ABSTRACT
The region-to-region spread of human infectious diseases is considered to be dependent on the human mobility flow (HMF). However, it has been hard to obtain the evidence for this. Since the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Japan 2020, the government has enforced countermeasures against COVID-19 nationwide, namely the restriction of personal travelling, universal masking, and hand hygiene. As a result, the spread of acute respiratory infections had been effectively controlled. However, COVID-19 as well as pediatric respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections were not well-controlled. The region-to-region spread of pediatric RSV infections in 2020-2021 was recognizable unlike those in 2018 and 2019. In this study, we investigated the correlation between the trend of regional reports of the pediatric RSV infections and the HMF based on cellular phone signal data. Upon closer examination of both epidemiological trend and HMF data, the spread of pediatric RSV infection from one region to another was logically explained by HMF, which would serve as the evidence of the dependence of regional transmission on HMF. This is the first solid evidence where this correlation has been clearly observed for the common respiratory infections. While social implementation of infection control measures has successfully suppressed the droplet-mediated respiratory infections, such as influenza, but not the airborne infections, it was suggested that the aerosol transmission and adult asymptomatic carrier were involved in the transmission of RSV akin to COVID-19.
