Third international challenge to model the medium- to long-range transport of radioxenon to four Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations.

In 2015 and 2016, atmospheric transport modeling challenges were conducted in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification, however, with a more limited scope with respect to emission inventories, simulation period and number of relevant samples (i.e., those above the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC)) involved. Therefore, a more comprehensive atmospheric transport modeling challenge was organized in 2019. Stack release data of Xe-133 were provided by the Institut National des Radioéléments/IRE (Belgium) and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories/CNL (Canada) and accounted for in the simulations over a three (mandatory) or six (optional) months period. Best estimate emissions of additional facilities (radiopharmaceutical production and nuclear research facilities, commercial reactors or relevant research reactors) of the Northern Hemisphere were included as well. Model results were compared with observed atmospheric activity concentrations at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations located in Europe and North America with overall considerable influence of IRE and/or CNL emissions for evaluation of the participants' runs. Participants were prompted to work with controlled and harmonized model set-ups to make runs more comparable, but also to increase diversity. It was found that using the stack emissions of IRE and CNL with daily resolution does not lead to better results than disaggregating annual emissions of these two facilities taken from the literature if an overall score for all stations covering all valid observed samples is considered. A moderate benefit of roughly 10% is visible in statistical scores for samples influenced by IRE and/or CNL to at least 50% and there can be considerable benefit for individual samples. Effects of transport errors, not properly characterized remaining emitters and long IMS sampling times (12-24 h) undoubtedly are in contrast to and reduce the benefit of high-quality IRE and CNL stack data. Complementary best estimates for remaining emitters push the scores up by 18% compared to just considering IRE and CNL emissions alone. Despite the efforts undertaken the full multi-model ensemble built is highly redundant. An ensemble based on a few arbitrary runs is sufficient to model the Xe-133 background at the stations investigated. The effective ensemble size is below five. An optimized ensemble at each station has on average slightly higher skill compared to the full ensemble. However, the improvement (maximum of 20% and minimum of 3% in RMSE) in skill is likely being too small for being exploited for an independent period.

Atmospheric modeling and source reconstruction of radioactive ruthenium from an undeclared major release in 2017.

In October 2017 unusual 106Ru detections across most of Europe prompted the Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) to analyze the event in order to locate the origin and identify the magnitude of the release. This paper presents the inverse modeling techniques used during the event to achieve this goal. The method is based on a variational approach and consists of using air concentration measurements with the ldX long-range dispersion model included in the IRSN's C3X operational platform. The method made it possible to quickly identify the southern Urals as the most likely geographical origin of the release. Despite uncertainties regarding the starting date of the release, calculations show that it potentially began on 23 September, while most of the release was emitted on 26 September. Among the nuclear plants identified in the southern Urals, the Mayak complex is that from which the dispersion of the 106Ru plume is most consistent with observations. The reconstructed 106Ru source term from Mayak is ∼250 TBq. In total, it was found that for 72% of the measurements simulated and observed air concentration agreed within a factor of 5. In addition, the simulated deposition of 106Ru agrees with the observed deposition. Outside the southern Urals, the simulations indicate that areas with highest deposition values are located in southern Scandinavia and southeastern Bulgaria and are explained by rainfall events occurring while the plume was passing over.

Airborne concentrations and chemical considerations of radioactive ruthenium from an undeclared major nuclear release in 2017.

In October 2017, most European countries reported unique atmospheric detections of aerosol-bound radioruthenium (106Ru). The range of concentrations varied from some tenths of µBq·m-3 to more than 150 mBq·m-3 The widespread detection at such considerable (yet innocuous) levels suggested a considerable release. To compare activity reports of airborne 106Ru with different sampling periods, concentrations were reconstructed based on the most probable plume presence duration at each location. Based on airborne concentration spreading and chemical considerations, it is possible to assume that the release occurred in the Southern Urals region (Russian Federation). The 106Ru age was estimated to be about 2 years. It exhibited highly soluble and less soluble fractions in aqueous media, high radiopurity (lack of concomitant radionuclides), and volatility between 700 and 1,000 °C, thus suggesting a release at an advanced stage in the reprocessing of nuclear fuel. The amount and isotopic characteristics of the radioruthenium release may indicate a context with the production of a large 144Ce source for a neutrino experiment.

Potential Source Apportionment and Meteorological Conditions Involved in Airborne 131I Detections in January/February 2017 in Europe.

Traces of particulate radioactive iodine (131I) were detected in the European atmosphere in January/February 2017. Concentrations of this nuclear fission product were very low, ranging 0.1 to 10 µBq m-3 except at one location in western Russia where they reached up to several mBq m-3. Detections have been reported continuously over an 8-week period by about 30 monitoring stations. We examine possible emission source apportionments and rank them considering their expected contribution in terms of orders of magnitude from typical routine releases: radiopharmaceutical production units > sewage sludge incinerators > nuclear power plants > spontaneous fission of uranium in soil. Inverse modeling simulations indicate that the widespread detections of 131I resulted from the combination of multiple source releases. Among them, those from radiopharmaceutical production units remain the most likely. One of them is located in Western Russia and its estimated source term complies with authorized limits. Other existing sources related to 131I use (medical purposes or sewage sludge incineration) can explain detections on a rather local scale. As an enhancing factor, the prevailing wintertime meteorological situations marked by strong temperature inversions led to poor dispersion conditions that resulted in higher concentrations exceeding usual detection limits in use within the informal Ring of Five (Ro5) monitoring network.

Multivariate analysis identifies the estradiol level at ovulation triggering as an independent predictor of the first trimester pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A level in IVF/ICSI pregnancies.

STUDY QUESTION: Can independent predictors of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) levels be identified in a group of women who conceived following IVF/ICSI? SUMMARY ANSWER: The significantly decreased PAPP-A level in IVF and ICSI pregnancies compared with non-IVF/ICSI pregnancies was correlated strongly with the serum estradiol (E2) level at ovulation triggering. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The first trimester prenatal combined screening test for fetal aneuploidies in pregnancies conceived following assisted reproduction techniques (ART) is complicated by an alteration of the maternal biomarkers free ß-hCG and PAPP-A, causing a higher false-positive rate compared with pregnancies which are conceived naturally. The use of controlled ovarian stimulation prior to IVF/ICSI is suggested to be the principle reason for these alterations of biomarkers in ART pregnancies. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Between January 2010 and December 2011, 1474 women who conceived naturally and 374 women who conceived following IVF (n = 89), ICSI (n = 204) or intrauterine insemination (IUI, n = 81) were included in this retrospective study. Only singleton pregnancies were eligible for this study. For all women, serum analysis was performed in the same clinical laboratory. Measurement of nuchal translucency (NT) thickness was performed by four physicians belonging to the same infertility centre. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: First-trimester combined screening test of aneuploidy parameters (maternal age, PAPP-A and free ß-hCG, NT thickness) were compared between non-ART and ART (IVF, ICSI and IUI) singleton pregnancies. Next, a minimal threshold E2 level at ovulation triggering was suggested for IVF/ICSI pregnancies above which the PAPP-A levels were significantly decreased compared with non-ART pregnancies. Finally, a multivariate analysis was performed to reveal independent predictors of PAPP-A level in IVF/ICSI pregnancies. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We showed a decrease of the multiple of the median (MoM) PAPP-A level in IVF and ICSI singleton pregnancies compared with non-ART singleton pregnancies (P < 0.001), with MoM values of 0.74 (0.16-3.16) and 0.81 (0.12-4.61) versus 0.98 (0.14-5.76), respectively. Analysis of variance of the overall model was highly significant (Fisher test 3.76, P = 0.01), indicating that the model explains a significant portion of the variation in the data. No difference in PAPP-A level was found between non-ART and IUI pregnancies. The free ß-hCG level and NT thickness did not differ between ART and non-ART pregnancies. PAPP-A levels in IVF and ICSI pregnancies were strongly correlated with the E2 level at ovulation triggering. We showed by multivariate analysis that an E2 cut-off level of 1300 pg/ml at the time of ovulation could predict a significantly lower PAPP-A level at first trimester combined screening (ß -0.239 ± 0.088, P < 0.005). LIMITATION, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The measures of biochemical markers can differ between laboratories and with the used equipment; therefore, extrapolation of the E2 cut-off level to other infertility centres should be undertaken with caution. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: One should be careful when using correction factors for ART patients undergoing the first trimester combined screening test. The proposed E2 cut-off level may help to identify a subgroup of women within the population of ART patients for whom use of a correction factor is justified. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): None.