Patterns in Patient Encounters and Emergency Department Capacity in California, 2011-2021.

Importance: The health care system has undergone major changes in the past decade, and emergency department (ED) crowding has worsened over time; however, the most recent patterns in ED capacity and use in California have yet to be studied. Objective: To analyze patterns in ED capacity and utilization in California hospitals from 2011 to 2021. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data from the California Department of Health Care Access and Information and the US Census Bureau to analyze ED facility characteristics from more than 400 general acute care hospitals with more than 320 EDs in California as well as patients who presented to those EDs between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Linear patterns (measured by percentage change) in total annual ED capacity (volume of hospital beds, EDs, ED treatment stations, and trauma centers) and ED use (ED visits by disposition and acuity) were assessed as primary outcomes. Patterns in ambulance diversion hours and the number of patients who left the ED without being seen were also examined as secondary outcomes. Visit acuity was categorized into 5 levels by increasing severity (minor, low to moderate, moderate, severe without threat, and severe with threat) based on California Department of Health Care Access and Information descriptions corresponding to Current Procedural Terminology codes. Results: In the prepandemic period (2011-2019), the total population of California increased from 37 638 369 to 39 512 223 (5.0%; 95% CI, 4.1%-5.8%), then decreased to 39 237 836 in 2021 (0.7%; 95% CI, -3.9% to 2.5%). Over the entire study period (2011-2021), the total California population increased by 4.2% (95% CI, 3.3%-5.2%). From 2011 to 2019, the annual number of ED visits increased from 12 054 885 to 14 876 653 (23.4%; 95% CI, 20.0%-26.8%) before decreasing to 12 944 692 in 2021 (-13.0%; 95% CI, -33.1% to 7.1%); from 2011 to 2021, total ED visits increased by 7.4% (95% CI, 5.6%-9.1%). From 2011 to 2021, the total number of EDs decreased from 339 to 326 (-3.8%; 95% CI, -4.4% to -3.2%) and the total number of hospital beds decreased from 75 940 to 74 052 (-2.5%; 95% CI, -3.3% to -1.6%), while the number of ED treatment stations in these fewer EDs increased from 7159 to 8667 (21.1%; 95% CI, 19.7%-22.4%). The number of visits rated as severe with threat also increased, from 2 011 637 in 2011 to 3 375 539 in 2021 (67.8%; 95% CI, 59.7%-75.9%), while visits rated as minor decreased from 913 712 to 336 071 (-63.2%; 95% CI, -75.2% to -51.2%) over the same period. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, multiple measures of ED capacity did not proportionally increase with the increasing demand for services; however, the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have substantially affected some of these patterns. These findings may be helpful to policy makers and health care stakeholders when planning resource allocation of limited health care resources.

Magnetic Resonance Elastography vs Transient Elastography in Detection of Fibrosis and Noninvasive Measurement of Steatosis in Patients With Biopsy-Proven Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques and ultrasound-based transient elastography (TE) can be used in noninvasive diagnosis of fibrosis and steatosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We performed a prospective study to compare the performance of magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) vs TE for diagnosis of fibrosis, and MRI-based proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) analysis vs TE-based controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) for diagnosis of steatosis in patients undergoing biopsy to assess NAFLD. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study of 104 consecutive adults (56.7% female) who underwent MRE, TE, and liver biopsy analysis (using the histologic scoring system for NAFLD from the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network Scoring System) from October 2011 through May 2016 at a tertiary medical center. All patients received a standard clinical evaluation, including collection of history, anthropometric examination, and biochemical tests. The primary outcomes were fibrosis and steatosis. Secondary outcomes included dichotomized stages of fibrosis and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis vs no nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were used to compare performances of MRE vs TE in diagnosis of fibrosis (stages 1-4 vs 0) and MRI-PDFF vs CAP for diagnosis of steatosis (grades 1-3 vs 0) with respect to findings from biopsy analysis. RESULTS: MRE detected any fibrosis (stage 1 or more) with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-0.91), which was significantly higher than that of TE (AUROC, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.56-0.78). MRI-PDFF detected any steatosis with an AUROC of 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98-1.00), which was significantly higher than that of CAP (AUROC, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.75-0.96). MRE detected fibrosis of stages 2, 3, or 4 with AUROC values of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.83-0.96), 0.87 (95% CI, 0.78-0.96), and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.71-1.00); TE detected fibrosis of stages 2, 3, or 4 with AUROC values of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.77-0.95), 0.80 (95% CI, 0.67-0.93), and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.45-0.94). MRI-PDFF identified steatosis of grades 2 or 3 with AUROC values of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.82-0.97) and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.84-0.99); CAP identified steatosis of grades 2 or 3 with AUROC values of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.58-0.82) and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: In a prospective, cross-sectional study of more than 100 patients, we found MRE to be more accurate than TE in identification of liver fibrosis (stage 1 or more), using biopsy analysis as the standard. MRI-PDFF is more accurate than CAP in detecting all grades of steatosis in patients with NAFLD.