The influence of diurnal temperature variation on degree-day accumulation and insect life history.

Ectotherms, such as insects, experience non-constant temperatures in nature. Daily mean temperatures can be derived from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures. However, the converse is not true and environments with the same mean temperature can exhibit very different diurnal temperate ranges. Here we apply a degree-day model for development of the grape berry moth (Paralobesia viteana, a significant vineyard pest in the northeastern USA) to investigate how different diurnal temperature range conditions can influence degree-day accumulation and, hence, insect life history. We first consider changes in diurnal temperature range independent of changes in mean temperatures. We then investigate grape berry moth life history under potential climate change conditions, increasing mean temperature via variable patterns of change to diurnal temperature range. We predict that diurnal temperature range change can substantially alter insect life history. Altering diurnal temperature range independent of the mean temperature can affect development rate and voltinism, with the magnitude of the effects dependent on whether changes occur to the daily minimum temperature (Tmin), daily maximum temperature (Tmax), or both. Allowing for an increase in mean temperature produces more marked effects on life history but, again, the patterns and magnitude depend on the nature of the change to diurnal temperature range together with the starting conditions in the local environment. The study highlights the importance of characterizing the influence of diurnal temperature range in addition to mean temperature alone.

Using ecological indicators and a decision support system for integrated ecological assessment at two national park units in the mid-Atlantic region, USA.

We implemented an integrated ecological assessment using a GIS-based decision support system model for Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River (UPDE) and Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (DEWA)-national park units with the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Our assessment examined a variety of aquatic and terrestrial indicators of ecosystem components that reflect the parks' conservation purpose and reference condition. Our assessment compared these indicators to ecological thresholds to determine the condition of park watersheds. Selected indicators included chemical and physical measures of water quality, biologic indicators of water quality, and landscape condition measures. For the chemical and physical measures of water quality, we used a water quality index and each of its nine components to assess the condition of water quality in each watershed. For biologic measures of water quality, we used the Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera aquatic macroinvertebrate index and, secondarily, the Hilsenhoff aquatic macroinvertebrate index. Finally, for the landscape condition measures of our model, we used percent forest and percent impervious surface. Based on our overall assessment, UPDE and DEWA watersheds had an ecological assessment score of 0.433 on a -1 to 1 fuzzy logic scale. This score indicates that, in general, the natural resource condition within watersheds at these parks is healthy or ecologically unimpaired; however, we had only partial data for many of our indicators. Our model is iterative and new data may be incorporated as they become available. These natural parks are located within a rapidly urbanizing landscape-we recommend that natural resource managers remain vigilant to surrounding land uses that may adversely affect natural resources within the parks.

Estimating West Nile virus transmission period in Pennsylvania using an optimized degree-day model.

Abstract We provide calibrated degree-day models to predict potential West Nile virus (WNV) transmission periods in Pennsylvania. We begin by following the standard approach of treating the degree-days necessary for the virus to complete the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), and mosquito longevity as constants. This approach failed to adequately explain virus transmission periods based on mosquito surveillance data from 4 locations (Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Williamsport) in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. Allowing the EIP and adult longevity to vary across time and space improved model fit substantially. The calibrated models increase the ability to successfully predict the WNV transmission period in Pennsylvania to 70-80% compared to less than 30% in the uncalibrated model. Model validation showed the optimized models to be robust in 3 of the locations, although still showing errors for Philadelphia. These models and methods could provide useful tools to predict WNV transmission period from surveillance datasets, assess potential WNV risk, and make informed mosquito surveillance strategies.

Projecting insect voltinism under high and low greenhouse gas emission conditions.

We develop individual-based Monte Carlo methods to explore how climate change can alter insect voltinism under varying greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by using input distributions of diapause termination or spring emergence, development rate, and diapause initiation, linked to daily temperature and photoperiod. We show concurrence of these projections with a field dataset, and then explore changes in grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), voltinism that may occur with climate projections developed from the average of three climate models using two different future emissions scenarios from the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). Based on historical climate data from 1960 to 2008, and projected downscaled climate data until 2099 under both high (A1fi) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we used concepts of P. viteana biology to estimate distributions of individuals entering successive generations per year. Under the low emissions scenario, we observed an earlier emergence from diapause and a shift in mean voltinism from 2.8 to 3.1 generations per year, with a fraction of the population achieving a fourth generation. Under the high emissions scenario, up to 3.6 mean generations per year were projected by the end of this century, with a very small fraction of the population achieving a fifth generation. Changes in voltinism in this and other species in response to climate change likely will cause significant economic and ecological impacts, and the methods presented here can be readily adapted to other species for which the input distributions are reasonably approximated.

Geographic variation in diapause induction: the grape berry moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae).

Diapause in insects occurs in response to environmental cues, such as changes in photoperiod, and it is a major adaptation by which insects synchronize their activity with biotic resources and environmental constraints. For multivoltine agricultural insect pests, diapause initiation is an important consideration in management decisions, particularly toward the end of the growing season. The grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), is the main insect pest affecting viticulture, and this insect responds to postsummer solstice photoperiods to initiate diapause. Because the range of grape berry moth extends from southern Canada to the southern United States, different populations are exposed to different photoperiodic regimes. We quantified the diapause response in grape berry moth populations from Arkansas, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia, and observed latitudinal variation in diapause initiation. Populations from Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania responded significantly different than those from Arkansas, Texas, and Virginia. We also observed, as a consequence of our experiments, that the timing of our laboratory studies influenced grape berry moth's response to photoperiod, ceteris paribus. Experiments that were conducted when grape berry moth would be naturally in diapause resulted in a significant higher proportion of diapausing pupae at photoperiods (i.e., >15 h) that generally do not induce diapause, suggesting that attention should be paid to the timing of behavioral and physiological experiments on insects. This relationship between photoperiod and diapause induction in grape berry moth across geographic regions will provide applicable knowledge to improve pest management decisions.

Carbaryl resistance in populations of grape berry moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in New York and Pennsylvania.

We collected grape berry moth, Endopiza viteana (Clemens) (from cultivated and wild Vitis along Lake Erie in Pennsylvania and New York), and measured carbaryl susceptibility in first instars. A model of susceptibility was based on the concentration-mortality curve of laboratory-maintained colonies originating from wild Vitis with no prior history of carbaryl exposure, and a noncommercial vineyard with modest previous exposure to carbaryl. We estimated LC50 and LC90 for susceptible grape berry moth larvae at 45.4 and 2319 microg/ml, respectively. Bioassays on field-collected larvae from commercial vineyards in both states, where grape growers were abiding by current pest management guidelines for carbaryl use, revealed carbaryl resistance ratios from 7 to 71 at the LC50 level. With the loss or restriction of alternative chemical control tactics in the Food Quality Protection Act era, resistance management programs for grape berry moth should be immediately developed and implemented to regain the efficacy of this once effective insecticide and other related chemical compounds.