Likelihood analysis of the minimal AMSB model.

We perform a likelihood analysis of the minimal anomaly-mediated supersymmetry-breaking (mAMSB) model using constraints from cosmology and accelerator experiments. We find that either a wino-like or a Higgsino-like neutralino LSP, [Formula: see text], may provide the cold dark matter (DM), both with similar likelihoods. The upper limit on the DM density from Planck and other experiments enforces [Formula: see text] after the inclusion of Sommerfeld enhancement in its annihilations. If most of the cold DM density is provided by the [Formula: see text], the measured value of the Higgs mass favours a limited range of [Formula: see text] (and also for [Formula: see text] if [Formula: see text]) but the scalar mass [Formula: see text] is poorly constrained. In the wino-LSP case, [Formula: see text] is constrained to about [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text], whereas in the Higgsino-LSP case [Formula: see text] has just a lower limit [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) and [Formula: see text] is constrained to [Formula: see text] in the [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) scenario. In neither case can the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, [Formula: see text], be improved significantly relative to its Standard Model (SM) value, nor do flavour measurements constrain the model significantly, and there are poor prospects for discovering supersymmetric particles at the LHC, though there are some prospects for direct DM detection. On the other hand, if the [Formula: see text] contributes only a fraction of the cold DM density, future LHC [Formula: see text]-based searches for gluinos, squarks and heavier chargino and neutralino states as well as disappearing track searches in the wino-like LSP region will be relevant, and interference effects enable [Formula: see text] to agree with the data better than in the SM in the case of wino-like DM with [Formula: see text].

The pMSSM10 after LHC run 1.

We present a frequentist analysis of the parameter space of the pMSSM10, in which the following ten soft SUSY-breaking parameters are specified independently at the mean scalar top mass scale [Formula: see text]: the gaugino masses [Formula: see text], the first-and second-generation squark masses [Formula: see text], the third-generation squark mass [Formula: see text], a common slepton mass [Formula: see text] and a common trilinear mixing parameter A, as well as the Higgs mixing parameter [Formula: see text], the pseudoscalar Higgs mass [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], the ratio of the two Higgs vacuum expectation values. We use the MultiNest sampling algorithm with [Formula: see text]1.2 [Formula: see text] points to sample the pMSSM10 parameter space. A dedicated study shows that the sensitivities to strongly interacting sparticle masses of ATLAS and CMS searches for jets, leptons [Formula: see text][Formula: see text] signals depend only weakly on many of the other pMSSM10 parameters. With the aid of the Atom and Scorpion codes, we also implement the LHC searches for electroweakly interacting sparticles and light stops, so as to confront the pMSSM10 parameter space with all relevant SUSY searches. In addition, our analysis includes Higgs mass and rate measurements using the HiggsSignals code, SUSY Higgs exclusion bounds, the measurements of [Formula: see text] by LHCb and CMS, other B-physics observables, electroweak precision observables, the cold dark matter density and the XENON100 and LUX searches for spin-independent dark matter scattering, assuming that the cold dark matter is mainly provided by the lightest neutralino [Formula: see text]. We show that the pMSSM10 is able to provide a supersymmetric interpretation of [Formula: see text], unlike the CMSSM, NUHM1 and NUHM2. As a result, we find (omitting Higgs rates) that the minimum [Formula: see text] with 18 degrees of freedom (d.o.f.) in the pMSSM10, corresponding to a [Formula: see text] probability of 30.8 %, to be compared with [Formula: see text] in the CMSSM (NUHM1) (NUHM2). We display the one-dimensional likelihood functions for sparticle masses, and we show that they may be significantly lighter in the pMSSM10 than in the other models, e.g., the gluino may be as light as [Formula: see text]1250 [Formula: see text] at the 68 % CL, and squarks, stops, electroweak gauginos and sleptons may be much lighter than in the CMSSM, NUHM1 and NUHM2. We discuss the discovery potential of future LHC runs, [Formula: see text] colliders and direct detection experiments.

The CMSSM and NUHM1 after LHC Run 1.

We analyze the impact of data from the full Run 1 of the LHC at 7 and 8 TeV on the CMSSM with [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] and the NUHM1 with [Formula: see text], incorporating the constraints imposed by other experiments such as precision electroweak measurements, flavour measurements, the cosmological density of cold dark matter and the direct search for the scattering of dark matter particles in the LUX experiment. We use the following results from the LHC experiments: ATLAS searches for events with [Formula: see text] accompanied by jets with the full 7 and 8 TeV data, the ATLAS and CMS measurements of the mass of the Higgs boson, the CMS searches for heavy neutral Higgs bosons and a combination of the LHCb and CMS measurements of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. Our results are based on samplings of the parameter spaces of the CMSSM for both [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] and of the NUHM1 for [Formula: see text] with 6.8[Formula: see text], 6.2[Formula: see text] and 1.6[Formula: see text] points, respectively, obtained using the MultiNest tool. The impact of the Higgs-mass constraint is assessed using FeynHiggs 2.10.0, which provides an improved prediction for the masses of the MSSM Higgs bosons in the region of heavy squark masses. It yields in general larger values of [Formula: see text] than previous versions of FeynHiggs, reducing the pressure on the CMSSM and NUHM1. We find that the global [Formula: see text] functions for the supersymmetric models vary slowly over most of the parameter spaces allowed by the Higgs-mass and the [Formula: see text] searches, with best-fit values that are comparable to the [Formula: see text] for the best Standard Model fit. We provide 95 % CL lower limits on the masses of various sparticles and assess the prospects for observing them during Run 2 of the LHC.