Towards an ecological modelling approach for assessing ionizing radiation impact on wildlife populations.

The emphasis of the international system of radiological protection of the environment is to protect populations of flora and fauna. Throughout the MODARIA programmes, the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has facilitated knowledge sharing, data gathering and model development on the effect of radiation on wildlife. We present a summary of the achievements of MODARIA I and II on wildlife dose effect modelling, extending to a new sensitivity analysis and model development to incorporate other stressors. We reviewed evidence on historical doses and transgenerational effects on wildlife from radioactively contaminated areas. We also evaluated chemical population modelling approaches, discussing similarities and differences between chemical and radiological impact assessment in wildlife. We developed population modelling methodologies by sourcing life history and radiosensitivity data and evaluating the available models, leading to the formulation of an ecosystem-based mathematical approach. This resulted in an ecologically relevant conceptual population model, which we used to produce advice on the evaluation of risk criteria used in the radiological protection of the environment and a proposed modelling extension for chemicals. This work seeks to inform stakeholder dialogue on factors influencing wildlife population responses to radiation, including discussions on the ecological relevance of current environmental protection criteria. The area of assessment of radiation effects in wildlife is still developing with underlying data and models continuing to be improved. IAEA's ongoing support to facilitate the sharing of new knowledge, models and approaches to Member States is highlighted, and we give suggestions for future developments in this regard.

Modelling the radioactive contamination of commercial fish species in the Barents Sea following a hypothetical short-term release to the Stepovogo Bay of Novaya Zemlya.

A dynamic modelling of radionuclides accumulation in commercial species in the Barents Sea is performed for hypothetical SCR accident with the dumped submarine K-27 at the Stepovogo Bay. Box radioecological model is employed for calculating the radionuclides dynamics in water, bottom sediments and marine biota. The model takes into account the seasonal fish migrations in the Barents Sea. The model allows predicting the dynamic effects of the radionuclide transfer in fish in case of an accidental water contamination. Maximum 137Cs activity concentrations in bottom sediments from the eastern part of the Barents Sea could be reached as late as 5-6 years after the accidental release. Based on the results of model calculations, assessment was made of doses to humans from consumption of seafood contaminated after a hypothetical SCR accident with K-27 at the Stepovogo Bay. The peak activity concentration of the released 137Cs in fish from the Stepovogo Bay is calculated to be 109 Bq∙kg-1, 90Sr - 12 Bq∙kg-1; both estimates are below the permissible activity concentrations of these radionuclides in commercial fish. Predicted maximum annual dose from consumption of fish from the Stepovogo Bay is 47 ± 18 µSv∙year-1, the Barents Sea fish - less than 3∙10-6 µSv∙year-1.137Cs is the major dose contributor; it provides more than 99% to the annual dose Radiation risks from consumption of the Barents Sea commercial fish are evaluated to be negligible in case of a hypothetical SCR accident with the submerged submarine K-27 in Stepovogo Bay of Novaya Zemlya.

Determination of radionuclide composition of the Russian NPPs atmospheric releases and dose assessment to population.

Original data on radionuclide activities in air emissions of Russian NPPs are presented based on direct on-site measurements in vent stacks of NPPs during an extensive survey in 2017-2018. For the first time, the detailed inventories of radionuclides in the air releases were directly measured for all types of nuclear reactors, employed in the Russian NPPs. Based on the results of measurements, annual doses for local populations around the Russian NPPs were estimated. The technogenic radionuclides, detected in the air emissions, were ranked according to their contribution in the annual dose. 14C is the major contributor for the annual dose from the atmospheric releases of LWGR reactors - almost 98% for Bilibino NPP's EGP-6 reactor, and up to 86% for RBMK-1000 reactors (Smolensk NPP). For PWR reactors (VVER) contribution to the annual dose from atmospheric releases is formed mostly by tritium, 14C and noble gases. Estimated annual doses for local populations in the vicinity of the Russian NPPs do not exceed 10-5 Sv/year. Atmospheric releases of 60Co, 134Cs, 137Cs and other aerosols, involved in the routine monitoring programs of Russian NPPs, do not contribute significantly to the annual dose. Based on these results, 14C and tritium will be included in the monitoring programs of atmospheric release control at all Russian NPPs; maximal permissible levels of annual releases for 14C and tritium will be established since 2019.

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario.

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of (90)Sr, (131)I and (137)Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.

Modelling the effects of ionizing radiation on survival of animal population: acute versus chronic exposure.

The objective of the present paper was application of a model, which was originally developed to simulate chronic ionizing radiation effects in a generic isolated population, to the case of acute exposure, and comparison of the dynamic features of radiation effects on the population survival in cases of acute and chronic exposure. Two modes of exposure were considered: acute exposure (2-35 Gy) and chronic lifetime exposure with the same integrated dose. Calculations were made for a generic mice population; however, the model can be applied for other animals with proper selection of parameter values. In case of acute exposure, in the range 2-11 Gy, the population response was in two phases. During a first phase, there was a depletion in population survival; the second phase was a recovery period due to reparation of damage and biosynthesis of new biomass. Model predictions indicate that a generic mice population, living in ideal conditions, has the potential for recovery (within a mouse lifetime period) from acute exposure with dose up to 10-11 Gy, i.e., the population may recover from doses above an LD50 (6.2 Gy). Following acute doses above 14 Gy, however, the mice population went to extinction without recovery. In contrast, under chronic lifetime exposures (500 days), radiation had little effect on population survival up to integrated doses of 14-15 Gy, so the survival of a population subjected to chronic exposure was much better compared with that after an acute exposure with the same dose. Due to the effect of "wasted radiation", the integrated dose of chronic exposure could be about two times higher than acute dose, producing the same effect on survival. It is concluded that the developed generic population model including the repair of radiation damage can be applied both to acute and chronic modes of exposure; results of calculations for generic mice population are in qualitative agreement with published data on radiation effects in mice.

Dynamics of radiation exposure to marine biota in the area of the Fukushima NPP in March-May 2011.

Estimates of radiation dose rates are presented for marine biota in March-May 2011 in the coastal zone near Fukushima NPP, and in the open sea. Calculations of fish contamination were made using two methods: a concentration factor approach, and a dynamic model. For representative marine organisms (fish and molluscs) the radiation dose rates did not exceed the reference level of 10 mGy/day. At a distance 30 km from the NPP, in the open sea the radiation doses for marine biota were much lower than those in the coastal zone near the NPP. Comparative estimates are presented for radiation doses to aquatic organisms in the exclusion zones of the Eastern Urals Radioactive Trail, and the Chernobyl NPP.

Radiation effects in generic populations inhabiting a limiting environment.

A generic population model is formulated for radiation risk assessment of natural biota. The model demonstrates that effects of radiation on the population survival do not follow directly the effects on individual organisms. Dose rates resulting in population extinction can be analytically calculated. Besides individual radiosensitivity, two key parameters were found to determine the survival potential of a population under chronic radiation stress: the ratio "biomass losses/biomass synthesis," and the lump amount of limiting resource in the environment. A benchmark scenario "Population response to chronic irradiation" developed within the IAEA Programme EMRAS II was calculated for generic populations of mice, hare/rabbit, wolf/wild dog, and deer/goat chronically exposed to different levels of ionizing radiation. In the conditions of the benchmark scenario, model populations survived normally (>90% of the control value) at dose rates below the following levels: 3 mGy day(-1) for wolf/wild dog; 10 mGy day(-1) for deer/goat; 14 mGy day(-1) for hare/rabbit; and 20 mGy day(-1) for mice. The model predictions showed a relatively high survival potential of short-lived and productive species such as mice. At the same time, populations of long-lived animals with slow and radiosensitive reproduction such as wolf/wild dog were candidates to extinction at chronic exposures above 5 mGy day(-1). Recovery of short-lived and productive species took a much shorter time compared with long-lived and slow reproductive species.

Comparative analysis of doses to aquatic biota in water bodies impacted by radioactive contamination.

Comparative analysis of doses to the reference species of freshwater biota was performed for the following water bodies in Russia or former USSR: Chernobyl NPPs cooling pond, Lakes Uruskul and Berdenish located in the Eastern Urals Radioactive Trace, Techa River, Yenisei River. It was concluded that the doses to biota were considerably different in the acute and chronic periods of radioactive contamination. The most vulnerable part of all considered aquatic ecosystems was benthic trophic chain. A numerical scale on the "dose rate - effects" relationships for fish was formulated. Threshold dose rates above which radiation effects can be expected in fish were evaluated to be the following: 1 mGy d(-1) for appearance of the first morbidity effects in fish; 5 mGy d(-1) for the first negative effects on reproduction system; 10 mGy d(-1) for the first effects on life shortening of fish. The results of dose assessment to biota were compared with the scale "dose rate - effects" and the literature data on the radiobiological effects observed in the considered water bodies. It was shown that in the most contaminated water bodies the dose rates were high enough to cause the radiobiological effects in fish.

Manifestation of radiation effects in cold environment: data review and modeling.

The peculiarities of radiation response in animals at low environmental temperatures are analyzed in the context of radiation safety of the Arctic/Northern wildlife. The paper includes a data review on radiation effects in cold environments based on international and Russian publications since 1948, which forms a supplement to the EPIC and FREDERICA data collections. In homoiothermic and heterothermic animals, imbalances in thermoregulation caused by ionizing radiation are discussed, which increase energy loss of animals, and decrease their fitness to the Arctic/Northern climate. In poikilothermic animals, both radiation damage and recovery are temperature dependent, their rates being slow in the cold environment. At low temperatures, radiation damage of biological tissues is conserved in hidden form; when the temperature of poikilothermic animal rises to a normal level, radiation injury is developed rapidly similar to acute dose response. Additionally, a mathematical model is described, demonstrating the combined effects of chronic radiation exposures and seasonal temperature variations on a fish population. Computer simulations show that at the same level of irradiation, the overall radiation damage to Arctic/Northern poikilothermic fish is higher than that to the fish from warm climate. Considering the peculiarities of radiation effects in the cold climate, the Arctic/Northern fauna might be expected to be more vulnerable to chronic radiation stress compared to temperate fauna. In the case of acute radiation exposure during winter periods, hibernation of heterothermic and cooling of poikilothermic animals may provide temporary protection from acute radiation effects.

[The reconstruction of radiation dose and risk assessment for population living near the Enisei River from the long-term period of exploitation of the Krasnoyarsk mining and chemical enterprise (1975-2000)].

Radiation doses and risks for population living near the Yenisei River have been reconstructed for the long-term period of radioactive discharges from Krasnoyarsk NCC to the river (1975-2000). The analysis of multiple pathways show that the consumption of local fish was the major contributor to the radiation dose to population living near the Yenisei River (more than 90%). 32P was the most important contributor among the discharged radionuclides at the distances 0-100 km downstream the Krasnoyarsk NCC. The maximum annual dose to critical group of population at the nearest area of the Krasnoyarsk NCC was estimated to be 0.95 mSv/year (in 1977), at the same time in settlement located 800 km downstream the discharge source it was 0.2 mSv/year. Since 1993, the doses to population do not exceed 0.02 mSv/year even for nearest area the Krasnoyarsk NCC (0-100 km downstream the discharge source).

Inter-comparison of models to estimate radionuclide activity concentrations in non-human biota.

A number of models have recently been, or are currently being, developed to enable the assessment of radiation doses from ionising radiation to non-human species. A key component of these models is the ability to predict whole-organism activity concentrations in a wide range of wildlife. In this paper, we compare the whole-organism activity concentrations predicted by eight models participating within the IAEA Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety programme for a range of radionuclides to terrestrial and freshwater organisms. In many instances, there was considerable variation, ranging over orders of magnitude, between the predictions of the different models. Reasons for this variability (including methodology, data source and data availability) are identified and discussed. The active participation of groups responsible for the development of key models within this exercise is a useful step forward in providing the transparency in methodology and data provenance required for models which are either currently being used for regulatory purposes or which may be used in the future. The work reported in this paper, and supported by other findings, demonstrates that the largest contribution to variability between model predictions is the parameterisation of their transfer components. There is a clear need to focus efforts and provide authoritative compilations of those data which are available.

Assessment of permissible levels of radionuclides in soil for different types of land-use.

Permissible levels of radionuclides in soil were estimated for different human dose criteria. A variety of land-use scenarios, which could lead to human exposure, was considered and all reasonably likely human exposure pathways were analyzed. The obtained estimates are potentially useful for supporting the decision-making process on the possible use or remediation of contaminated territories.

Modelling of effects due to chronic exposure of a fish population to ionizing radiation.

A dynamic model was developed for description of radiation effects in an isolated fish population chronically exposed at different dose rates. The induced effects were predicted based on damage created by the radiation, recovery by means of repair mechanisms, and natural growth of the population. Three types of radiation effects (umbrella endpoints) were simulated--decrease of population size, decrease of reproductive capacity, and effects on the morbidity of the population. The influence of ecological interactions on the irradiated fish population was simulated using the combined action of radiation and parasite infestation as an example (ecological interaction "host-parasite"). The model calculations demonstrate that influence of ecological interactions can considerably aggravate the effects of radiation to an exposed population. It was concluded that development of standards for wildlife protection against ionizing radiation requires consideration of possible ecological interactions and to take into account the ecological effects of radiation.

Inter-comparison of absorbed dose rates for non-human biota.

A number of approaches have been proposed to estimate the exposure of non-human biota to ionizing radiation. This paper reports an inter-comparison of the unweighted absorbed dose rates for the whole organism (compared as dose conversion coefficients, or DCCs) for both internal and external exposure, estimated by 11 of these approaches for selected organisms from the Reference Animals and Plants geometries as proposed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Inter-comparison results indicate that DCCs for internal exposure compare well between the different approaches, whereas variation is greater for external exposure DCCs. Where variation among internal DCCs is greatest, it is generally due to different daughter products being included in the DCC of the parent. In the case of external exposures, particularly to low-energy beta-emitters, variations are most likely to be due to different media densities being assumed. On a radionuclide-by-radionuclide basis, the different approaches tend to compare least favourably for (3)H, (14)C and the alpha-emitters. This is consistent with models with different source/target geometry assumptions showing maximum variability in output for the types of radiation having the lowest range across matter. The intercomparison demonstrated that all participating approaches to biota dose calculation are reasonably comparable, despite a range of different assumptions being made.

Mathematical simulation of dose-effect relationships for fish eggs exposed chronically to ionizing radiation.

A mathematical model which simulates the observed dose-effect relationships for fish eggs exposed to chronic irradiation is presented. The model assumes that the exposed fish eggs may exist in one of the following states: normally developing, reversibly damaged, and lethally damaged. Reversible damages may be recovered by repairing mechanisms which are spent for the repairing processes. The model was applied to describe the observed differences in effects of chronic exposure for quickly (2 weeks) and slowly (up to 20 weeks) developing fish eggs. Calculations were performed for dose rates of chronic irradiation ranging from 10 to 300 mGy/day. Two types of radiation effects were considered-the effect on eggs survival (percentage of survived eggs at time t), and the depletion of the repairing pool (in percentage of its maximal value). The model predictions have been compared with the experimental data from the EPIC database. This comparison showed that the model adequately describes the radiation effects in fish eggs of different species, within a wide range of chronic radiation exposures.

Model testing using data on 137Cs from Chernobyl fallout in the Iput River catchment area of Russia.

Data collected for 10 years following the Chernobyl accident in 1986 have provided a unique opportunity to test the reliability of computer models for contamination of terrestrial and aquatic environments. The Iput River scenario was used by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of the BIOMASS (Biosphere Modelling and Assessment Methods) programme. The test area was one of the most highly contaminated areas in Russia following the accident, with an average contamination density of 137Cs of 800,000 Bq m-2 and localized contamination up to 1,500,000 Bq m-2, and a variety of countermeasures that were implemented in the test area had to be considered in the modelling exercise. Difficulties encountered during the exercise included averaging of data to account for uneven contamination of the test area, simulating the downward migration and changes in bioavailability of 137Cs in soil, and modelling the effectiveness of countermeasures. The accuracy of model predictions is dependent at least in part on the experience and judgment of the participant in interpretation of input information, selection of parameter values, and treatment of uncertainties.

Model testing using data on 131I released from Hanford.

The Hanford test scenario described an accidental release of 131I to the environment from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant in September 1963. Based on monitoring data collected after the release, this scenario was used by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of BIOMASS to test models typically used in dose reconstructions. The primary exposure pathway in terms of contribution to human doses was ingestion of contaminated milk and vegetables. Predicted mean doses to the thyroid of reference individuals from ingestion of 131I ranged from 0.0001 to 0.8 mSv. For one location, predicted doses to the thyroids of two children with high milk consumption ranged from 0.006 to 2 mSv. The predicted deposition at any given location varied among participants by a factor of 5-80. The exercise provided an opportunity for comparison of assessment methods and conceptual approaches, testing model predictions against measurements, and identifying the most important contributors to uncertainty in the assessment result. Key factors affecting predictions included the approach to handling incomplete data, interpretation of input information, selection of parameter values, adjustment of models for site-specific conditions, and treatment of uncertainties.

Results of the European Commission MARINA II study: part I--general information and effects of discharges by the nuclear industry.

From the collated data relevant to discharges by the nuclear industry, it results that the input of beta activity (excluding Chernobyl fallout and tritium) into the OSPAR region decreased by a factor of 4 from 1986 to 1991, reaching by this date the same level as in the early 1950s. Over the same period the discharges of the alpha activity into the OSPAR region also decreased by a factor 3, the same trend has been seen also for tritium. Since 1986 the effective dose to members of the critical group in the vicinity of Sellafield and Cap de La Hague was consistently below the ICRP and EU limit of 1 mSv per year to members of the general public. The overall radiological impact from nuclear industry on the population of the European Union from the OSPAR area has decreased from 280 manSv y(-1) in 1978 to 14 manSv y(-1) in 2000.

Results of the European Commission Marina II study: part II--effects of discharges of naturally occurring radioactive material.

Enhanced levels of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) are produced through various industrial operations and may lead to discharges to the marine environment. A recent study, called MARINA II, carried out for the European Commission considered discharges of radionuclides from the NORM industries to north European marine waters and their consequences. There are two main sources that were considered in the study. The use of phosphogypsum during the production of phosphoric acid by the fertiliser industry and the pumping of oil and gas from the continental shelf in the North Sea which produces large quantities of water contaminated with enhanced levels of naturally occurring radionuclides. Discharges of alpha emitting radionuclides from these two industries have contributed significantly to the total input of alpha emitters to north European waters over the period 1981-2000 (data were not available prior to 1981). Discharges due to the use of phosphogypsum have declined since the early 1990s and are now very low. Discharges from the oil and gas industries stabilised in the second half of the 1990s and are now the major contributor to alpha discharges to the region. As most European countries do not report discharges of radioactivity with the water produced during extraction, there is considerable uncertainty in the discharges used in the study. The impact of the discharges has been estimated both in terms of the effect on non-human biota and the radiological impact for people. In the 1980s the radiation dose rates to marine biota in the region around a phosphate plant on the north-west coast of England were as high due to the discharges from the phosphate plant as those near to the Sellafield reprocessing plant due to its discharges. In recent years the additional dose to marine biota in this region due to the past NORM discharges is of the same order of magnitude as the natural background. The collective dose rate was estimated to determine the radiological impact on people. The peak collective dose rate from the NORM industries occurred in 1984 and was just over 600 manSv y(-1). The collective dose rate fell with time as discharges from the phosphate industry reduced and was estimated as under 200 manSv y(-1) in 2000.

EPIC database on the effects of chronic radiation in fish: Russian/FSU data.

The paper presents the extraction of data from the EPIC database, outlining the effects of chronic radiation exposure in fish. The EPIC database 'Radiation effects on aquatic biota' is compiled as part of the current EC Project EPIC (Environmental Protection from Ionizing Contaminants in the Arctic). The EPIC database is based on information from publications in Russian (Russian/former Soviet Union data). The data are focused on the effects in fish at relatively low doses of chronic radiation exposure. The effects are grouped by three key endpoints: morbidity, reproduction, and mortality/life shortening. A preliminary scale of dose-effects relationships for fish has been constructed.