Coronavirus seasonality, respiratory infections and weather.

BACKGROUND: The survival of coronaviruses are influenced by weather conditions and seasonal coronaviruses are more common in winter months. We examine the seasonality of respiratory infections in England and Wales and the associations between weather parameters and seasonal coronavirus cases. METHODS: Respiratory virus disease data for England and Wales between 1989 and 2019 was extracted from the Second-Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) database used for routine surveillance. Seasonal coronaviruses from 2012 to 2019 were compared to daily average weather parameters for the period before the patient's specimen date with a range of lag periods. RESULTS: The seasonal distribution of 985,524 viral infections in England and Wales (1989-2019) showed coronavirus infections had a similar seasonal distribution to influenza A and bocavirus, with a winter peak between weeks 2 to 8. Ninety percent of infections occurred where the daily mean ambient temperatures were below 10 °C; where daily average global radiation exceeded 500 kJ/m2/h; where sunshine was less than 5 h per day; or where relative humidity was above 80%. Coronavirus infections were significantly more common where daily average global radiation was under 300 kJ/m2/h (OR 4.3; CI 3.9-4.6; p < 0.001); where average relative humidity was over 84% (OR 1.9; CI 3.9-4.6; p < 0.001); where average air temperature was below 10 °C (OR 6.7; CI 6.1-7.3; p < 0.001) or where sunshine was below 4 h (OR 2.4; CI 2.2-2.6; p < 0.001) when compared to the distribution of weather values for the same time period. Seasonal coronavirus infections in children under 3 years old were more frequent at the start of an annual epidemic than at the end, suggesting that the size of the susceptible child population may be important in the annual cycle. CONCLUSIONS: The dynamics of seasonal coronaviruses reflect immunological, weather, social and travel drivers of infection. Evidence from studies on different coronaviruses suggest that low temperature and low radiation/sunlight favour survival. This implies a seasonal increase in SARS-CoV-2 may occur in the UK and countries with a similar climate as a result of an increase in the R0 associated with reduced temperatures and solar radiation. Increased measures to reduce transmission will need to be introduced in winter months for COVID-19.

The effect of ambient temperature on type-2-diabetes: case-crossover analysis of 4+ million GP consultations across England.

BACKGROUND: Given the double jeopardy of global increases in rates of obesity and climate change, it is increasingly important to recognise the dangers posed to diabetic patients during periods of extreme weather. We aimed to characterise the associations between ambient temperature and general medical practitioner consultations made by a cohort of type-2 diabetic patients. Evidence on the effects of temperature variation in the primary care setting is currently limited. METHODS: Case-crossover analysis of 4,474,943 consultations in England during 2012-2014, linked to localised temperature at place of residence for each patient. Conditional logistic regression was used to assess associations between each temperature-related consultation and control days matched on day-of-week. RESULTS: There was an increased odds of seeking medical consultation associated with high temperatures: Odds ratio (OR) = 1.097 (95% confidence interval = 1.041, 1.156) per 1 °C increase above 22 °C. Odds during low temperatures below 0 °C were also significantly raised: OR = 1.024 (1.019, 1.030). Heat-related consultations were particularly high among diabetics with cardiovascular comorbidities: OR = 1.171 (1.031, 1.331), but there was no heightened risk with renal failure or neuropathy comorbidities. Surprisingly, lower odds of heat-related consultation were associated with the use of diuretics, anticholinergics, antipsychotics or antidepressants compared to non-use, especially among those with cardiovascular comorbidities, although differences were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Type-2 diabetic patients are at increased odds of medical consultation during days of temperature extremes, especially during hot weather. The common assumption that certain medication use heightens the risk of heat illness was not borne-out by our study on diabetics in a primary care setting and such advice may need to be reconsidered in heat protection plans.

Coastal climate is associated with elevated solar irradiance and higher 25(OH)D level.

INTRODUCTION: There is evidence that populations living close to the coast have improved health and wellbeing. Coastal environments are linked to promotion of physical activity through provision of safe, opportune, aesthetic and accessible spaces for recreation. Exposure to coastal environments may also reduce stress and induce positive mood. We hypothesised that coastal climate may influence the vitamin D status of residents and thus partly explain benefits to health. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ecological and cross-sectional analyses were designed to elucidate the connection between coastal residence and vitamin D status. We divided residential data, from developed land use areas and the Lower Super Output Areas or Data Zones (Scotland) of the 1958 Birth Cohort participants, into the following coastal bands: <1 km, 1-5 km, 5-20 km, 20-50 km and over 50 km. In the ecological analysis we used a multiple regression model to describe the relationship between UV vitd and coastal proximity adjusted for latitude. Subsequently, using the residential information of the participants of the 1958 Birth Cohort we developed a multiple regression model to understand the relationship between serum 25(OH)D (a marker of vitamin D status) and coastal proximity adjusted for several factors related to vitamin D status (e.g. diet, outdoor activity). RESULTS: We found that coastal proximity was associated with solar irradiance; on average a 99.6 (96.1-103.3)J/m(2)/day regression coefficient was recorded for settlements <1 km from the coast compared with those at >50 km. This relationship was modified by latitude with settlements at a lower latitude exhibiting a greater effect. Individuals living closer to the coast in England had higher vitamin D levels than those inland, particularly in autumn. CONCLUSION: Geographic location may influence biochemistry and health outcomes due to environmental factors. This can provide benefits in terms of vitamin D status but may also pose a risk due to higher skin cancer risk. We provide further evidence in support of the claim that coastal environments can provide opportunities for health and wellbeing.

The effect of the weather on pulmonary exacerbations and viral infections among adults with cystic fibrosis.

The effect of changes in the weather on the respiratory health of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) is unclear. We conducted a prospective study to determine the impact of climate and season on the incidence of viral respiratory infections (VRI) and pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) among adults with CF. Between December 2010 and April 2012, 98 adults with CF were followed for 12 months. Polymerase chain reaction assays for nine viruses were performed on sputum, nose and throat swabs every 2 months and additionally at onset of PEx. Hourly temperature and relative humidity measurements were recorded throughout the study. Statistical analysis utilized generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. Pre-specified criteria for VRI and PEx were met at 29% and 37% of visits, respectively. Rhinovirus accounted for 72% of identified viruses. Incidence of rhinovirus peaked in autumn while non-rhinovirus VRI peaked in winter. Rhinovirus was associated with increased mean temperatures (OR 1.07; p = 0.001), while non-rhinovirus VRI was associated with lower mean temperatures (OR 0.87; p < 0.001). PEx occurred frequently throughout the study with no clear seasonal pattern observed. There was no significant association between climate variables and the incidence of either PEx or antibiotic prescription. There is a seasonal pattern to VRI in adults with CF. The incidence of VRI but not PEx is associated with changes in ambient temperature.

Are we seeing the effects of public awareness campaigns? A 10-year analysis of Breslow thickness at presentation of malignant melanoma in the South West of England.

INTRODUCTION: The last 20 years has seen a marked improvement in skin cancer awareness campaigns. We sought to establish whether this has affected the presenting Breslow thickness of malignant melanoma in the South West. METHOD: This is a retrospective study looking at the first presentation of melanomas from 2003 to 2011. Data was accessed using the local online melanoma database. RESULTS: A total of 2001 new melanomas presented from 2003 to 2012 (Male:Female = 1:1.062). The average yearly number of melanomas was 200.1 (range = 138-312). The mean age was 62.5 years (range 12-99). Data was analysed using a Chi² test. For 0-1 mm melanomas, there is a significant difference in the observed versus expected values over the 10 years (p = 0.0018). There is an increasing proportion of 0-1 mm (thin) melanomas presenting year on year, with a positive linear trend. This is very statistically significant (p < 0.0001). The 1-2 mm melanomas are decreasing in proportion with a negative linear trend (p = 0.0013). The 2-4 mm are also decreasing in proportion (p = 0.0253). There is no significant change in the thick >4 mm melanomas (p = 0.1456). CONCLUSION: The proportion of thin 0-1 mm melanomas presenting in South West England has significantly increased from 2003 to 2012. There is no significant change in the thick >4 mm melanomas. This may be a result of increased public awareness due to effective public health campaigns which has significant prognostic and financial implications.

The impact of thunderstorm asthma on emergency department attendances across London during July 2013.

BACKGROUND: This study illustrates the potential of using emergency department attendance data, routinely accessed as part of a national syndromic surveillance system, to monitor the impact of thunderstorm asthma. METHODS: The Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance System (EDSSS) routinely monitors anonymised attendance data on a daily basis across a sentinel network of 35 emergency departments. Attendance data for asthma, wheeze and difficulty breathing are analysed on a daily basis. RESULTS: A statistically significant spike in asthma attendances in two EDSSS emergency departments in London was detected on 23 July 2013, coinciding with a series of large violent thunderstorms across southern England. There was also an increase in the reported severity of these attendances. CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary report illustrates the potential of the EDSSS to monitor the impact of thunderstorms on emergency department asthma attendances. Further work will focus on how this system can be used to quantify the impact on emergency departments, thus potentially improving resource planning and also adding to the thunderstorm asthma evidence-base.