Effective sample size estimation for a mechanical ventilation trial through Monte-Carlo simulation: Length of mechanical ventilation and Ventilator Free Days.

Randomised control trials have sought to seek to improve mechanical ventilation treatment. However, few trials to date have shown clinical significance. It is hypothesised that aside from effective treatment, the outcome metrics and sample sizes of the trial also affect the significance, and thus impact trial design. In this study, a Monte-Carlo simulation method was developed and used to investigate several outcome metrics of ventilation treatment, including 1) length of mechanical ventilation (LoMV); 2) Ventilator Free Days (VFD); and 3) LoMV-28, a combination of the other metrics. As these metrics have highly skewed distributions, it also investigated the impact of imposing clinically relevant exclusion criteria on study power to enable better design for significance. Data from invasively ventilated patients from a single intensive care unit were used in this analysis to demonstrate the method. Use of LoMV as an outcome metric required 160 patients/arm to reach 80% power with a clinically expected intervention difference of 25% LoMV if clinically relevant exclusion criteria were applied to the cohort, but 400 patients/arm if they were not. However, only 130 patients/arm would be required for the same statistical significance at the same intervention difference if VFD was used. A Monte-Carlo simulation approach using local cohort data combined with objective patient selection criteria can yield better design of ventilation studies to desired power and significance, with fewer patients per arm than traditional trial design methods, which in turn reduces patient risk. Outcome metrics, such as VFD, should be used when a difference in mortality is also expected between the two cohorts. Finally, the non-parametric approach taken is readily generalisable to a range of trial types where outcome data is similarly skewed.

Six-year follow-up of the SPHERE RCT: secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the long-term effectiveness of a complex intervention in primary care aimed at improving outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease. DESIGN: A 6-year follow-up of a cluster randomised controlled trial, which found after 18 months that both total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were significantly reduced in intervention practices (8% absolute reduction). SETTING: 48 general practices in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. PARTICIPANTS: 903 patients with established coronary heart disease at baseline in the original trial. INTERVENTION: The original intervention consisted of tailored practice and patient plans; training sessions for practitioners in medication prescribing and behavioural change; and regular patient recall system. Control practices provided usual care. Following the intervention period, all supports from the research team to intervention practices ceased. PRIMARY OUTCOME: hospital admissions, all cause and cardiovascular; secondary outcomes: mortality; blood pressure and cholesterol control. RESULTS: At 6-year follow-up, data were collected from practice records of 696 patients (77%). For those who had died, we censored their data at the point of death and cause of death was established. There were no significant differences between the intervention and control practices in either total (OR 0.83 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.28)) or cardiovascular hospital admissions (OR 0.91 (95% CI 0.49 to 1.65)). We confirmed mortality status of 886 of the original 903 patients (98%). There were no significant differences in mortality (15% in intervention and 16% in control) or in the proportions of patients above target control for systolic blood pressure or total cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: Initial significant differences in the numbers of total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were not maintained at 6 years and no differences were found in mortality or blood pressure and cholesterol control. Policymakers need to continue to assess the effectiveness of previously efficacious programmes. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24081411.

Assessing the Effectiveness of Selected Biomarkers in the Acute and Cumulative Physiological Stress Response in Professional Rugby Union through Non-invasive Assessment.

Rugby union is a sport involving high force and frequency impacts making the likelihood of injury a significant risk. The aim of this study was to measure and report the individual and group acute and cumulative physiological stress response during 3 professional rugby games through non-invasive sampling. 24 professional rugby players volunteered for the study. Urine and saliva samples were collected pre and post 3 matches. Myoglobin, salivary immunoglobulin A, cortisol, neopterin and total neopterin (neopterin+7,8-dihydroneopterin) were analysed by high performance liquid chromatography or enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Significant increases in cortisol, myoglobin, neopterin and total neopterin when urine volume was corrected with specific gravity were observed (p<0.05). Significant decreases in salivary immunoglobulin A concentration were observed for games 1 and 2 while secretion rate decreased after games 2 and 3. Significant decreases were seen with the percent of 7,8-dihydroneopterin being converted to neopterin following games 2 and 3. The intensity of 3 professional rugby games was sufficient to elicit significant changes in the physiological markers selected for our study. Furthermore, results suggest the selected markers not only provide a means for analysing the stress encountered during a single game of rugby but also highlight the unique pattern of response for each individual player.

Haemodynamic kinetics and intermittent finger flexor performance in rock climbers.

Currently it is unclear whether blood flow (BF) or muscle oxidative capacity best governs performance during intermittent contractions to failure. The aim of this study was to determine oxygenation kinetics and BF responses during intermittent (10 s contraction: 3 s release) contractions at 40% of MVC in rock climbers of different ability (N=38). Total forearm BF, as well as de-oxygenation and re-oxygenation of the flexor digitorum profundus (FDP) and the flexor carpi radialis (FCR) were assessed. Compared to the control, intermediate and advanced groups, the elite climbers had a significantly (p<0.05) greater force time integral (FTI), MVC and MVC/kg. Furthermore, the elite climbers de-oxygenated the FDP significantly more during the first (7.8, 11.9, 12.4 vs. 15.7 O2%) and middle (7.3, 8.8, 10.4 vs.15.3 O2%) phases of contractions as well as for the FCR during the first phase only (8.3, 7, 11.7 vs. 13.3 O2%). They also had a significantly higher BF upon release of the contractions (656, 701, 764 vs. 971 mL ∙ min(-1)). The higher FTI seen in elite climbers may be attributable to a greater blood delivery, and an enhanced O2 recovery during the 3 s release periods, as well as a superior muscle oxidative capacity associated with the greater de-oxygenation during the 10 s contractions.

Acute childhood asthma in Galway city from 1985-2005: relationship to air pollution and climate.

We examine the relationship of air pollution and climatic variables to asthma admission rates of children in Galway city over a 21 year period. Paediatric asthma admissions were recorded from 1985-2005, and admission rates per thousand calculated for pre-school (1-4 years), school aged (5-14 years) and all children (1-14 years) on a monthly and annual basis. These data were compared to average monthly and annual climatic variables (rainfall, humidity, sunshine, wind speed and temperature) and black smoke levels for the city. Simple correlation and Poisson Generalized Additive Models (GAM) were used. Admission rates each month are significantly correlated with smoke levels (p = 0.007). Poisson GAM also shows a relationship between admissions and pollution (p = 0.07). Annual smoke levels impact more on admission rates of preschoolers (p = 0.04) than school age children (p = 0.10). These data suggest that air pollution is an important factor in the epidemiology of acute childhood asthma.

Plasma cortisol concentrations and perceived anxiety in response to on-sight rock climbing.

Previous research suggested plasma cortisol concentrations in response to rock climbing have a cubic relationship with state anxiety and self-confidence. This research, however, was conducted in a situation where the climbers had previously climbed the route. The purpose of our study was to examine this relationship in response to on-sight climbing. Nineteen (13 male, 6 female) intermediate climbers volunteered to attend anthropometric and baseline testing sessions, prior to an on-sight ascent (lead climb or top-rope) of the test climb (grade 19 Ewbank/6a sport/5.10b YDS). Data recorded included state anxiety, self-confidence and cortisol concentrations prior to completing the climb. Results indicated that there were no significant differences in state anxiety, self-confidence and plasma cortisol concentration regardless of the style of ascent (lead climb or top-rope) in an on-sight sport climbing context. Regression analysis indicated there was a significant linear relationship between plasma cortisol concentrations and self-confidence (r= - 0.52, R2=0.267, p=0.024), cognitive (r=0.5, R2=0.253, p=0.028), and somatic anxieties (r=0.46, R2=0.210, p=0.049). In an on-sight condition the relationships between plasma cortisol concentrations with anxiety (cognitive and somatic) and self-confidence were linear.