Rubber yield prediction by meteorological conditions using mixed models and multi-model inference techniques.

Linear mixed models were developed and used to predict rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) yield based on meteorological conditions to which rubber trees had been exposed for periods ranging from 1 day to 2 months prior to tapping events. Predictors included a range of moving averages of meteorological covariates spanning different windows of time before the date of the tapping events. Serial autocorrelation in the latex yield measurements was accounted for using random effects and a spatial generalization of the autoregressive error covariance structure suited to data sampled at irregular time intervals. Information theoretics, specifically the Akaike information criterion (AIC), AIC corrected for small sample size (AICc), and Akaike weights, was used to select models with the greatest strength of support in the data from a set of competing candidate models. The predictive performance of the selected best model was evaluated using both leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) and an independent test set. Moving averages of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, and maximum relative humidity with a 30-day lead period were identified as the best yield predictors. Prediction accuracy expressed in terms of the percentage of predictions within a measurement error of 5 g for cross-validation and also for the test dataset was above 99 %.

A comparison of the wild food plant use knowledge of ethnic minorities in Naban River Watershed National Nature Reserve, Yunnan, SW China.

BACKGROUND: Wild food plants (WFPs) contribute to the nutrition, economy and even cultural identity of people in many parts of the world. Different factors determine the preference and use of WFPs such as abundance, availability, cultural preference, economic conditions, shortage periods or unsecure food production systems. Understanding these factors and knowing the patterns of selection, use and cultural significance and value of wild food plants for local communities is helpful in setting priorities for conservation and/or domestication of these plants. Thus in this study knowledge of wild food plant use among four groups namely Dai, Lahu, Hani and Mountain Han in Naban River Watershed National Nature Reserve ((NRWNNR), Xishuangbanna were documented and analyzed to find the similarity and difference among their plant use. METHODS: Data on wild food plant use was collected through freelisting and semi-structured interviews and participatory field collection and direct observation. Botanical plant sample specimens were collected, prepared, dried and identified. RESULTS: A total of 173 species and subspecies from 64 families and one species of lichen (Ramalina sp.) are used as WFP. There were differences on the saliency of wild food plant species among four ethnic groups. Consensus analysis revealed that knowledge of wild food plant use for each ethnic group differs from others with some variation in each group. Among informant attributes only age was related with the knowledge of wild food plant use, whereas no significant relationship was found between gender and age*gender and informants knowledge of wild food plant use. CONCLUSION: Wild food plants are still used extensively by local people in the NRWNNR, some of them on a daily base. This diversity of wild food plants provide important source of nutrients for the local communities which much of their caloric intake comes from one or few crops. The results also show the role of ethnicity on the preference and use of wild food plants. There is a big potential for harvesting, participatory domestication and marketing of WFPs especially in the tourism sector in the area.

Ethnobotanical study of medicinal plants utilised by Hani ethnicity in Naban River Watershed National Nature Reserve, Yunnan, China.

AIM OF THE STUDY: This study was conducted in the Naban River Watershed National Nature Reserve to identify and analyse knowledge and use of wild plants for medicinal purposes by Hani ethnicity and to search out culturally as well as economically important plant species and land use types. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Ethnobotanical data was collected using freelisting interviews with randomly selected informants and semi-structured as well as field interviews. Plant specimens were collected, identified and deposited at the Herbarium of Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Mengla, Yunnan Province, China. Data were analysed by use-reports, in addition important indices like relative frequency of citation (RFC) and cultural importance index (CI) were calculated. Smith's salience index was assessed using Anthropac 4.08. Consensus analysis was applied to measure informant agreement on plants used in different medicinal use categories. RESULTS: A total of 199 medicinal plants belonging to 73 families were recorded. Dominant families are Asteraceae (5.5%), Piperaceae and Verbenaceae (4.5%), Fabaceae, Liliaceae (4.0%) and Euphorbiaceae, Lamiaceae and Solanaceae (3.5%). Most culturally salient species from freelisting analysis were Dendrobium crepidatum Lindl. ex Paxt. (Smith's SI=0.41), Aristolochia sp. (0.306), Microstegium ciliatum (Trin.) A. Camus (0.129), Eupatorium coelestinum L. (0.119), Litsea martabanica (Kurz) Hook. F. (0.116) and Psidium guajava L. (0.103). The majority of the utilised species were collected from forest (51.9%), followed by fallow land (22.52%), arable fields (14.5%), and homegardens (11.08%). CONCLUSIONS: It became clear that the knowledge of medicinal plants is not homogenously distributed among Hani. Based on the percentage of collected medicinal plants from four habitat types, forest is the most important source of medicinal plants for Hani but when considering the cultural importance of species it seems that homegardens are slightly more important than other habitats.

Entomopathogens (Beauveria bassiana and Steinernema carpocapsae) for biological control of bark-feeding moth Indarbela dea on field-infested litchi trees.

BACKGROUND: The bark-feeding moth Indarbela dea (Swinhoe) is one of the major pests of litchi (Litchi chinensis Sonn.) in Asia. Effects on larval mortality and web production were tested by repeated, single and combined tree trunk applications of the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana (Bals.) Vuill. and the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema carpocapsae (Weiser). Two separate application trials were conducted in different seasons on young and older larvae respectively. RESULTS: In both trials, complete or nearly complete mortality (100% and 95%) of the larvae was achieved 3 weeks after application of S. carpocapsae alone and 2 weeks after the combined application of B. bassiana and S. carpocapsae (100% in both trials). However, in the combined application, all larvae were killed by one treatment, while the application of S. carpocapsae alone needed to be repeated to reach the same result. The effectiveness of the combined entomopathogen application and of the application of S. carpocapsae alone was not influenced by the age of the larvae. However, the single applications of B. bassiana were only effective on young larvae. In both trials, web production of surviving larvae was very significantly reduced by the application of S. carpocapsae in single and combined treatments. CONCLUSIONS: As the results show, only one application is necessary in the combined application of the two entomopathogens to control I. dea, which implies that such treatment is probably the economically most relevant solution.