Uncertainty quantification for nuclear density functional theory and information content of new measurements.

Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models, to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability, to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment, and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, we apply the Bayesian framework to propagate theoretical statistical uncertainties in predictions of nuclear masses, two-neutron dripline, and fission barriers. Overall, we find that the new mass measurements do not impose a constraint that is strong enough to lead to significant changes in the model parameters. The example discussed in this study sets the stage for quantifying and maximizing the impact of new measurements with respect to current modeling and guiding future experimental efforts, thus enhancing the experiment-theory cycle in the scientific method.

Optimized chiral nucleon-nucleon interaction at next-to-next-to-leading order.

We optimize the nucleon-nucleon interaction from chiral effective field theory at next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO). The resulting new chiral force NNLO(opt) yields χ(2)≈1 per degree of freedom for laboratory energies below approximately 125 MeV. In the A=3, 4 nucleon systems, the contributions of three-nucleon forces are smaller than for previous parametrizations of chiral interactions. We use NNLO(opt) to study properties of key nuclei and neutron matter, and we demonstrate that many aspects of nuclear structure can be understood in terms of this nucleon-nucleon interaction, without explicitly invoking three-nucleon forces.