Residential mobility restrictions and adverse mental health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, several governments tried to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, with lockdowns that prohibited leaving one's residence unless carrying out a few essential services. We investigate the relationship between limitations to mobility and mental health in the UK during the first year and a half of the pandemic using a unique combination of high-frequency mobility data from Google and monthly longitudinal data collected through the Understanding Society survey. We find a strong and statistically robust correlation between mobility data and mental health survey data and show that increased residential stationarity is associated with the deterioration of mental wellbeing even when regional COVID-19 prevalence and lockdown stringency are controlled for. The relationship is heterogeneous, as higher levels of distress are seen in young, healthy people living alone; and in women, especially if they have young children.

Working parents, financial insecurity, and childcare: mental health in the time of COVID-19 in the UK.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the policy measures to control its spread-lockdowns, physical distancing, and social isolation-have coincided with the deterioration of people's mental well-being. We use data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) to document how this phenomenon is related to the situation of working parents who now have to manage competing time demands across the two life domains of work and home. We show that the deterioration of mental health is worse for working parents, and that it is strongly related to increased financial insecurity and time spent on childcare and home schooling. This burden is not shared equally between men and women, and between richer and poorer households. These inequalities ought to be taken into account when crafting policy responses.

Risk attitudes and human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Behavioural responses to pandemics are less shaped by actual mortality or hospitalisation risks than they are by risk attitudes. We explore human mobility patterns as a measure of behavioural responses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results indicate that risk-taking attitudes are a critical factor in predicting reductions in human mobility and social confinement around the globe. We find that the sharp decline in mobility after the WHO (World Health Organization) declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic can be attributed to risk attitudes. Our results suggest that regions with risk-averse attitudes are more likely to adjust their behavioural activity in response to the declaration of a pandemic even before official government lockdowns. Further understanding of the basis of responses to epidemics, e.g., precautionary behaviour, will help improve the containment of the spread of the virus.

How confidence in health care systems affects mobility and compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Confidence in the health care system implies an expectation that sufficient and appropriate treatments will be provided if needed. The COVID-19 public health crisis is a significant, global, and (mostly) simultaneous test of the behavioral implications arising from this confidence. We explore whether populations reporting low levels of confidence in the health care system exhibit a stronger behavioral reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. We track the dynamic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic across 38 European countries and 621 regions by employing a large dataset on human mobility generated between February 15 and June 5, 2020 and a broad range of contextual factors (e.g., deaths or policy implementations). Using a time-dynamic framework we find that societies with low levels of health care confidence initially exhibit a faster response with respect to staying home. However, this reaction plateaus sooner, and after the plateau it declines with greater magnitude than does the response from societies with high health care confidence. On the other hand, regions with higher confidence in the health care system are more likely to reduce mobility once the government mandates that its citizens are not to leave home except for essential trips, compared to those with lower health care system confidence. Regions with high trust in the government but low confidence in the health care system dramatically reduce their mobility, suggesting a correlation for trust in the state with respect to behavioral responses during a crisis.

Towards a complex model of disaster behaviour.

This paper outlines why a move towards a complex adaptive systems model of behaviour is required if the goal is to generate better understanding of how individuals and groups interact with their environment in a disaster setting. To accomplish this objective, a bridge must be built between the broader social sciences and behavioural economics to incorporate discipline-specific insights that are needed to move towards complexity. This is only possible through a deeper understanding of behaviour and how the environment in which they occur can influence actions. It is then that one can counteract the poor behavioural predictions, flawed policies based on myth, inefficient design, and suboptimal outcomes that have flourished in the absence of a complex adaptive systems model. This paper provides a conceptual framework that draws on concepts from across the natural and social sciences, such as behavioural economics, endocrinology, psychology, sociobiology, and sociology in order to build an interactive theory of disaster behaviour.

Online sperm donors: the impact of family, friends, personality and risk perception on behaviour.

As informal sperm donation becomes more prevalent worldwide, understanding donor psychology and interactions is critical in providing effective policy, equitable legislative frameworks and frontline health support to an ever-growing number of global participants. We analyse data of informal sperm donors who were members of the connection website PrideAngel to identify the role and effect of several factors, e.g. kinship, social networks, personality, and risk perception, on behaviour. A key strength of the study is the ability to analyse various factors, such as the level and history of informal donation, risk concerns, number of women to whom donations are informally made and the number of offspring. Our results indicate donors who have also been active in formal clinical settings (compared with those who exclusively donate informally), donate to more women in the informal market and realise more offspring. Donor's sexual orientation also affects activity. From a personality perspective, conscientiousness provides comparative advantage. It is possible this characteristic provides positive externalities, as more conscientious men may be more efficient or organised in a market that requires increased cooperation and communication. The importance of kin and social networks seems to affect frequency of donation only, possibly representing a time constraint (or opportunity cost).

Haplotype association analysis of genes within the WNT signalling pathways in diabetic nephropathy.

BACKGROUND: Renal interstitial fibrosis and glomerular sclerosis are hallmarks of diabetic nephropathy (DN) and several studies have implicated members of the WNT pathways in these pathological processes. This study comprehensively examined common genetic variation within the WNT pathway for association with DN. METHODS: Genes within the WNT pathways were selected on the basis of nominal significance and consistent direction of effect in the GENIE meta-analysis dataset. Common SNPs and common haplotypes were examined within the selected WNT pathway genes in a white population with type 1 diabetes, discordant for DN (cases: n = 718; controls: n = 749). SNPs were genotyped using Sequenom or Taqman assays. Association analyses were performed using PLINK, to compare allele and haplotype frequencies in cases and controls. Correction for multiple testing was performed by either permutation testing or using false discovery rate. RESULTS: A logistic regression model including collection centre, duration of diabetes, and average HbA1c as covariates highlighted three SNPs in GSK3B (rs17810235, rs17471, rs334543), two in DAAM1 (rs1253192, rs1252906) and one in NFAT5 (rs17297207) as being significantly (P < 0.05) associated with DN, however these SNPs did not remain significant after correction for multiple testing. Logistic regression of haplotypes, with ESRD as the outcome, and pairwise interaction analyses did not yield any significant results after correction for multiple testing. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that both common SNPs and common haplotypes of WNT pathway genes are not strongly associated with DN. However, this does not completely exclude these or the WNT pathways from association with DN, as unidentified rare genetic or copy number variants could still contribute towards the genetic architecture of DN.

Association analysis of dyslipidemia-related genes in diabetic nephropathy.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) increases risk of the development of microvascular complications and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Dyslipidemia is a common risk factor in the pathogenesis of both CVD and diabetic nephropathy (DN), with CVD identified as the primary cause of death in patients with DN. In light of this commonality, we assessed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in thirty-seven key genetic loci previously associated with dyslipidemia in a T1D cohort using a case-control design. SNPs (n = 53) were genotyped using Sequenom in 1467 individuals with T1D (718 cases with proteinuric nephropathy and 749 controls without nephropathy i.e. normal albumin excretion). Cases and controls were white and recruited from the UK and Ireland. Association analyses were performed using PLINK to compare allele frequencies in cases and controls. In a sensitivity analysis, samples from control individuals with reduced renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate<60 ml/min/1.73 m(2)) were excluded. Correction for multiple testing was performed by permutation testing. A total of 1394 samples passed quality control filters. Following regression analysis adjusted by collection center, gender, duration of diabetes, and average HbA1c, two SNPs were significantly associated with DN. rs4420638 in the APOC1 region (odds ratio [OR] = 1.51; confidence intervals [CI]: 1.19-1.91; P = 0.001) and rs1532624 in CETP (OR = 0.82; CI: 0.69-0.99; P = 0.034); rs4420638 was also significantly associated in a sensitivity analysis (P = 0.016) together with rs7679 (P = 0.027). However, no association was significant following correction for multiple testing. Subgroup analysis of end-stage renal disease status failed to reveal any association. Our results suggest common variants associated with dyslipidemia are not strongly associated with DN in T1D among white individuals. Our findings, cannot entirely exclude these key genes which are central to the process of dyslipidemia, from involvement in DN pathogenesis as our study had limited power to detect variants of small effect size. Analysis in larger independent cohorts is required.

Lipoxins attenuate renal fibrosis by inducing let-7c and suppressing TGFßR1.

Lipoxins, which are endogenously produced lipid mediators, promote the resolution of inflammation, and may inhibit fibrosis, suggesting a possible role in modulating renal disease. Here, lipoxin A4 (LXA4) attenuated TGF-ß1-induced expression of fibronectin, N-cadherin, thrombospondin, and the notch ligand jagged-1 in cultured human proximal tubular epithelial (HK-2) cells through a mechanism involving upregulation of the microRNA let-7c. Conversely, TGF-ß1 suppressed expression of let-7c. In cells pretreated with LXA4, upregulation of let-7c persisted despite subsequent stimulation with TGF-ß1. In the unilateral ureteral obstruction model of renal fibrosis, let-7c upregulation was induced by administering an LXA4 analog. Bioinformatic analysis suggested that targets of let-7c include several members of the TGF-ß1 signaling pathway, including the TGF-ß receptor type 1. Consistent with this, LXA4-induced upregulation of let-7c inhibited both the expression of TGF-ß receptor type 1 and the response to TGF-ß1. Overexpression of let-7c mimicked the antifibrotic effects of LXA4 in renal epithelia; conversely, anti-miR directed against let-7c attenuated the effects of LXA4. Finally, we observed that several let-7c target genes were upregulated in fibrotic human renal biopsies compared with controls. In conclusion, these results suggest that LXA4-mediated upregulation of let-7c suppresses TGF-ß1-induced fibrosis and that expression of let-7c targets is dysregulated in human renal fibrosis.

Association analysis of canonical Wnt signalling genes in diabetic nephropathy.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Several studies have provided compelling evidence implicating the Wnt signalling pathway in the pathogenesis of diabetic nephropathy. Gene expression profiles associated with renal fibrosis have been attenuated through Wnt pathway modulation in model systems implicating Wnt pathway members as potential therapeutic targets for the treatment of diabetic nephropathy. We assessed tag and potentially functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; n = 31) in four key Wnt pathway genes (CTNNB1, AXIN2, LRP5 and LRP6) for association with diabetic nephropathy using a case-control design. METHODS: SNPs were genotyped using Sequenom or Taqman technologies in 1351 individuals with type 1 diabetes (651 cases with nephropathy and 700 controls without nephropathy). Cases and controls were white and recruited from the UK and Ireland. Association analyses were performed using PLINK, to compare allele and haplotype frequencies in cases and controls. Adjustment for multiple testing was performed by permutation testing. RESULTS: Following logistic regression analysis adjusted by collection centre, duration of T1D, and average HbA1c as covariates, a single SNP in LRP6 (rs1337791) was significantly associated with DN (OR = 0.74; CI: 0.57-0.97; P = 0.028), although this was not maintained following correction for multiple testing. Three additional SNPs (rs2075241 in LRP6; rs3736228 and rs491347 both in LRP5) were marginally associated with diabetic nephropathy, but none of the associations were replicated in an independent dataset. Haplotype and subgroup analysis (according to duration of diabetes, and end-stage renal disease) also failed to reveal an association with diabetic nephropathy. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that analysed common variants in CTNNB1, AXIN2, LRP5 and LRP6 are not strongly associated with diabetic nephropathy in type 1 diabetes among white individuals. Our findings, however, cannot entirely exclude these genes or other members of the Wnt pathway, from involvement in the pathogenesis of diabetic nephropathy as our study had limited power to detect variants with small effect size.

Genome-wide DNA methylation analysis for diabetic nephropathy in type 1 diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic nephropathy is a serious complication of diabetes mellitus and is associated with considerable morbidity and high mortality. There is increasing evidence to suggest that dysregulation of the epigenome is involved in diabetic nephropathy. We assessed whether epigenetic modification of DNA methylation is associated with diabetic nephropathy in a case-control study of 192 Irish patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D). Cases had T1D and nephropathy whereas controls had T1D but no evidence of renal disease. METHODS: We performed DNA methylation profiling in bisulphite converted DNA from cases and controls using the recently developed Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation27 BeadChip, that enables the direct investigation of 27,578 individual cytosines at CpG loci throughout the genome, which are focused on the promoter regions of 14,495 genes. RESULTS: Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis indicated that significant components of DNA methylation variation correlated with patient age, time to onset of diabetic nephropathy, and sex. Adjusting for confounding factors using multivariate Cox-regression analyses, and with a false discovery rate (FDR) of 0.05, we observed 19 CpG sites that demonstrated correlations with time to development of diabetic nephropathy. Of note, this included one CpG site located 18 bp upstream of the transcription start site of UNC13B, a gene in which the first intronic SNP rs13293564 has recently been reported to be associated with diabetic nephropathy. CONCLUSION: This high throughput platform was able to successfully interrogate the methylation state of individual cytosines and identified 19 prospective CpG sites associated with risk of diabetic nephropathy. These differences in DNA methylation are worthy of further follow-up in replication studies using larger cohorts of diabetic patients with and without nephropathy.

DNA methylation profiling in cell models of diabetic nephropathy.

We have previously identified differentially expressed genes in cell models of diabetic nephropathy and renal biopsies. Here we have performed quantitative DNA methylation profiling in cell models of diabetic nephropathy. Over 3,000 CpG units in the promoter regions of 192 candidate genes were assessed in unstimulated human mesangial cells (HMCs) and proximal tubular epithelial cells (PTCs) compared to HMCs or PTCs exposed to appropriate stimuli. A total of 301 CpG units across 38 genes (~20%) were identified as differentially methylated in unstimulated HMCs versus PTCs. Analysis of amplicon methylation values in unstimulated versus stimulated cell models failed to demonstrate a >20% difference between amplicons. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that (1) specific DNA methylation signatures are present in HMCs and PTCs, and (2) standard protocols for exposure of renal cells to stimuli that alter gene expression may be insufficient to replicate possible alterations in DNA methylation profiles in diabetic nephropathy.

Interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms exploring the Titanic and Lusitania disasters.

To understand human behavior, it is important to know under what conditions people deviate from selfish rationality. This study explores the interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms using data on the sinking of the Titanic and the Lusitania. We show that time pressure appears to be crucial when explaining behavior under extreme conditions of life and death. Even though the two vessels and the composition of their passengers were quite similar, the behavior of the individuals on board was dramatically different. On the Lusitania, selfish behavior dominated (which corresponds to the classical homo economicus); on the Titanic, social norms and social status (class) dominated, which contradicts standard economics. This difference could be attributed to the fact that the Lusitania sank in 18 min, creating a situation in which the short-run flight impulse dominated behavior. On the slowly sinking Titanic (2 h, 40 min), there was time for socially determined behavioral patterns to reemerge. Maritime disasters are traditionally not analyzed in a comparative manner with advanced statistical (econometric) techniques using individual data of the passengers and crew. Knowing human behavior under extreme conditions provides insight into how widely human behavior can vary, depending on differing external conditions.

Age-dependent DNA methylation of genes that are suppressed in stem cells is a hallmark of cancer.

Polycomb group proteins (PCGs) are involved in repression of genes that are required for stem cell differentiation. Recently, it was shown that promoters of PCG target genes (PCGTs) are 12-fold more likely to be methylated in cancer than non-PCGTs. Age is the most important demographic risk factor for cancer, and we hypothesized that its carcinogenic potential may be referred by irreversibly stabilizing stem cell features. To test this, we analyzed the methylation status of over 27,000 CpGs mapping to promoters of approximately 14,000 genes in whole blood samples from 261 postmenopausal women. We demonstrate that stem cell PCGTs are far more likely to become methylated with age than non-targets (odds ratio = 5.3 [3.8-7.4], P < 10(-10)), independently of sex, tissue type, disease state, and methylation platform. We identified a specific subset of 69 PCGT CpGs that undergo hypermethylation with age and validated this methylation signature in seven independent data sets encompassing over 900 samples, including normal and cancer solid tissues and a population of bone marrow mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (P < 10(-5)). We find that the age-PCGT methylation signature is present in preneoplastic conditions and may drive gene expression changes associated with carcinogenesis. These findings shed substantial novel insights into the epigenetic effects of aging and support the view that age may predispose to malignant transformation by irreversibly stabilizing stem cell features.

A GREM1 gene variant associates with diabetic nephropathy.

Gremlin, a cell growth and differentiation factor, promotes the development of diabetic nephropathy in animal models, but whether GREM1 gene variants associate with diabetic nephropathy is unknown. We comprehensively screened the 5' upstream region (including the predicted promoter), all exons, intron-exon boundaries, complete untranslated regions, and the 3' region downstream of the GREM1 gene. We identified 31 unique variants, including 24 with a minor allele frequency exceeding 5%, and 9 haplotype-tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (htSNPs). We selected one additional variant that we predicted to alter transcription factor binding. We genotyped 709 individuals with type 1 diabetes of whom 267 had nephropathy (cases) and 442 had no evidence of kidney disease (controls). Three individual SNPs significantly associated with nephropathy at the 5% level, and two remained significant after adjustment for multiple testing. Subsequently, we genotyped a replicate population comprising 597 cases and 502 controls: this population supported an association with one of the SNPs (rs1129456; P = 0.0003). Combined analysis, adjusted for recruitment center (n = 8), suggested that the T allele conferred greater odds of nephropathy (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.36 to 2.11). In summary, the GREM1 variant rs1129456 associates with diabetic nephropathy, perhaps explaining some of the genetic susceptibility to this condition.

Comparative analysis of DNA methylation profiles in peripheral blood leukocytes versus lymphoblastoid cell lines.

Previous reports have shown that DNA methylation profiles within primary human malignant tissues are altered when these cells are transformed into cancer cell lines. However, it is unclear if similar differences in DNA methylation profiles exist between DNA derived from peripheral blood leukocytes (PBLs) and corresponding Epstein-Barr Virus transformed lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs). To assess the utility of LCLs as a resource for methylation studies we have compared DNA methylation profiles in promoter and 5' regions of 318 genes in PBL and LCL sample pairs from patients with type 1 diabetes with or without nephropathy. We identified a total of 27 (approximately 8%) genes that revealed different DNA methylation profiles in PBL compared with LCL-derived DNA samples. In conclusion, although the profiles for most promoter regions were similar between PBL-LCL pairs, our results indicate that LCL-derived DNA may not be suitable for DNA methylation studies at least in diabetic nephropathy.

Genetic analysis of coronary artery disease single-nucleotide polymorphisms in diabetic nephropathy.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic nephropathy is a leading cause of end-stage renal disease. Premature mortality is common in patients with nephropathy, largely due to cardiovascular disease. Genetic variants implicated in macrovascular disease are therefore excellent candidates to assess for association with diabetic nephropathy. Recent genome-wide association studies have identified a total of 15 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are reproducibly associated with cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We initially assessed these SNPs for association in UK type 1 diabetic patients with (cases; n = 597) and without (controls; n = 502) nephropathy using iPLEX(TM) and TaqMan(R) assays. Replication studies were performed with DNA genotyped in a total of 2668 individuals from the British Isles. RESULTS: One SNP (rs4420638) on chromosome 19q13 was found to be significantly associated with diabetic nephropathy before (P = 0.0002) and after correction for multiple testing (P(corrected) = 0.002). We replicated this finding in a phenotypically similar case-control collection comprising 709 individuals with type 1 diabetes (P = 0.002; combined P < 0.00001; OR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.29-1.84). CONCLUSIONS: Our case-control data suggest that rs4420638, or a functional SNP in linkage disequilibrium with this SNP, may be associated with diabetic nephropathy.

Multiple superoxide dismutase 1/splicing factor serine alanine 15 variants are associated with the development and progression of diabetic nephropathy: the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications Genetics study.

BACKGROUND: Despite familial clustering of nephropathy and retinopathy severity in type 1 diabetes, few gene variants have been consistently associated with these outcomes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed an individual-based genetic association study with time to renal and retinal outcomes in 1,362 white probands with type 1 diabetes from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (DCCT/EDIC) study. Specifically, we genotyped 1,411 SNPs that capture common variations in 212 candidate genes for long-term complications and analyzed them for association with the time from DCCT baseline to event for renal and retinal outcomes using multivariate Cox proportion hazards models. To address multiple testing and assist interpretation of the results, false discovery rate q values were calculated separately for each outcome. RESULTS: We observed association between rs17880135 in the 3' region of superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1) and the incidence of both severe nephropathy (hazard ratio [HR] 2.62 [95% CI 1.64-4.18], P = 5.6 x 10(-5), q = 0.06) and persistent microalbuminuria (1.82 [1.29-2.57], P = 6.4 x 10(-4), q = 0.46). Sequencing and fine-mapping identified additional SOD1 variants, including rs202446, rs9974610, and rs204732, which were also associated (P < 10(-3)) with persistent microalbuminuria, whereas rs17880135 and rs17881180 were similarly associated with the development of severe nephropathy. Attempts to replicate the findings in three cross-sectional case-control studies produced equivocal results. We observed no striking differences between risk genotypes in serum SOD activity, serum SOD1 mass, or SOD1 mRNA expression in lymphoblastoid cell lines. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple variations in SOD1 are significantly associated with persistent microalbuminuria and severe nephropathy in the DCCT/EDIC study.

Association of VEGF-1499C-->T polymorphism with diabetic nephropathy in type 1 diabetes mellitus.

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is reported to be implicated in the development of diabetic nephropathy. We performed a case-control study to determine if VEGF-2578C-->A, VEGF-1499C-->T, and VEGF-635G-->C single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the VEGF gene are associated with predisposition to diabetic nephropathy in type 1 diabetes. Genomic DNA was obtained from Irish type 1 diabetic individuals with nephropathy (cases, n=242) and those without nephropathy (controls, n=301), in addition to 400 healthy control samples. These samples were genotyped for the three SNPs using TaqMan or Pyrosequencing technology. Chi-squared analyses revealed no significant differences in genotype or allele frequencies in cases versus controls for VEGF-2578C-->A (genotype, P=.58; allele, P=.52) and VEGF-635G-->C (genotype, P=.58; allele, P=.33). However, a positive association with diabetic nephropathy was observed for the VEGF-1499T allele in the Northern Ireland population (P <.001) and subsequently replicated in a separate population from the Republic of Ireland (P <.001; combined, P <.001). Carriage of the VEGF-1499T allele was associated with a twofold excess risk of developing diabetic nephropathy (OR=2.24, 95% CI=1.50-3.36, P <.0001). No significant differences were found between the healthy control population and the type 1 diabetic population. Our results suggest that the VEGF-1499T allele, or an allele in linkage disequilibrium with this allele, is associated with susceptibility to diabetic nephropathy in the Irish population.

Gene discovery in diabetic nephropathy.

Diabetic nephropathy affects approximately one third of diabetic patients and is the leading cause of end-stage renal disease. Identification of genetic susceptibility factors contributing to the development of diabetic nephropathy could facilitate prediction, development of improved treatments, and prevention of this devastating complication of diabetes. Although investigations to identify the causal genetic variants associated with diabetic nephropathy have been inconclusive, new approaches, including whole genome association scanning, offer hope for the future.