Wild boar deathbed choice in relation to ASF: Are there any differences between positive and negative carcasses?

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal, infectious disease affecting wild boars and domestic pigs, mostly resulting in their deaths. Previous studies showed that carcasses of infected wild boars pose a serious threat for ASF virus transmission and leaving of dead bodies in the environment enables persistence of the disease in the given affected area. Therefore, the prompt finding and removal of the carcasses is crucial for effective ASF control. This study reveals habitat preferences of ASF-positive wild boars for their deathbeds, which could greatly improve the effectivity in the search for infected carcasses. The vast majority (71%) of carcasses were found in forests (although forests occupy only 26.6% of the high-risk area - Zlin region, Czech Republic), especially in young forest stands; 91.3% of infected wild boar carcasses, which were found in forests, were in stands of up to 40 years of age, where infected individuals search for calm and quiet places. The preference of younger forest stands is significantly higher for infected individuals (p < 0.001). On meadows, infected individuals preferred a higher herb layer (p = 0.002) compared to non-infected individuals. A higher preference of places more distant from roads and forest edges was observed for the infected individuals as well (p < 0.001 in both cases). No differences in deathbed habitat preference were observed between selected sex-age categories. The distance between carcasses and water source was observed to be dependent on current mean temperature. Carcasses were found closer to the water sources at higher mean temperature. Because of the comparable character of the landscape, presented models are applicable across Central Europe and have the potential to greatly facilitate the search for infected carcasses.

Confirmed cannibalism in wild boar and its possible role in African swine fever transmission.

For the monitoring of wild boar interactions with conspecific carcasses, seven wild boar carcasses were placed in different sites in the Czech Republic during winter season. Data were collected by camera traps. In total, 732 visits were recorded of wild boars at the carcass sites. Direct contact with the carcass was detected in 81% of the records. Cannibalism was observed in 9.8% of all recorded visits. The first direct contact was observed on average 30 days after the carcass had been placed in its respective site. Cannibalism was observed on average after 70 days. The effect of sex-age class on direct contact was not proven in our study. The presented findings show that cannibalism in wild boar can play a substantial role in the ASF epidemic. These results highlighted the importance of the removal of infected carcasses from the habitat, which is crucial for African swine fever eradication.

R0 Estimation for the African Swine Fever Epidemics in Wild Boar of Czech Republic and Belgium.

African swine fever (ASF) is a contagious haemorrhagic fever that affects both domesticated and wild pigs. Since ASF reached Europe wild boar populations have been a reservoir for the virus. Collecting reliable data on infected individuals in wild populations is challenging, and this makes it difficult to deploy an effective eradication strategy. However, for diseases with high lethality rate, infected carcasses can be used as a proxy for the number of infected individuals at a certain time. Then R0 parameter can be used to estimate the time distribution of the number of newly infected individuals for the outbreak. We estimated R0 for two ASF outbreaks in wild boar, in Czech Republic and Belgium, using the exponential growth method. This allowed us to estimate both R0 and the doubling time (Td) for those infections. The results are R0 = 1.95, Td = 4.39 for Czech Republic and R0 = 1.65, Td = 6.43 for Belgium. We suggest that, if estimated as early as possible, R0 and Td can provide an expected course for the infection against which to compare the actual data collected in the field. This would help to assess if passive surveillance is properly implemented and hence to verify the efficacy of the applied control measures.

Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the European Union (November 2017 until November 2018).

This update on the African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in the EU demonstrated that out of all tested wild boar found dead, the proportion of positive samples peaked in winter and summer. For domestic pigs only, a summer peak was evident. Despite the existence of several plausible factors that could result in the observed seasonality, there is no evidence to prove causality. Wild boar density was the most influential risk factor for the occurrence of ASF in wild boar. In the vast majority of introductions in domestic pig holdings, direct contact with infected domestic pigs or wild boar was excluded as the route of introduction. The implementation of emergency measures in the wild boar management zones following a focal ASF introduction was evaluated. As a sole control strategy, intensive hunting around the buffer area might not always be sufficient to eradicate ASF. However, the probability of eradication success is increased after adding quick and safe carcass removal. A wider buffer area leads to a higher success probability; however it implies a larger intensive hunting area and the need for more animals to be hunted. If carcass removal and intensive hunting are effectively implemented, fencing is more useful for delineating zones, rather than adding substantially to control efficacy. However, segments of fencing will be particularly useful in those areas where carcass removal or intensive hunting is difficult to implement. It was not possible to demonstrate an effect of natural barriers on ASF spread. Human-mediated translocation may override any effect of natural barriers. Recommendations for ASF control in four different epidemiological scenarios are presented.

African swine fever in wild boar.

The European Commission requested EFSA to compare the reliability of wild boar density estimates across the EU and to provide guidance to improve data collection methods. Currently, the only EU-wide available data are hunting data. Their collection methods should be harmonised to be comparable and to improve predictive models for wild boar density. These models could be validated by more precise density data, collected at local level e.g. by camera trapping. Based on practical and theoretical considerations, it is currently not possible to establish wild boar density thresholds that do not allow sustaining African swine fever (ASF). There are many drivers determining if ASF can be sustained or not, including heterogeneous population structures and human-mediated spread and there are still unknowns on the importance of different transmission modes in the epidemiology. Based on extensive literature reviews and observations from affected Member States, the efficacy of different wild boar population reduction and separation methods is evaluated. Different wild boar management strategies at different stages of the epidemic are suggested. Preventive measures to reduce and stabilise wild boar density, before ASF introduction, will be beneficial both in reducing the probability of exposure of the population to ASF and the efforts needed for potential emergency actions (i.e. less carcass removal) if an ASF incursion were to occur. Passive surveillance is the most effective and efficient method of surveillance for early detection of ASF in free areas. Following focal ASF introduction, the wild boar populations should be kept undisturbed for a short period (e.g. hunting ban on all species, leave crops unharvested to provide food and shelter within the affected area) and drastic reduction of the wild boar population may be performed only ahead of the ASF advance front, in the free populations. Following the decline in the epidemic, as demonstrated through passive surveillance, active population management should be reconsidered.