A multi-centre longitudinal study analysing multiple sclerosis disease-modifying therapy prescribing patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic raised concern amongst clinicians that disease-modifying therapies (DMT), particularly anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies (mAb) and fingolimod, could worsen COVID-19 in people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS). This study aimed to examine DMT prescribing trends pre- and post-pandemic onset. METHODS: A multi-centre longitudinal study with 8,771 participants from MSBase was conducted. Two time periods were defined: pre-pandemic (March 11 2018-March 10 2020) and post-pandemic onset (March 11 2020-11 March 2022). The association between time and prescribing trends was analysed using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression. DMT initiation refers to first initiation of any DMT, whilst DMT switches indicate changing regimen within 6 months of last use. RESULTS: Post-pandemic onset, there was a significant increase in DMT initiation/switching to natalizumab and cladribine [(Natalizumab-initiation: OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.39-2.13; switching: OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.40-1.98), (Cladribine-initiation: OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09-1.87; switching: OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.41-1.98)]. Anti-CD20mAb initiation/switching decreased in the year of the pandemic, but recovered in the second year, such that overall odds increased slightly post-pandemic (initiation: OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.06-1.49; Switching: OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02-1.29. Initiation/switching of fingolimod, interferon-beta, and alemtuzumab significantly decreased [(Fingolimod-initiation: OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.41-0.73; switching: OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.41-0.58), (Interferon-gamma-initiation: OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.41-0.57; switching: OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.99), (Alemtuzumab-initiation: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.15-0.48; switching: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.17-0.44)]. CONCLUSIONS: Post-pandemic onset, clinicians preferentially prescribed natalizumab and cladribine over anti-CD20 mAbs and fingolimod, likely to preserve efficacy but reduce perceived immunosuppressive risks. This could have implications for disease progression in pwMS. Our findings highlight the significance of equitable DMT access globally, and the importance of evidence-based decision-making in global health challenges.

Decisional Conflict Regarding Disease-Modifying Treatment Choices Among Patients with Mid-Stage Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis.

Purpose: Shared decision-making is critical in multiple sclerosis (MS) due to the uncertainty of the disease trajectory over time and the large number of treatment options with differing efficacy, safety and administration characteristics. The aim of this study was to assess patients' decisional conflict regarding the choice of a disease-modifying therapy and its associated factors in patients with mid-stage relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Methods: A multicenter, non-interventional study was conducted. Adult patients with a diagnosis of RRMS (2017 revised McDonald criteria) and disease duration of 3 to 8 years were included. The level of uncertainty experienced by a patient when faced with making a treatment choice was assessed using the 4-item Decisional Conflict Scale. A battery of patient-reported and clinician-rated measures was administered to obtain information on symptom severity, illness perception, illness-related uncertainty, regret, MS knowledge, risk taking behavior, preferred role in the decision-making process, cognition, and self-management. Patients were recruited during routine follow-up visits and completed all questionnaires online using electronic tablets at the hospital. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted. Results: A total of 201 patients were studied. Mean age (Standard deviation) was 38.7 (8.4) years and 74.1% were female. Median disease duration (Interquartile range) was 6.0 (4.0-7.0) years. Median EDSS score was 1.0 (0-2.0). Sixty-seven (33.3%) patients reported a decisional conflict. These patients had lower MS knowledge and more illness uncertainty, anxiety, depressive symptoms, fatigue, subjective symptom severity, a threatening illness perception, and poorer quality of life than their counterparts. Lack of decisional conflict was associated with MS knowledge (Odds ratio [OR]=1.195, 95% CI 1.045, 1.383, p=0.013), self-management (OR=1.049, 95% CI 1.013, 1.093, p=0.018), and regret after a healthcare decision (OR=0.860, 95% CI 0.756, 0.973, p=0.018) in the multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Decisional conflict regarding the selection of a disease-modifying therapy was a common phenomenon in patients with mid-stage RRMS. Identifying factors associated with decisional conflict may be useful to implement preventive strategies that help patients better understand their condition and strengthen their self-management resources.

Routine CSF parameters as predictors of disease course in multiple sclerosis: an MSBase cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters can serve as predictors of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease course. METHODS: This large-scale cohort study included persons with MS with CSF data documented in the MSBase registry. CSF parameters to predict time to reach confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores 4, 6 and 7 and annualised relapse rate in the first 2 years after diagnosis (ARR2) were assessed using (cox) regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 11 245 participants were included of which 93.7% (n=10 533) were persons with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). In RRMS, the presence of CSF oligoclonal bands (OCBs) was associated with shorter time to disability milestones EDSS 4 (adjusted HR=1.272 (95% CI, 1.089 to 1.485), p=0.002), EDSS 6 (HR=1.314 (95% CI, 1.062 to 1.626), p=0.012) and EDSS 7 (HR=1.686 (95% CI, 1.111 to 2.558), p=0.014). On the other hand, the presence of CSF pleocytosis (≥5 cells/µL) increased time to moderate disability (EDSS 4) in RRMS (HR=0.774 (95% CI, 0.632 to 0.948), p=0.013). None of the CSF variables were associated with time to disability milestones in persons with primary progressive MS (PPMS). The presence of CSF pleocytosis increased ARR2 in RRMS (adjusted R2=0.036, p=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: In RRMS, the presence of CSF OCBs predicts shorter time to disability milestones, whereas CSF pleocytosis could be protective. This could however not be found in PPMS. CSF pleocytosis is associated with short-term inflammatory disease activity in RRMS. CSF analysis provides prognostic information which could aid in clinical and therapeutic decision-making.

Assessing illness-related uncertainty in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: A psychometric analysis of the Mishel Uncertainty of Illness Scale.

A multicenter study involving 204 adults with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) assessed the dimensionality and item characteristics of the Mishel-Uncertainty of Illness Scale (MUIS), a generic self-assessment tool. Mokken analysis identified two dimensions in the MUIS with an appropriate item and overall scale scalability after excluding nonclassifiable items. A refined 12-item MUIS, employing a grade response model, effectively discriminated uncertainty levels among RRMS patients (likelihood ratio test p-value = .03). These findings suggest the potential value of the 12-item MUIS as a reliable measure for assessing uncertainty associated with the course of illness in RRMS.

Effectiveness and Safety of Teriflunomide in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis and Improvements in Quality of Life: Results from the Real-World TERICARE Study.

INTRODUCTION: Teriflunomide is a once-daily oral immunomodulator approved for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) or relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS; depending on the local label), based on extensive evidence from clinical trials and a real-world setting on efficacy, tolerability and patient-reported benefits. The TERICARE study assessed the impact of teriflunomide treatment over 2 years on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and some of the most common and disabling symptoms of MS, such as fatigue and depression. METHODS: This prospective observational study in Spain included RRMS patients treated with teriflunomide for ≤ 4 weeks. The following patient-reported outcomes (PROs) were collected at baseline and every 6 months for 2 years: the 29-item Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale version 2 (MSIS-29), the 21-item Modified Fatigue Impact Scale (MFIS-21), the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II), the Short Form (SF)-Qualiveen and the Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire for Medication v1.4 (TSQM). Annualised relapse rate (ARR), disability progression according to the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), and no evidence of disease activity (NEDA-3) were also assessed. RESULTS: A total of 325 patients were analysed. Patients had a mean (SD) age of 43.2 years (10.4), a mean baseline EDSS score of 1.75 (1.5), a mean number of relapses in the past 2 years of 1.5 (0.7), and 64% had received prior disease-modifying therapy (DMT). Patients showed significant improvements in the psychological domain of MSIS-29 from 35.9 (26.6) at baseline to 29.4 (25.5) at 18 months (p = 0.004) and 29.0 (24.6) at 24 months (p = 0.002). Levels of fatigue and depression were also reduced. After 2 years of treatment with teriflunomide, ARR was reduced to 0.17 (95% CI 0.14-0.21) from the baseline of 0.42 (95% CI 0.38-0.48), representing a 60.1% reduction. Mean EDSS scores remained stable during the study, and 79.9% of patients showed no disability progression. 54.7% of patients achieved NEDA-3 in the first 12 months, which increased to 61.4% during months 12-24. Patients reported increased satisfaction with treatment over the course of the study, regardless of whether they were DMT naive or not. CONCLUSION: Teriflunomide improves psychological aspects of HRQoL and maintains low levels of fatigue and depression. Treatment with teriflunomide over 2 years is effective in reducing ARR and disability progression.

Effectiveness of multiple disease-modifying therapies in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: causal inference to emulate a multiarm randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years. METHODS: Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement. RESULTS: 23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

A plain language summary on the effectiveness of cladribine tablets compared with other oral treatments for multiple sclerosis: results from the MSBase registry.

WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?: Patient registries contain anonymous data from people who share the same medical condition. The MSBase registry contains information from over 80,000 people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) across 41 countries. Using information from the MSBase registry, the GLIMPSE (Generating Learnings In MultiPle SclErosis) study looked at real-life outcomes in 3475 people living with MS who were treated with cladribine tablets (Mavenclad®) compared with other oral treatments. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS?: Results showed that people treated with cladribine tablets stayed on treatment for longer than other treatments given by mouth. They also had fewer relapses (also called flare ups of symptoms) than people who received a different oral treatment for their MS. WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?: The results provide evidence that, compared with other oral treatments for MS, cladribine tablets are an effective medicine for people living with MS.

Hopelessness in Patients with Early-Stage Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis.

Background: Hopelessness is a risk factor for depression and suicide. There is little information on this phenomenon among patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), one of the most common causes of disability and loss of autonomy in young adults. The aim of this study was to assess state hopelessness and its associated factors in early-stage RRMS. Methods: A multicenter, non-interventional study was conducted. Adult patients with a diagnosis of RRMS, a disease duration ≤ 3 years, and an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of 0-5.5 were included. The State-Trait Hopelessness Scale (STHS) was used to measure patients´ hopelessness. A battery of patient-reported and clinician-rated measurements was used to assess clinical status. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the association between patients' characteristics and state hopelessness. Results: A total of 189 patients were included. Mean age (standard deviation-SD) was 36.1 (9.4) years and 71.4% were female. Median disease duration (interquartile range-IQR) was 1.4 (0.7, 2.1) years. Symptom severity and disability were low with a median EDSS (IQR) score of 1.0 (0, 2.0). A proportion of 65.6% (n=124) of patients reported moderate-to-severe hopelessness. Hopelessness was associated with older age (p=0.035), depressive symptoms (p=<0.001), a threatening illness perception (p=0.001), and psychological and cognitive barriers to workplace performance (p=0.029) in the multivariate analysis after adjustment for confounders. Conclusion: Hopelessness was a common phenomenon in early-stage RRMS, even in a population with low physical disability. Identifying factors associated with hopelessness may be critical for implementing preventive strategies helping patients to adapt to the new situation and cope with the disease in the long term.

Detecting disability using self-reported and clinical assessments in early-stage relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: Looking for a complementary approach.

Disability accrual is mainly driven by progression independent of relapse activity, which is present even in early stages of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and sometimes overlooked. This multicenter, non-interventional study evaluated whether patient-reported outcomes measures (PROMs) could capture disability in 189 early-stage RRMS patients (mean age: 36.1 ± 9.4 years, 71.4% female, mean disease duration: 1.4 ± 0.8 years, median EDSS: 1.0). The 9-Hole Peg Test (9-HPT), NeuroQoL Upper Extremity (NeuroQoL-UE), Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25-FW), Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale (MSWS-12), Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), and Perceived Deficits Questionnaire (PDQ-5) were used to assess hand function, gait, and cognition, respectively. These functions were at least mildly affected in this early-stage population, finding significant correlations between PROMs and clinical assessments. PROMs could enable early-stage RRMS patients to communicate their perceived disability in different domains, assisting clinicians in disease monitoring and decision making.

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS. METHODS: We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS. RESULTS: Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

Comparative effectiveness of cladribine tablets versus other oral disease-modifying treatments for multiple sclerosis: Results from MSBase registry.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of cladribine tablets, an oral disease-modifying treatment (DMT) for multiple sclerosis (MS), was established in clinical trials and confirmed with real-world experience. OBJECTIVES: Use real-world data to compare treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in people with MS (pwMS) treated with cladribine tablets versus other oral DMTs. METHODS: Retrospective treatment comparisons were based on data from the international MSBase registry. Eligible pwMS started treatment with cladribine, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide tablets from 2018 to mid-2021 and were censored at treatment discontinuation/switch, death, loss to follow-up, pregnancy, or study period end. Treatment persistence was evaluated as time to discontinuation/switch; relapse outcomes included time to first relapse and annualized relapse rate (ARR). RESULTS: Cohorts included 633 pwMS receiving cladribine tablets, 1195 receiving fingolimod, 912 receiving dimethyl fumarate, and 735 receiving teriflunomide. Individuals treated with fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide switched treatment significantly more quickly than matched cladribine tablet cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 4.00 (2.54-6.32), 7.04 (4.16-11.93), and 6.52 (3.79-11.22), respectively). Cladribine tablet cohorts had significantly longer time-to-treatment discontinuation, time to first relapse, and lower ARR, compared with other oral DMT cohorts. CONCLUSION: Cladribine tablets were associated with a significantly greater real-world treatment persistence and more favorable relapse outcomes than all oral DMT comparators.

Heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories in patients with secondary progressive MS: a latent class analysis from Big MS Data network.

BACKGROUND: Over the decades, several natural history studies on patients with primary (PPMS) or secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) were reported from international registries. In PPMS, a consistent heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories was demonstrated. The aim of this study was to identify subgroups of patients with SPMS with similar longitudinal trajectories of disability over time. METHODS: All patients with MS collected within Big MS registries who received an SPMS diagnosis from physicians (cohort 1) or satisfied the Lorscheider criteria (cohort 2) were considered. Longitudinal Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were modelled by a latent class growth analysis (LCGA), using a non-linear function of time from the first EDSS visit in the range 3-4. RESULTS: A total of 3613 patients with SPMS were included in the cohort 1. LCGA detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild (n=1297; 35.9%), a moderate (n=1936; 53.6%) and a severe (n=380; 10.5%) disability trajectory. Median time to EDSS 6 was 12.1, 5.0 and 1.7 years, for the three groups, respectively; the probability to reach EDSS 6 at 8 years was 14.4%, 78.4% and 98.3%, respectively. Similar results were found among 7613 patients satisfying the Lorscheider criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to previous interpretations, patients with SPMS progress at greatly different rates. Our identification of distinct trajectories can guide better patient selection in future phase 3 SPMS clinical trials. Additionally, distinct trajectories could reflect heterogeneous pathological mechanisms of progression.

Delayed cognitive processing and treatment status quo bias in early-stage multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The evolving therapeutic landscape requires more participation of patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) in treatment decisions. The aim of this study was to assess the association between patient's self-perception, cognitive impairment and behavioral factors in treatment choices in a cohort of patients at an early stage of RRMS. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, non-interventional study including adult patients with a diagnosis of RRMS, a disease duration ≤18 months and receiving care at one of the 21 participating MS centers from across Spain. We used patient-reported measures to gather information on fatigue, mood, quality of life, and perception of severity of their MS. Functional metrics (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS], cognitive function by the Symbol Digit Modalities Test [SDMT], 25-foot walk test) and clinical and radiological data were provided by the treating neurologist. The primary outcome of the study was status quo (SQ) bias, defined as participant's tendency to continue taking a previously selected but inferior treatment when intensification was warranted. SQ bias was assessed based on participants treatment preference in six simulated RRMS case scenarios with evidence of clinical relapses and radiological disease progression. RESULTS: Of 189 participants who met the inclusion criteria, 188 (99.5%) fully completed the study. The mean age was 36.6 ± 9.5 years, 70.7% female, mean disease duration: 1.2 ± 0.8 years, median EDSS score: 1.0 [IQR=0.0-2.0]). Overall, 43.1% patients (n = 81/188) had an abnormal SDMT (≤49 correct answers). SQ bias was observed in at least one case scenario in 72.3% (137/188). Participant's perception of their MS severity was associated with higher SQ bias (ß coeff 0.042; 95% CI 0.0074-0.076) among those with delayed cognitive processing. Higher baseline EDSS and number of T2 lesions were predictors of delayed processing speed (OR EDSS=1.57, 95% CI: 1.11-2.21, p = 0.011; OR T2 lesions=1.50, 95% CI: 1.11-2.03, p<0.01). Bayesian multilevel model accounting for clustering showed that delayed cognitive processing (exp coeff 1.06; 95% CI 1.04-1.09) and MS symptoms severity (exp coeff 1.28; 95% CI 1.22-1.33) were associated with SQ bias. CONCLUSION: Over 40% of patients in earlier stages of RRMS experience delays in cognitive processing that might affect their decision-making ability. Our findings suggest that patients' self-perception of disease severity combined with a delay in cognitive processing would affect treatment choices leading to status quo bias early in the course of their disease.

Long-term prognosis communication preferences in early-stage relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis is one of the most common causes of neurological disability in young adults with major consequences for their future lives. Improving communication strategies on prognosis may help patients deal with the disease and adjust their long-term life goals. However, there is limited information on patients' preferences of long-term prognosis (LTP) communication and associated factors. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe patients' preferences and assess the factors associated with LTP communication preferences in early-stage relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients. METHODS: A multicenter, non-interventional study was conducted. Adult patients with a diagnosis of RRMS, a disease duration from first attack ≤ 3 years, and an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of 0-5.5 were included. The Prognosis in MS questionnaire was used to assess how much patients want to know about their LTP. Different patient-reported measures were administered to gather information on symptom severity, pain, fatigue, mood/anxiety, quality of life, stigma, illness perception, feeling of hopelessness, self-efficacy, information avoidance and coping strategies. Cognition was assessed using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association between LTP information preference and demographic and clinical characteristics, as well as patients' perspectives. RESULTS: A total of 189 patients were included (mean age: 36.1  ±  9.4 years, 71.4% female, mean disease duration: 1.2  ±  0.8 years). Median EDSS score was 1.0 (IQR = 0.0-2.0). A proportion of 68.5% (n  =  126) of patients had never discussed LTP with their neurologists, whereas 69.2% (n = 126) reported interest in knowing it (73.5% at diagnosis). Bivariate analyses suggested that patients were significantly more likely to have higher LTP information preferences if they were male and had a lower SDMT score. Male gender and a lower SDMT score were predictors of LTP information preferences. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with early-stage RRMS want to discuss their LTP shortly after diagnosis. Understanding the factors involved may be useful to design individualized communication strategies.

Confirmed disability progression as a marker of permanent disability in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. METHODS: In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. RESULTS: The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

Measuring productivity loss in early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis is one of the most common causes of neurological disability in young adults with major consequences for their autonomy and capacity to maintain employment. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the impact on work productivity in early-stage relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). METHODS: A multicenter, non-interventional study was conducted. Adult patients with a diagnosis of RRMS, a disease duration ≤ 3 years, and an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of 0-5.5 were included. Absenteeism, presenteeism, and unpaid work loss due to RRMS were measured using the Valuation of Lost Productivity (VOLP) questionnaire. The EDSS, SymptoMScreen, 5-item Modified Fatigue Impact Scale, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Symbol Digit Modalities Test, and Multiple Sclerosis Work Difficulties Questionnaire were used to gather information on disability, patients' perception of symptom severity, fatigue, mood/anxiety, cognition, and problems in the workplace, respectively. Associations between the VOLP and clinical and work outcomes were analyzed using Spearman's rank correlations. RESULTS: A total of 189 patients were included. Mean age (SD) was 36.1 ± 9.4 years and 71.4% were female. Mean disease duration was 1.2 ± 0.8 years. Median EDSS score was 1.0 (IQR 0, 2.0). One hundred thirty patients (68.8%) were working for pay or self-employed. Fifty-three patients (40.8%) reported absence from work in the past 3 months with an average of 14.3 absent workdays. Their health problems resulted in the loss of 3.4% of their actual work time in the past 7 days. Thirty patients got help (11.8 h) with their unpaid work activities in the past 7 days. Absenteeism was significantly correlated with anxiety and depression (rho=0.298 and 0.291, p<0.001), fatigue (rho=0.214, p = 0.014), and symptom severity (rho=0.213, p = 0.015). Presenteeism was significantly correlated with fatigue (rho=0.375, p<0.001), symptom severity (rho=0.373, p<0.001), depression (rho=0.263, p = 0.008), and disability (rho=0.215, p = 0.031). CONCLUSIONS: Productivity loss even in a RRMS population with short disease duration stresses the need for more efficient treatment control of disease activity from earlier stages.

Longitudinal machine learning modeling of MS patient trajectories improves predictions of disability progression.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem. METHODS: We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used. RESULTS: We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS.

Effect of Disease-Modifying Therapy on Disability in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis Over 15 Years.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that immunotherapy prevents long-term disability in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS), we modeled disability outcomes in 14,717 patients. METHODS: We studied patients from MSBase followed for ≥1 year, with ≥3 visits, ≥1 visit per year, and exposed to MS therapy, and a subset of patients with ≥15-year follow-up. Marginal structural models were used to compare the cumulative hazards of 12-month confirmed increase and decrease in disability, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) step 6, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Marginal structural models were continuously readjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, disease course, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability, and MRI activity. RESULTS: A total of 14,717 patients were studied. During the treated periods, patients were less likely to experience relapses (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-0.82, p = 0.0016), worsening of disability (0.56, 0.38-0.82, p = 0.0026), and progress to EDSS step 6 (0.33, 0.19-0.59, p = 0.00019). Among 1,085 patients with ≥15-year follow-up, the treated patients were less likely to experience relapses (0.59, 0.50-0.70, p = 10-9) and worsening of disability (0.81, 0.67-0.99, p = 0.043). CONCLUSION: Continued treatment with MS immunotherapies reduces disability accrual by 19%-44% (95% CI 1%-62%), the risk of need of a walking aid by 67% (95% CI 41%-81%), and the frequency of relapses by 40-41% (95% CI 18%-57%) over 15 years. This study provides evidence that disease-modifying therapies are effective in improving disability outcomes in relapsing-remitting MS over the long term. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class IV evidence that, for patients with relapsing-remitting MS, long-term exposure to immunotherapy prevents neurologic disability.

Disability outcomes of early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Cerebellar and brainstem symptoms are common in early stages of multiple sclerosis (MS) yet their prognostic values remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate long-term disability outcomes in patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms. METHODS: This study used data from MSBase registry. Patients with early cerebellar/brainstem presentations were identified as those with cerebellar/brainstem relapse(s) or functional system score ⩾ 2 in the initial 2 years. Early pyramidal presentation was chosen as a comparator. Andersen-Gill models were used to compare cumulative hazards of (1) disability progression events and (2) relapses between patients with and without early cerebellar/brainstem symptoms. Mixed effect models were used to estimate the associations between early cerebellar/brainstem presentations and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) scores. RESULTS: The study cohort consisted of 10,513 eligible patients, including 2723 and 3915 patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms, respectively. Early cerebellar presentation was associated with greater hazard of progression events (HR = 1.37, p < 0.001) and EDSS (ß = 0.16, p < 0.001). Patients with early brainstem symptoms had lower hazard of progression events (HR = 0.89, p = 0.01) and EDSS (ß = -0.06, p < 0.001). Neither presentation was associated with changes in relapse risk. CONCLUSION: Early cerebellar presentation is associated with unfavourable outcomes, while early brainstem presentation is associated with favourable prognosis. These presentations may be used as MS prognostic markers and guide therapeutic approach.