A Semiempirical Dynamical Model to Forecast the Propagation of Epidemics: The Case of the Sars-Cov-2 in Spain

A semi-empirical model, based on the logistic map approach, was developed and applied to forecast the different phases of the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic. This model can be used to make predictions of the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in different spatial scales: from a world scale to a country or even a smaller scale. Predictions on persons hospitalized, number of ventilators needed at ICUs and potential numbers of deaths were successfully carried out in different countries using this approach. This paper shows the mathematical basis for the model together with a proposal for its calibration on the different phases of the epidemic. Specific results are shown for the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain. For predicting the evolution of the epidemic four phases were considered: non-controlled evolution since the 20th of February; total lock-down from the 15th of March; partial easing of the lock-down from the 13th of April; and a phased lock-down easing from the 1st of May. In a first phase, if no control is established, the model predicted in Spain 12 millions of infected people of a total of 46.6 millions inhabitants. From those infected nearly 1 million people would need intensive care and around 700,000 deaths would be directly produced by the disease. However, as these numbers would occur in a brief period (few months), the number of deaths would have been higher due to the saturation of the health system. For a second phase, considering a total lock-down of the whole country from the 15th of March, the model predicted for the 17th of April 194,000 symptomatic infected cases, 85,700 hospitalized, nearly 8,600 patients with needs of an ICU and 19,500 deaths. The model also predicted the peak to be produced between the 29th of March and the 3rd of April. Although the data are still under revision, the accuracy in all the predictions was very good, as the reported values by that day were 197,142 infected, 7,548 inpatients needing an ICU and 20,043 deaths. The peak was produced between the 31st of May and the 2nd of April. For the third phase, the ease of the lock-down which began the 13th of April, early predictions were made by the beginning of April [Mora et al., 2020]. Assuming conservatively an infection daily rate of a 3% (r = 1.03) the model predicted 400,000 infections and 46, 000 {+/-} 15,000 deaths by the end of May. The predictions overestimated the real values, due to a stricter reduction of the infection daily rate which lead to values of r < 1% and a revision of the whole series of data by the health authorities carried out along the month of May. A new prediction performed with updated parameters at the beginning of May provided a prediction of 250,000 infected and 29,000 {+/-} 15,000 deaths. The reported values by the end of May were 282,870 infected and 28,552 deaths. After the total easing of the lock-down many uncertainties appear, but the model predicts that the health system would not saturate if the daily rate of infections r is kept below 1.02 (2% of daily increase in the number of symptomatic infected). This simple model provides a system to predict the evolution of epidemics with a good accuracy, even during epidemics development, where other systems have difficulties in their calibration. As the parameters involved in the model are based in empirical values of the different quantities (e.g. number of inpatients or deaths, related with the number of infected persons) it can be dynamically adjusted and adapted to sudden changes in the statistics. As other models, the results provided by this model can be used by the authorities to support decision making in order to optimize resources and to minimize the consequences of epidemics, including the future outbreaks of the COVID-19 which will occur.

Characterization of the first bovine gammaherpesvirus 4 strain isolated from an aborted bovine fetus in Argentina.

Bovine herpesvirus 4 (BoHV-4) is increasingly believed to be responsible for several disorders of the bovine reproductive tract. The first characterization of BoHV-4 in Argentina was from samples from an aborted fetus. Argentinean isolates are highly diverse and are phylogenetically grouped in three genotypes. In this study, we describe the isolation of BoHV-4 from a bovine fetus with a gestational age of 8 months and without macroscopic lesions. Genetic analyses revealed that the isolated strain belongs to genotype 2. This is the first report on the presence of infectious BoHV-4 in tissues from an aborted bovine fetus.

First Report of a New Isolate of Metarhizium rileyi from Maize Fields of Quivicán, Cuba.

Metarhizium rileyi (Farlow) Samson is an important entomopathogenic fungus of more than 30 species of Lepidoptera larvae. The aim of this research was to characterize isolate of M. rileyi from Quivicán, Cuba on the basis of morphological and molecular approaches. The fungus was isolated from samples of S. frugiperda larvae collected from maize fields of Quivicán municipality, Mayabeque province, Cuba, and it was cultured on PDA + Ampicillin solid media for morphological characterization. The DNA was isolated using CTAB method and internal transcribed spacer (ITS1, ITS4) were used as the primers for the amplification. The amplified products of 1335 bp were purified and sequenced at CINVESTAV-IPN in both the directions using the above primers. A consensus sequence was obtained by alignment of the forward and reverse sequences for this region and deposited in GenBank (MG637450). The fungus produced slightly cottony colony of pale green color and dispersed conidia and septal mycelium were observed under the optical microscope. A BLAST search of the sequence in GenBank revealed a 99% of identity with several strains of N. rileyi (e.g., AF368501.1, AB268359.1 and EU553337.1) and M. rileyi (e.g., KY436756.1). This is the first report of M. rileyi isolate from maize fields of Quivicán in Cuba and this is important for biodiversity studies and is another possibility for Integrated Pest Management.

Psychometric properties of the Purpose-In-Life Test and age-related differences among women diagnosed with eating disorders.

The aim of this study was to analyze the psychometric properties of the Purpose-In-Life Test (PIL), as well as the age-related differences in meaning in life in women diagnosed with eating disorders. Participants were 250 Spanish women diagnosed with eating disorders who ranged from 12 to 60 years old. Confirmatory Factor Analysis, descriptive analyses, estimation of the internal consistency of the PIL, correlations between the PIL and the Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS), Overweight Preoccupation Scale (OPS), and Body Investment Scale (BIS), and age differences were calculated. A 19-item model that showed a good fit and internal consistency, a negative correlation between the PIL and both the BHS and OPS, and a positive correlation with the BIS, as well as significant differences between the adolescents and the mature adults, were found. It would be advisable to increase the inclusion of meaning in life in psychotherapeutic interventions with women diagnosed with eating disorders.

Uptake and metabolism of carbamazepine (CBZ) by clam Ruditapes decussatus and its effects in biochemical responses.

1. Laboratory experiments were carried out to assess uptake and metabolism of the epilepsy drug, carbamazepine and its consequent biological responses in marine clam (Ruditapes decussatus) a model non-target organism in ecotoxicology. 2. Clams were exposed to two nominal concentrations (C1 = 30 µg/L and C2 = 50 µg/L) of CBZ for a maximum period of 14 days. Analysis of CBZ and their metabolites in clam and water after exposure to two nominal concentrations of the pharmaceutical drug were performed using UPLC-HRMS analysis. CBZ accumulation reached an average tissue concentration of 1241.59 ng/g dw and 1664.33 ng/g dw at low and high nominal concentration, respectively. 3. Furthermore, a metabolite (3-hydroxy-CBZ) was detected in tissues indicating carbamazepine translocation and metabolism inside clam, suspect screening of CBZ glucuronides was also performed by accurate mass extraction but it could not be detected. 4. Activities of antioxidant enzymes superoxide dismutase, catalase and gluthatione-S-transferase generally increased. Change in the contents of glutathione, malondialdehyde and protein carbonyl were also studied. 5. Results indicated that the bioaccumulation of CBZ resulted in the changes of the antioxidant defense system and the production of ROS with the oxidative stress, ultimately induced alteration in lipid peroxidation and protein carbonyl.

Expression analysis and biochemical characterization of beans plants biofortificated with zinc.

The present work was carried out in greenhouse conditions at the Centro de Investigación en Alimentación y Desarrollo AC in Delicias, Chihuahua, México. Four different concentrations (0, 25, 50 and 100 µM L-1) of Zn chelate and sulfate were used to study the antioxidant system of Phaseolus vulgaris L. Three genes related with antioxidant activity [superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) and catalase (CAT)] were selected for expression study. Results showed that when Zn chelate at 50 and 100 µM L-1 were applied SOD was repressed and GSH-Px expression was low at 0, 25 and 100 µM L-1 while with sulfate form SOD expression was low and GSH-Px expression was strong in all treatment. CAT was highly expressed in all form and treatments. For a biochemical study the same enzymes were spectrophotometrically measured. SOD activity shows differences in both forms of Zn, chelate form was different at 25, 50 and 100 µM L-1 with less activity at 100 µM L-1 and sulfate treatment shows differences in all concentrations used. GSH-Px activity shows significant differences with sulfate form at 25, 50 µM L-1 where at 50 µM the activity was higher and low at 100 µM L-1, CAT does not exhibit significant differences but with chelate treatment at 50-100 µM L-1 the activity was higher compared to sulfate. Finally, to raise the Zn concentration in bean under biofortification program is a promising strategy in cropping systems in order to increase the ingestion of zinc and antioxidant capacity in the general population and provided the benefits that this element offered in human health.

Results of the prophylactic surgery of lumbosacral lipomas 20 years of experience in the Paediatric Neurosurgery Department La Timone Enfants Hospital, Marseille, France.

INTRODUCTION: We conducted a retrospective study of children with lumbosacral lipomas treated in the Department of Pediatric Neurosurgery hospital Timone Enfants in the last 20 years. We selected patients with lipomas of the conus medullaris who underwent preventive surgery. 86 ,4 % of the patients remained asymptomatic during the follow-up. Worse results were observed in children older than one year old at surgery with transitional lipoma, with the conus medullaris was below L5 and when the resection had been partial. In view of the results, the authors recommend the preventive surgery before the first year of life under neurophysiologic monitoring in order to perform a total near-total resection with a neural plate reconstitution.

Extradural abscess secondary to Salmonella enteritidis in a child following fronto-orbital facial advancement and remodeling surgery.

Intracranial infections caused by Salmonella are rare. We describe the first case of a child undergoing craniofacial surgery for trigonocephaly and subsequently developing an extradural abscess secondary to likely community-acquired Salmonella enteritidis. He underwent surgical washout but returned to theater for a further 2, alongside a prolonged course of intravenous ciprofloxacin. We observed extensive anterior skull bone loss at 78 days postoperatively. At 1 year 11 months, extensive anterior skull bone remodeling had taken place, and the child is currently well.

Endoscopic Third Ventriculostomy Success Score (ETVSS) predicting success in a series of 50 pediatric patients. Are the outcomes of our patients predictable?

PURPOSE: In our series of endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV), we sought to establish the relationship between the preoperative prediction using the Endoscopic Third Ventriculostomy Success Score (ETVSS) and the postsurgical success rate. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This descriptive analytical study comprised 50 pediatric patients who underwent 58 ETV procedures between 2003 and 2011. Data regarding clinical, surgical, and radiological findings were obtained from a continuously updated database. For each patient, we calculated the ETVSS, based on the patient's age, hydrocephalus etiology, and presence of a previous shunt. We considered success to be an established or improved clinical state and at least one of the following radiological criteria: (a) reduction in ventricular size or stable ventricles with disappearance of periventricular edema and increased subarachnoid space over cerebral convexities, (b) flow artifact in sagittal T2FSE MR, or (c) bidirectional flow signal in 2D-CPC MR. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. Six months was the minimum postoperative follow-up required. RESULTS: The ETV was successful in 29 patients (58 %). Patients aged over 1 year achieved the best results (p < 0.019). For those who underwent successful ETV, the mean ETVSS was 71.03 (95 % CI, 66.23-75.84). In those for whom the ETV was not successful, the mean ETVSS was 60 (95 % CI, 53.09-66.90); (p < 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: The success of ETV in our series could have been predicted by ETVSS. Predictability could help establish stricter surgical selection criteria, thereby obtaining higher success rates, as well as preparing the patients and their families for expected outcomes.

Comunicação do diagnóstico de câncer de mama / Breast cancer diagnosis comunication

Talvez mais do que qualquer outro câncer, o câncer de mama expõe a paciente não só a um abalo emocional e psicológico, mas também a uma possível modificação da autoestima. A comunicação do câncer de mama ocorre em um momento importante do diagnóstico da enfermidade. Esta revisão tem o objetivo de verificar se existe um padrão de comunicação do diagnóstico de câncer de mama e avaliar os aspectos envolvidos. Foi realizada uma busca nas bases de dados Medline, Lilacs e Biblioteca Cochrane por meio dos descritores “breast neoplasms”, “disclosure”, “persuasive communication”, “diagnosis” e “physician-patient relations”, através da qual foram selecionados oito estudos. Dentre estes, seis abordaram aspectos da comunicação; dois classificam tipos de comunicação; e um analisa as pacientes após o diagnóstico. A conclusão é que não há um padrão único e fixo para a comunicação do diagnóstico do câncer de mama tendo em vista a imensa complexidade e variabilidade de preferências das pacientes.

Perhaps more than any other cancer, breast cancer not only exposes the patient to a psychological and emotional upheaval, but also a possible modification of self-esteem. The communication of breast cancer occurs at an important time of diagnosis of disease. This review aims to establish whether there is a communications standard for the diagnosis of breast cancer and evaluate the issues involved. Was searched in Medline, Lilacs and Cochrane Library using the keywords "breast neoplasms," "disclosure," "persuasive communication", "diagnosis" and "physician-patient relations, through which eight studies were selected . Six of these dealt with aspects of communication, two classified types of communication, and one examines the patients after diagnosis. The conclusion is that there is a single, fixed standard for the communication of the diagnosis of breast cancer in view of the immense complexity and variability of preferences of patients.