Deep Subseafloor Biogeochemical Processes and Microbial Populations Potentially Associated with the 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake at the Japan Trench Accretionary Wedge (IODP Expedition 343).

Post-mega-earthquake geochemical and microbiological properties in subseafloor sediments of the Japan Trench accretionary wedge were investigated using core samples from Hole C0019E, which was drilled down to 851| |m below seafloor (mbsf) at a water depth of 6,890 m. Methane was abundant throughout accretionary prism sediments; however, its concentration decreased close to the plate boundary decollement. Methane isotope systematics indicated a biogenic origin. The content of mole-cular hydrogen (H2) was low throughout core samples, but markedly increased at specific depths that were close to potential faults predicted by logging-while-drilling ana-lyses. Based on isotopic systematics, H2 appeared to have been abundantly produced via a low-temperature interaction between pore water and the fresh surface of crushed rock induced by earthquakes. Subseafloor microbial cell density remained constant at approximately 105| |cells| |mL-1. Amplicon sequences revealed that predominant members at the phylum level were common throughout the units tested, which also included members frequently found in anoxic subseafloor sediments. Metabolic potential assays using radioactive isotopes as tracers revealed homoacetogenic activity in H2-enriched core samples collected near the fault. Furthermore, homoacetogenic bacteria, including Acetobacterium carbinolicum, were isolated from similar samples. Therefore, post-earthquake subseafloor microbial communities in the Japan Trench accretionary prism appear to be episodically dominated by homoacetogenic populations and potentially function due to the earthquake-induced low-temperature generation of H2. These post-earthquake microbial communities may eventually return to the steady-state communities dominated by oligotrophic heterotrophs and hydrogenotrophic and methylotrophic methanogens that are dependent on refractory organic matter in the sediment.

Forecasting water temperature in lakes and reservoirs using seasonal climate prediction.

Seasonal climate forecasts produce probabilistic predictions of meteorological variables for subsequent months. This provides a potential resource to predict the influence of seasonal climate anomalies on surface water balance in catchments and hydro-thermodynamics in related water bodies (e.g., lakes or reservoirs). Obtaining seasonal forecasts for impact variables (e.g., discharge and water temperature) requires a link between seasonal climate forecasts and impact models simulating hydrology and lake hydrodynamics and thermal regimes. However, this link remains challenging for stakeholders and the water scientific community, mainly due to the probabilistic nature of these predictions. In this paper, we introduce a feasible, robust, and open-source workflow integrating seasonal climate forecasts with hydrologic and lake models to generate seasonal forecasts of discharge and water temperature profiles. The workflow has been designed to be applicable to any catchment and associated lake or reservoir, and is optimized in this study for four catchment-lake systems to help in their proactive management. We assessed the performance of the resulting seasonal forecasts of discharge and water temperature by comparing them with hydrologic and lake (pseudo)observations (reanalysis). Precisely, we analysed the historical performance using a data sample of past forecasts and reanalysis to obtain information about the skill (performance or quality) of the seasonal forecast system to predict particular events. We used the current seasonal climate forecast system (SEAS5) and reanalysis (ERA5) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We found that due to the limited predictability at seasonal time-scales over the locations of the four case studies (Europe and South of Australia), seasonal forecasts exhibited none to low performance (skill) for the atmospheric variables considered. Nevertheless, seasonal forecasts for discharge present some skill in all but one case study. Moreover, seasonal forecasts for water temperature had higher performance in natural lakes than in reservoirs, which means human water control is a relevant factor affecting predictability, and the performance increases with water depth in all four case studies. Further investigation into the skillful water temperature predictions should aim to identify the extent to which performance is a consequence of thermal inertia (i.e., lead-in conditions).

Modeling geogenic and atmospheric nitrogen through the East River Watershed, Colorado Rocky Mountains.

There is a growing understanding of the role that bedrock weathering can play as a source of nitrogen (N) to soils, groundwater and river systems. The significance is particularly apparent in mountainous environments where weathering fluxes can be large. However, our understanding of the relative contributions of rock-derived, or geogenic, N to the total N supply of mountainous watersheds remains poorly understood. In this study, we develop the High-Altitude Nitrogen Suite of Models (HAN-SoMo), a watershed-scale ensemble of process-based models to quantify the relative sources, transformations, and sinks of geogenic and atmospheric N through a mountain watershed. Our study is based in the East River Watershed (ERW) in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The East River is a near-pristine headwater watershed underlain primarily by an N-rich Mancos Shale bedrock, enabling the timing and magnitude of geogenic and atmospheric contributions to watershed scale dissolved N-exports to be quantified. Several calibration scenarios were developed to explore equifinality using >1600 N concentration measurements from streams, groundwater, and vadose zone samples collected over the course of four years across the watershed. When accounting for recycling of N through plant litter turnover, rock weathering accounts for approximately 12% of the annual dissolved N sources to the watershed in the most probable calibration scenario (0-31% in other scenarios), and 21% (0-44% in other scenarios) when considering only "new" N sources (i.e. geogenic and atmospheric). On an annual scale, instream dissolved N elimination, plant turnover (including cattle grazing) and atmospheric deposition are the most important controls on N cycling.

Cleaner air reveals growing influence of climate on dissolved organic carbon trends in northern headwaters.

Surface water browning, the result of increasing concentrations of dissolved organic matter (DOM), has been widespread in northern ecosystems in recent decades. Here, we assess a database of 426 undisturbed headwater lakes and streams in Europe and North America for evidence of trends in DOM between 1990 and 2016. We describe contrasting changes in DOM trends in Europe (decelerating) and North America (accelerating), which are consistent with organic matter solubility responses to declines in sulfate deposition. While earlier trends (1990-2004) were almost entirely related to changes in atmospheric chemistry, climatic and chemical drivers were equally important in explaining recent DOM trends (2002-2016). We estimate that riverine DOM export from northern ecosystems increased by 27% during the study period. Increased summer precipitation strengthened upward dissolved organic carbon trends while warming apparently damped browning. Our results suggest strong but changing influences of air quality and climate on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and on the magnitude of carbon export from land to water.

Evaluating the use of in-situ turbidity measurements to quantify fluvial sediment and phosphorus concentrations and fluxes in agricultural streams.

Accurate quantification of suspended sediments (SS) and particulate phosphorus (PP) concentrations and loads is complex due to episodic delivery associated with storms and management activities often missed by infrequent sampling. Surrogate measurements such as turbidity can improve understanding of pollutant behaviour, providing calibrations can be made cost-effectively and with quantified uncertainties. Here, we compared fortnightly and storm intensive water quality sampling with semi-continuous turbidity monitoring calibrated against spot samples as three potential methods for determining SS and PP concentrations and loads in an agricultural catchment over two-years. In the second year of sampling we evaluated the transferability of turbidity calibration relationships to an adjacent catchment with similar soils and land cover. When data from nine storm events were pooled, both SS and PP concentrations (all in log space) were better related to turbidity than they were to discharge. Developing separate calibration relationship for the rising and falling limbs of the hydrograph provided further improvement. However, the ability to transfer calibrations between adjacent catchments was not evident as the relationships of both SS and PP with turbidity differed both in gradient and intercept on the rising limb of the hydrograph between the two catchments. We conclude that the reduced uncertainty in load estimation derived from the use of turbidity as a proxy for specific water quality parameters in long-term regulatory monitoring programmes, must be considered alongside the increased capital and maintenance costs of turbidity equipment, potentially noisy turbidity data and the need for site-specific prolonged storm calibration periods.

A tool for cost-effectiveness analysis of field scale sediment-bound phosphorus mitigation measures and application to analysis of spatial and temporal targeting in the Lunan Water catchment, Scotland.

The cost-effectiveness of six edge-of-field measures for mitigating diffuse pollution from sediment bound phosphorus (P) runoff from temperate arable farmland is analysed at catchment/field scales. These measures were: buffer strips, permanent grassland in the lowest 7% of arable fields, dry detention bunds, wetlands, and temporary barriers such as sediment fences. Baseline field P export was estimated using export coefficients (low risk crops) or a modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (high risk crops). The impact of measures was estimated using simple equations. Costs were estimated from gross margin losses or local data on grants. We used a net cost:benefit (NCB) factor to normalise the costs and impacts of each measure over time. Costs minimisation for target impact was done using PuLP, a linear programming module for Python, across 1634 riparian and non-riparian fields in the Lunan Water, a mixed arable catchment in Eastern Scotland. With all measures in place, average cost-effectiveness increases from £9 to £48/kg P as target P mitigation increases from 500 to 2500kg P across the catchment. Costs increase significantly when the measures available are restricted only to those currently eligible for government grants (buffers, bunds and wetlands). The assumed orientation of the average field slope makes a strong difference to the potential for storage of water by bunds and overall cost-effectiveness, but the non-funded measures can substitute for the extra expense incurred by bunds, where the slope orientation is not suitable. Economic discounting over time of impacts and costs of measures favours those measures, such as sediment fences, which are strongly targeted both spatially and temporally. This tool could be a useful guide for dialogue with land users about the potential fields to target for mitigation to achieve catchment targets.

Integrating economic and biophysical data in assessing cost-effectiveness of buffer strip placement.

The European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires Member States to set water quality objectives and identify cost-effective mitigation measures to achieve "good status" in all waters. However, costs and effectiveness of measures vary both within and between catchments, depending on factors such as land use and topography. The aim of this study was to develop a cost-effectiveness analysis framework for integrating estimates of phosphorus (P) losses from land-based sources, potential abatement using riparian buffers, and the economic implications of buffers. Estimates of field-by-field P exports and routing were based on crop risk and field slope classes. Buffer P trapping efficiencies were based on literature metadata analysis. Costs of placing buffers were based on foregone farm gross margins. An integrated optimization model of cost minimization was developed and solved for different P reduction targets to the Rescobie Loch catchment in eastern Scotland. A target mean annual P load reduction of 376 kg to the loch to achieve good status was identified. Assuming all the riparian fields initially have the 2-m buffer strip required by the General Binding Rules (part of the WFD in Scotland), the model gave good predictions of P loads (345-481 kg P). The modeling results show that riparian buffers alone cannot achieve the required P load reduction (up to 54% P can be removed). In the medium P input scenario, average costs vary from £38 to £176 kg P at 10% and 54% P reduction, respectively. The framework demonstrates a useful tool for exploring cost-effective targeting of environmental measures.