ABSTRACT
Climate change represents one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. We investigate how climate change will affect the future potential distribution of tree species in subtropical high montane habitats in the Atlantic Forest and identify potential climate refuges for these species. The most frequent and exclusive species in this ecosystem were selected and geographic coordinates were compiled. The maximum entropy algorithm was used for climatic niche modeling. Two scenarios for 2061-2080 were considered for future predictions, one low impact (RCP 4.5) and one high impact (RCP 8.5). Isothermality, mean temperature in the driest quarter, mean temperature in the hottest quarter, rainfall in the driest month, and rainfall in the hottest quarter were the variables that best explained the climatic niche of the majority of species. The areas of potential species occurrence were reduced by 48.37 % (± 13.63 %) (RCP 4.5) and 62.49 % (± 21.87 %) (RCP 8.5) on average. The potential area of Crinodendron brasilense Reitz & L.B.Sm. decreased the most, by 82.11 % (RCP 4.5) and 90.06 % (RCP 8.5), respectively. High elevation areas in the south of Brazil were identified as priorities for conservation to ensure that climate refuges for high montane forest species are maintained in the future. Climate change events may significantly affect the species evaluated in this study.(AU)
Subject(s)
Climate Change , Forests , Refugium , Brazil , BiodiversityABSTRACT
The natural regeneration process is essential for forest maintenance since it is critical for establishing new tree individuals. This study aimed to improve the understanding of the regenerative component dynamics of Araucaria Forests in Southern Brazil. We investigated the effects of climate, light, tree component structure and anthropogenic disturbance on tree species regeneration. Regenerating communities from six different fragments in forest remnants of the Planalto Sul Catarinense region was evaluated in permanent plots two years after the first inventory. The following demographic rates were determined: recruitment, mortality, net change in the number of individuals and the changes to both upper and lower height classes. The following variables were measured in each fragment: altitude, climatic variables, light environment, tree component density and cattle presence. Association between dynamics rates, regenerating species abundance and explanatory variables was verified by the fourth-corner and RLQ methods. A total of 4,379 and 5,268 individuals were sampled for the first and second inventories, respectively, with recruitment rate (21 % yr−1) higher than mortality rate (13 % yr−1). The dynamics pattern of the fragment with greater presence of cattle stood out for the intense height increase of regenerating species caused by the presence of fast growth and light-demanding species. Natural regeneration of forest remnants under study is facing a structuring process. The main conclusions of this study were: i) climate and altitude play a relevant role in defining floristic identity and ii) chronic disturbances may influence the definition of ecological strategies.(AU)
Subject(s)
Forests , Trees/growth & development , Cattle , Animal HusbandryABSTRACT
The natural regeneration process is essential for forest maintenance since it is critical for establishing new tree individuals. This study aimed to improve the understanding of the regenerative component dynamics of Araucaria Forests in Southern Brazil. We investigated the effects of climate, light, tree component structure and anthropogenic disturbance on tree species regeneration. Regenerating communities from six different fragments in forest remnants of the Planalto Sul Catarinense region was evaluated in permanent plots two years after the first inventory. The following demographic rates were determined: recruitment, mortality, net change in the number of individuals and the changes to both upper and lower height classes. The following variables were measured in each fragment: altitude, climatic variables, light environment, tree component density and cattle presence. Association between dynamics rates, regenerating species abundance and explanatory variables was verified by the fourth-corner and RLQ methods. A total of 4,379 and 5,268 individuals were sampled for the first and second inventories, respectively, with recruitment rate (21 % yr−1) higher than mortality rate (13 % yr−1). The dynamics pattern of the fragment with greater presence of cattle stood out for the intense height increase of regenerating species caused by the presence of fast growth and light-demanding species. Natural regeneration of forest remnants under study is facing a structuring process. The main conclusions of this study were: i) climate and altitude play a relevant role in defining floristic identity and ii) chronic disturbances may influence the definition of ecological strategies.