ABSTRACT
We have investigated the impact of reduced emissions due to COVID-19 lockdown measures in spring 2020 on air quality in Canada's four largest cities: Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary. Observed daily concentrations of NO2, PM2.5, and O3 during a "pre-lockdown" period (15 February-14 March 2020) and a "lockdown" period (22 March-2 May 2020), when lockdown measures were in full force everywhere in Canada, were compared to the same periods in the previous decade (2010-2019). Higher-than-usual seasonal declines in mean daily NO2 were observed for the pre-lockdown to lockdown periods in 2020. For PM2.5, Montreal was the only city with a higher-than-usual seasonal decline, whereas for O3 all four cities remained within the previous decadal range. In order to isolate the impact of lockdown-related emission changes from other factors such as seasonal changes in meteorology and emissions and meteorological variability, two emission scenarios were performed with the GEM-MACH air quality model. The first was a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario with baseline emissions and the second was a more realistic simulation with estimated COVID-19 lockdown emissions. NO2 surface concentrations for the COVID-19 emission scenario decreased by 31 to 34% on average relative to the BAU scenario in the four metropolitan areas. Lower decreases ranging from 6 to 17% were predicted for PM2.5. O3 surface concentrations, on the other hand, showed increases up to a maximum of 21% close to city centers versus slight decreases over the suburbs, but Ox (odd oxygen), like NO2 and PM2.5, decreased as expected over these cities. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11869-021-01039-1.
ABSTRACT
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are toxic compounds that are ubiquitous in the atmospheric environment. The input for an emissions processing system that was originally configured forthe study of criteria air pollutants was updated to calculate emissions of six semivolatile PAHs. The goal of the work was to produce emissions estimates with the spatial and temporal resolution needed to serve as input to a regional air quality model for southern Canada and the U.S. Such modeling is helpful in determining reductions in PAH emissions that may be necessary to protect human and ecosystem health. The total annual emission of the six PAHs (sigma6PAH) for both countries was estimated at 18 273 Mg/year. A total of 90% of these emissions arise from U.S. sources. The top six source types account for 73% of emissions and are related to metal production, open burning, incineration, and forest fires. The emission factors used in this study were derived from published compilations. Although this approach has the advantage of quality control during the compilation process, some compilations include factors from older studies that may overestimate emissions since they do not account for recent improvements in emission control technology. When compared to estimates published in the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) for 2002, the U.S. emissions in this study are higher by a factor of 4 (16 424 vs 4102 Mg/year). The cause of this difference has been investigated, and much of it is likely due to our use of data unavailable in the 2002 NEI but inferred here on the basis of the PAH emissions literature. Augmenting the 2002 NEI with this additional information would bring its reported annual emissions to 8213 Mg/year, which is within a factor of 2 of the estimates herein. The results presented for southern Canada are the first published values for all known PAH sources in that country.
