An integrated assessment model for food security under climate change for South Asia.

The present study develops an integrated assessment model (IAM) for food security under climate change for South Asia. For IAM, initially, an econometric model is estimated that identifies the impact of climate change on crop yields, using the historical relationships between temperature, precipitation, and the production of cereals. Subsequently, future projections have been collected for temperature and precipitation from climate models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the previous econometric model is applied to obtain the implied future cereal yields changes. Then, the yield variations are fed into a multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, calibrated to the GTAP 9 database, taking the form of decreases in factor-augmenting productivity of the grains sector. Further, the present study evaluates the effects of climate change on an individual South Asian country. The results indicate that change in climate decreases food production, increases food prices, decreases food consumption, and thus affects the welfare. Trade and fiscal policy responses are investigated to combat the problem of food security. It is revealed that these two policies fail to compensate climate change damage in all the selected South Asian countries.

Waste not, want not: A bio-economic impact assessment of household food waste reductions in the EU.

Halving per capita food waste and reducing food losses along production and supply chains is one of the objectives fixed by the United Nations among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study employs a system-wide modelling approach, to simulate economic impacts of households' food waste reduction in 2030, focusing on the European Union. The paper provides market, food security, biophysical and environmental indicators resulting from food commodity specific waste reductions by EU households. The scenarios explicitly account for associated costs paid by food manufacturers derived from adjustments in the packaging, labelling and logistics. The model shows, under a series of market assumptions, a possible increase in household savings, a fall in agri-food production and a minor negative macroeconomic impact due to household food waste reductions. On the other hand, the effects on environmental indicators such as land usage, GHG emissions and water abstraction are positive. Future research on several aspects of the food waste topic is needed to better integrate all economic aspects.

Determinants of virtual water flows in the Mediterranean.

The aim of the paper is to investigate the main determinants of the bilateral virtual water (water used in the production of a commodity or service) flows associated with international trade in agricultural goods across the Mediterranean basin. We consider the bilateral gross flows of virtual water in the area and study what export-specific and import-specific factors are significantly associated with virtual water flows. We follow a sequential approach. Through a gravity model of trade, we obtain a "refined" version of the variable we aim to explain, one that is free of the amount of flows due to pair-specific factors affecting bilateral trade flows and that fully reflects the impact of country-specific determinants of virtual water trade. A number of country-specific potential explanatory variables, ranging from water endowments to trade barriers, from per capita GDP to irrigation prices, is presented and tested. To identify the variables that help to explain the bilateral flows of virtual water, we adopt a model selection procedure based on model averaging. Our findings confirm one of the main controversial results in the literature: larger water endowments do not necessarily lead to a larger 'export' of virtual water, as one could expect. We also find some evidence that higher water irrigation prices reduce (increase) virtual water 'exports' ('imports').