The health effects in the US of quarantine policies based on predicted individual risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes

BackgroundSocial distancing, testing and public health measures are the principal protections against COVID-19 in the US. Social distancing based on an accurate assessment of the individual risk of severe outcomes could reduce harm even as infection rates accelerate. MethodsAn SEIR dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 was created to simulate the disease in the US after October 2020. The model comprised 8 age groups with US-specific contact rates and low- and high-risk sub-groups defined in terms of the risk of a severe outcome determined by relevant comorbidities and a genetic test. Monte Carlo analysis was used to compare quarantine measures applied to at risk persons identified with and without the genetic test. ResultsUnder the piecemeal social distancing measures currently in place, absent a vaccine the US can expect 114 million symptomatic infections, 4.8 million hospitalisations and 262,000 COVID-19 related deaths. Social distancing based solely on comorbidities with 80% compliance reduces symptomatic infections by between 1.2 and 2.2 million, hospitalisations by between 1.2 and 1.3 million, and deaths by between 71,800 and 80,900. Refining the definition of at risk using a test of single-nucleotide polymorphisms further reduces symptomatic infections by 1.0 to 1.2 million, hospitalisations by 0.4 million and deaths by between 20,500 and 24,100. ConclusionsModels are now available that can accurately predict the likelihood of severe COVID-19 outcomes based on age, sex, comorbidities and polygenetic testing. Quarantine based on risk of severe outcomes could substantially reduce pandemic harm, even when infection rates outside of quarantine are high.

Supersonically Sprayed Washable, Wearable, Stretchable, Hydrophobic, and Antibacterial rGO/AgNW Fabric for Multifunctional Sensors and Supercapacitors.

Wearable electronic textiles are used in sensors, energy-harvesting devices, healthcare monitoring, human-machine interfaces, and soft robotics to acquire real-time big data for machine learning and artificial intelligence. Wearability is essential while collecting data from a human, who should be able to wear the device with sufficient comfort. In this study, reduced graphene oxide (rGO) and silver nanowires (AgNWs) were supersonically sprayed onto a fabric to ensure good adhesiveness, resulting in a washable, stretchable, and wearable fabric without affecting the performance of the designed features. This rGO/AgNW-decorated fabric can be used to monitor external stimuli such as strain and temperature. In addition, it is used as a heater and as a supercapacitor and features an antibacterial hydrophobic surface that minimizes potential infection from external airborne viruses or virus-containing droplets. Herein, the wearability, stretchability, washability, mechanical durability, temperature-sensing capability, heating ability, wettability, and antibacterial features of this metallized fabric are explored. This multifunctionality is achieved in a single fabric coated with rGO/AgNWs via supersonic spraying.

Involvement of prenucleation clusters in calcium phosphate mineralization of collagen.

Involvement of thermodynamically-stable prenucleation clusters (PNCs) in the biomineralization of collagen has been speculated since their existence was reported in mineralization systems. It has been hypothesized that intrafibrillar mineralization proceeds via nucleation of inhibitor-stabilized intermediates produced by liquid-liquid separation (aka. polymer-induced liquid precursors; PILPs). Here, the contribution of PNCs and PILPs to calcium phosphate intrafibrillar mineralization of collagen was examined in a model with a semipermeable membrane that excludes nucleation inhibitor-stabilized PILPs from reaching the collagen fibrils, using cryogenic electron microscopy of reconstituted fibrils and conventional transmission electron microscopy of collagen sponges. Molecular dynamics simulation with the Interface force field (IFF) was used to confirm the existence of PILPs with amorphous calcium phosphate and elucidate details of the dynamics. Furthermore, intrafibrillar mineralization of single collagen fibrils was experimentally observed with unstabilized PNCs when anionic/cationic polyelectrolytes were used to establish Donnan equilibrium across the semipermeable membrane. Molecular dynamics simulation verified PNC formation within the collagen intrafibrillar gap zones at the atomic scale and explained the role of external PILPs. The PILPs decrease the interfibrillar water content and increase the interfibrillar ionic concentration. Nevertheless, intrafibrillar mineralization of collagen sponges with PNCs alone was inefficacious, being constrained by competition from extrafibrillar mineral precipitation. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Compared with conventional PILP-based intrafibrillar mineralization, mineralization of collagen fibrils using unstabilized PNCs is constrained by competition from extrafibrillar mineral deposition. The narrow window of opportunity for PNCs to produce intrafibrillar mineralization provides a plausible explanation for the feasibility of nucleation inhibitor-free intrafibrillar apatite assembly during reconstitution of type I collagen.

Ni-core CuO-shell fibers produced by electrospinning and electroplating as efficient photocathode materials for solar water splitting.

Charge recombination in CuO photocathodes inhibits efficient electron flow and limits the photo-electrochemical performance of these cathodes for solar water splitting. To circumvent this shortcoming, we introduce highly conductive Ni/CuO core-shell structured fibers. The photocurrent density (PCD) achieved with these core-shell fibers exceeded that of fibers without a Ni core by a factor of 2.6. The PCD enhancement arises from increased acceptor concentration and electron-hole recombination time, as measured by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. These core-shell nanofibers were fabricated via electrospinning and electroplating. First, a polyacrylonitrile fiber was electrospun and then seeded with metal via sputtering. Second, electroplating was used to encase and metalize the fiber with Ni and Cu. Finally, the outermost Cu shell was oxidized to CuO, which is an effective photocathode for solar water splitting. The Ni-CuO, core-shell layers were characterized by scanning electron microscopy, elemental mapping, X-ray diffraction, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The core Ni content and number of core-shell fibers per area were optimized through parametric studies.