Validez en la predicción de riesgo de la escala SCORE en una población mediterránea con hipertensión arterial / Predictive validity of the risk SCORE model in a Mediterranean population with arterial hypertension

Introducción y objetivos: La hipertensión arterial es el factor de riesgo más prevalente a nivel global. Se recomienda el cálculo del riesgo cardiovascular en pacientes hipertensos antes del inicio del tratamiento. Este estudio tuvo como objetivo evaluar el valor predictivo y la utilidad clínica de la escala SCORE para prevenir eventos cardiovasculares y mortalidad por todas las causas en los pacientes con hipertensión arterial. Métodos: Se incluyeron los pacientes con hipertensión arterial de la cohorte ESCARVAL-RISK. El riesgo cardiovascular se calculó mediante la escala SCORE. Todas las muertes y eventos cardiovasculares se registraron durante un periodo de 5 años de seguimiento. Se calculó la sensibilidad, la especificidad y los valores predictivos para diferentes puntos de corte, y se evaluó el efecto de diferentes factores de riesgo sobre la exactitud diagnóstica de las gráficas SCORE. Resultados: En una cohorte final de 9.834 pacientes, hubo 555 eventos cardiovasculares y 69 muertes. El valor de riesgo recomendado para iniciar tratamiento farmacológico (5%) presentó una especificidad del 92% para la muerte y del 91% para los eventos cardiovasculares, y una sensibilidad del 20% para la muerte y del 22% para los eventos cardiovasculares. Además, la escala clasificó al 80,4% de los pacientes que sufrieron un evento cardiovascular, y al 78,3% de los que murieron, como de bajo riesgo. La edad, el índice de masa corporal, la retinopatía y el tratamiento anticoagulante se asociaron con una reducción en la capacidad predictiva de la escala SCORE, mientras que ser mujer se asoció con mejor predicción de riesgo. Conclusiones: La capacidad predictiva de la escala SCORE para la enfermedad cardiovascular y la mortalidad total en los pacientes con hipertensión arterial es limitada.(AU)

Introduction and objectives: Hypertension is the most prevalent risk factor globally. Calculation of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients before initiation of treatment is recommended. This study aimed to assess the predictive value and clinical utility of the SCORE scale in preventing cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with hypertension. Methods: Patients with hypertension from the ESCARVAL-RISK cohort were included. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the SCORE scale. All deaths and cardiovascular events were recorded during a 5-year follow-up period. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were calculated for different cut-off points and the effect of different risk factors on the diagnostic accuracy of SCORE charts were assessed. Results: In a final cohort of 9834 patients, there were 555 cardiovascular events and 69 deaths. The recommended risk value for initiating drug treatment (5%) had a specificity of 92% for death and 91% for cardiovascular events, and a sensitivity of 20% for death and 22% for cardiovascular events. In addition, the scale classified 80.4% of patients who experienced a cardiovascular event and 78.3% of those who died as low risk. Age, body mass index, retinopathy and anticoagulant therapy were associated with reduced predictive ability of the SCORE scale, while being female was associated with better risk prediction. Conclusions: The predictive ability of the SCORE scale for cardiovascular disease and total mortality in patients with hypertension is limited.(AU)

[Predictive validity of the risk SCORE model in a Mediterranean population with arterial hypertension]. / Validez en la predicción de riesgo de la escala SCORE en una población mediterránea con hipertensión arterial.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Hypertension is the most prevalent risk factor globally. Calculation of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients before initiation of treatment is recommended. This study aimed to assess the predictive value and clinical utility of the SCORE scale in preventing cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with hypertension. METHODS: Patients with hypertension from the ESCARVAL-RISK cohort were included. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the SCORE scale. All deaths and cardiovascular events were recorded during a 5-year follow-up period. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were calculated for different cut-off points and the effect of different risk factors on the diagnostic accuracy of SCORE charts were assessed. RESULTS: In a final cohort of 9834 patients, there were 555 cardiovascular events and 69 deaths. The recommended risk value for initiating drug treatment (5%) had a specificity of 92% for death and 91% for cardiovascular events, and a sensitivity of 20% for death and 22% for cardiovascular events. In addition, the scale classified 80.4% of patients who experienced a cardiovascular event and 78.3% of those who died as low risk. Age, body mass index, retinopathy and anticoagulant therapy were associated with reduced predictive ability of the SCORE scale, while being female was associated with better risk prediction. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive ability of the SCORE scale for cardiovascular disease and total mortality in patients with hypertension is limited.