Multivariable Risk Modelling and Survival Analysis with Machine Learning in SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

AIM: To evaluate the performance of a machine learning model based on demographic variables, blood tests, pre-existing comorbidities, and computed tomography(CT)-based radiomic features to predict critical outcome in patients with acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 694 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients. Clinical and demographic data were extracted from clinical records. Radiomic data were extracted from CT. Patients were randomized to the training (80%, n = 556) or test (20%, n = 138) dataset. The training set was used to define the association between severity of disease and comorbidities, laboratory tests, demographic, and CT-based radiomic variables, and to implement a risk-prediction model. The model was evaluated using the C statistic and Brier scores. The test set was used to assess model prediction performance. RESULTS: Patients who died (n = 157) were predominantly male (66%) over the age of 50 with median (range) C-reactive protein (CRP) = 5 [1, 37] mg/dL, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) = 494 [141, 3631] U/I, and D-dimer = 6.006 [168, 152.015] ng/mL. Surviving patients (n = 537) had median (range) CRP = 3 [0, 27] mg/dL, LDH = 484 [78, 3.745] U/I, and D-dimer = 1.133 [96, 55.660] ng/mL. The strongest risk factors were D-dimer, age, and cardiovascular disease. The model implemented using the variables identified using the LASSO Cox regression analysis classified 90% of non-survivors as high-risk individuals in the testing dataset. In this sample, the estimated median survival in the high-risk group was 9 days (95% CI; 9-37), while the low-risk group did not reach the median survival of 50% (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A machine learning model based on combined data available on the first days of hospitalization (demographics, CT-radiomics, comorbidities, and blood biomarkers), can identify SARS-CoV-2 patients at risk of serious illness and death.

Increased incidence of axonal Guillain-Barré syndrome in La Spezia area of Italy: A 13-year follow-up study.

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an acute immune-mediated polyradiculoneuropathy with a worldwide incidence of 0.81-1.89 per 100 000 person-years. In Europe and North America only 5% of patients with GBS have axonal subtypes, which in South America and Asia account for 30%-47% of cases. The aim of our study is to assess the annual incidence and clinical features of GBS in La Spezia area in Italy. A retrospective (from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2011) followed by a prospective (from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2015) analysis was carried out on patients admitted to La Spezia hospital who fulfilled the GBS diagnostic criteria. A total of 86 patients (58 men), mean age of 62.7 years (range 21-90), were included. The mean annual incidence rate was 3/100 000 (range: 0.9/100 000-5.37/100 000) significantly higher than the European incidence (P < 0.001). Forty-seven percent were classified as acute inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (AIDP), 35% as acute motor and motor-sensory axonal neuropathy (AMAN-AMSAN), 13% as variant forms, and 5% were not defined. AIDP was most common in "Golfo dei Poeti" (50%) and "Val di Magra" (63.2%), whereas AMAN/AMSAN prevailed in "Val di Vara" (63.6%) and "Riviera Spezzina" (62.5%) (P = 0.024). In La Spezia area GBS incidence (especially the AMAN subtype) is significantly higher than the incidence reported in Europe. AIDP predominates in the eastern area whereas AMAN/AMSAN in the western, with a significantly different incidence rate (P = 0.003). Prospective studies to assess possible predisposing environmental factors are needed.

Precoagulation-assisted parenchyma-sparing laparoscopic liver surgery: rationale and surgical technique.

BACKGROUND: For the treatment of both primary and metastatic liver tumors, laparoscopic parenchyma-sparing surgery is advocated to reduce postoperative liver failure and facilitate reoperation in the case of recurrence. However, atypical and wedge resections are associated with a higher amount of intraoperative bleeding than are anatomical resections, and such bleeding is known to affect short- and long-term outcomes. Beyond the established role of radiofrequency and microwave ablation in the setting of inoperable liver tumors, the application of thermoablative energy along the plane of the liver surface to be transected results in a zone of coagulative necrosis, possibly minimizing bleeding of the cut liver surface during parenchymal transection. METHODS: From January 2013 to March 2016, a total of 20 selected patients underwent laparoscopic ultrasound-guided liver resection with thermoablative precoagulation of the transection line. RESULTS: During a period of 38 months, 50 laparoscopic thermoablative procedures were performed. Colorectal liver metastases were the most frequent diagnosis. Seventy-two percent of the nodules were removed using parenchymal transection with radiofrequency-precoagulation, while microwave-precoagulation was performed for 20 % of the resected nodules. The remaining 8 % of the nodules were treated by thermoablation alone. The hepatic pedicle was intermittently clamped in six patients. The mean blood loss was 290 mL, and four patients required perioperative transfusions. CONCLUSIONS: Precoagulation-assisted parenchyma-sparing laparoscopic liver surgery can get minimal blood loss during parenchymal transection and lower the need for perioperative transfusions, providing a nonquantifiable margin of oncological safety on the remaining liver. Additional results from larger series are advocated to confirm these preliminary data.

Laparoscopic treatment of traumatic rupture of hydatid hepatic cyst--is it feasible?: A case report.

PURPOSE: Hydatid disease is endemic in several countries. Although the disease can be asymptomatic for long time, it is usually progressive and insidious and can be even challenging in emergency both for its diagnosis and its treatment. METHODS: We report the case of an 8-year-old Albanian boy who was admitted in emergency to our surgical department with the diagnosis of suspected hemoperitoneum caused by a mild liver trauma. The abdominal laparoscopic exploration showed, besides peritoneal free serohematic liquid, a ruptured hepatic cystic lesion involving the left liver, which was completely excised. CONCLUSIONS: Even if there are not yet any reports about the usefulness of laparoscopic treatment of ruptured liver hydatid cysts, we believe that laparoscopic approach can help the diagnosis and in selected cases, the management of this condition. However more studies need to be carried out to evaluate it's long-term safeness about the recurrence of hydatid disease.