Summary of Radiation Research Society Online 67th Annual Meeting, Symposium on "Radiation and Circulatory Effects".

PURPOSE: This article summarizes a number of presentations from a session on "Radiation and Circulatory Effects" held during the Radiation Research Society Online 67th Annual Meeting, October 3-6 2021. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Different epidemiological cohorts were analyzed with various statistical means common in epidemiology. The cohorts included the one from the U.S. Million Person Study and the Canadian Fluoroscopy Cohort Study. In addition, one of the contributions in our article relies on results from analyses of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, Russian emergency and recovery workers and cohorts of nuclear workers. The Canadian Fluoroscopy Cohort Study data were analyzed with a larger series of linear and nonlinear dose-response models in addition to the linear no-threshold (LNT) model. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The talks in this symposium showed that low/moderate acute doses at low/moderate dose rates can be associated with an increased risk of CVD, although some of the epidemiological results for occupational cohorts are equivocal. The usually only limited availability of information on well-known risk factors for circulatory disease (e.g. smoking, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, physical activity) is an important limiting factor that may bias any observed association between radiation exposure and detrimental health outcome, especially at low doses. Additional follow-up and careful dosimetric and outcome assessment are necessary and more epidemiological and experimental research is required. Obtaining reliable information on other risk factors is especially important.

Radio-biologically motivated modeling of radiation risks of mortality from ischemic heart diseases in the Canadian fluoroscopy cohort study.

Recent analyses of the Canadian fluoroscopy cohort study reported significantly increased radiation risks of mortality from ischemic heart diseases (IHD) with a linear dose-response adjusted for dose fractionation. This cohort includes 63,707 tuberculosis patients from Canada who were exposed to low-to-moderate dose fractionated X-rays in 1930s-1950s and were followed-up for death from non-cancer causes during 1950-1987. In the current analysis, we scrutinized the assumption of linearity by analyzing a series of radio-biologically motivated nonlinear dose-response models to get a better understanding of the impact of radiation damage on IHD. The models were weighted according to their quality of fit and were then mathematically superposed applying the multi-model inference (MMI) technique. Our results indicated an essentially linear dose-response relationship for IHD mortality at low and medium doses and a supra-linear relationship at higher doses (> 1.5 Gy). At 5 Gy, the estimated radiation risks were fivefold higher compared to the linear no-threshold (LNT) model. This is the largest study of patients exposed to fractionated low-to-moderate doses of radiation. Our analyses confirm previously reported significantly increased radiation risks of IHD from doses similar to those from diagnostic radiation procedures.

Correction to: Dose-responses for mortality from cerebrovascular and heart diseases in atomic bomb survivors: 1950-2003.

The article Dose-responses for mortality from cerebrovascular and heart diseases in atomic bomb survivors: 1950-2003, written by Helmut Schöllnberger.

Dose-responses for mortality from cerebrovascular and heart diseases in atomic bomb survivors: 1950-2003.

The scientific community faces important discussions on the validity of the linear no-threshold (LNT) model for radiation-associated cardiovascular diseases at low and moderate doses. In the present study, mortalities from cerebrovascular diseases (CeVD) and heart diseases from the latest data on atomic bomb survivors were analyzed. The analysis was performed with several radio-biologically motivated linear and nonlinear dose-response models. For each detrimental health outcome one set of models was identified that all fitted the data about equally well. This set was used for multi-model inference (MMI), a statistical method of superposing different models to allow risk estimates to be based on several plausible dose-response models rather than just relying on a single model of choice. MMI provides a more accurate determination of the dose response and a more comprehensive characterization of uncertainties. It was found that for CeVD, the dose-response curve from MMI is located below the linear no-threshold model at low and medium doses (0-1.4 Gy). At higher doses MMI predicts a higher risk compared to the LNT model. A sublinear dose-response was also found for heart diseases (0-3 Gy). The analyses provide no conclusive answer to the question whether there is a radiation risk below 0.75 Gy for CeVD and 2.6 Gy for heart diseases. MMI suggests that the dose-response curves for CeVD and heart diseases in the Lifespan Study are sublinear at low and moderate doses. This has relevance for radiotherapy treatment planning and for international radiation protection practices in general.

A mechanistic model for atherosclerosis and its application to the cohort of Mayak workers.

We propose a stochastic model for use in epidemiological analysis, describing the age-dependent development of atherosclerosis with adequate simplification. The model features the uptake of monocytes into the arterial wall, their proliferation and transition into foam cells. The number of foam cells is assumed to determine the health risk for clinically relevant events such as stroke. In a simulation study, the model was checked against the age-dependent prevalence of atherosclerotic lesions. Next, the model was applied to incidence of atherosclerotic stroke in the cohort of male workers from the Mayak nuclear facility in the Southern Urals. It describes the data as well as standard epidemiological models. Based on goodness-of-fit criteria the risk factors smoking, hypertension and radiation exposure were tested for their effect on disease development. Hypertension was identified to affect disease progression mainly in the late stage of atherosclerosis. Fitting mechanistic models to incidence data allows to integrate biological evidence on disease progression into epidemiological studies. The mechanistic approach adds to an understanding of pathogenic processes, whereas standard epidemiological methods mainly explore the statistical association between risk factors and disease outcome. Due to a more comprehensive scientific foundation, risk estimates from mechanistic models can be deemed more reliable. To the best of our knowledge, such models are applied to epidemiological data on cardiovascular diseases for the first time.

Cerebrovascular Diseases in Workers at Mayak PA: The Difference in Radiation Risk between Incidence and Mortality.

A detailed analysis of cerebrovascular diseases (CeVD) for the cohort of workers at Mayak Production Association (PA) is presented. This cohort is especially suitable for the analysis of radiation induced circulatory diseases, due to the detailed medical surveillance and information on several risk factors. The risk after external, typically protracted, gamma exposure is analysed, accounting for potential additional internal alpha exposure. Three different endpoints have been investigated: incidence and mortality from all cerebrovascular diseases and incidence of stroke. Particular emphasis was given to the form of the dose-response relationship and the time dependence of the radiation induced risk. Young attained age was observed to be an important, aggravating modifier of radiation risk for incidence of CeVD and stroke. For incidence of CeVD, our analysis supports a dose response sub-linear for low doses. Finally, the excess relative risk per dose was confirmed to be significantly higher for incidence of CeVD compared to CeVD mortality and incidence of stroke. Arguments are presented for this difference to be based on a true biological effect.

Ischemic heart disease in workers at Mayak PA: latency of incidence risk after radiation exposure.

We present an updated analysis of incidence and mortality from atherosclerotic induced ischemic heart diseases in the cohort of workers at the Mayak Production Association (PA). This cohort constitutes one of the most important sources for the assessment of radiation risk. It is exceptional because it comprises information on several other risk factors. While most of the workers have been exposed to external gamma radiation, a large proportion has additionally been exposed to internal radiation from inhaled plutonium. Compared to a previous study by Azizova et al. 2012, the updated dosimetry system MWDS-2008 has been applied and methods of analysis have been revised. We extend the analysis of the significant incidence risk and observe that main detrimental effects of external radiation exposure occur after more than about 30 years. For mortality, significant risk was found in males with an excess relative risk per dose of 0.09 (95% CI: 0.02; 0.16) [Formula: see text] while risk was insignificant for females. With respect to internal radiation exposure no association to risk could be established.

Cell selection as driving force in lung and colon carcinogenesis.

Carcinogenesis is the result of mutations and subsequent clonal expansions of mutated, selectively advantageous cells. To investigate the relative contributions of mutation versus cell selection in tumorigenesis, we compared two mathematical models of carcinogenesis in two different cancer types: lung and colon. One approach is based on a population genetics model, the Wright-Fisher process, whereas the other approach is the two-stage clonal expansion model. We compared the dynamics of tumorigenesis predicted by the two models in terms of the time period until the first malignant cell appears, which will subsequently form a tumor. The mean waiting time to cancer has been calculated approximately for the evolutionary colon cancer model. Here, we derive new analytic approximations to the median waiting time for the two-stage lung cancer model and for a multistage approximation to the Wright-Fisher process. Both equations show that the waiting time to cancer is dominated by the selective advantage per mutation and the net clonal expansion rate, respectively, whereas the mutation rate has less effect. Our comparisons support the idea that the main driving force in lung and colon carcinogenesis is Darwinian cell selection.

Protective bystander effects simulated with the state-vector model.

Apoptosis induced in non-hit bystander cells is an important biological mechanism which operates after exposure to low doses of low-LET radiation. This process was implemented into a deterministic multistage model for in vitro neoplastic transformation: the State-Vector Model (SVM). The new model is tested on two data sets that show a reduction of the transformation frequency below the spontaneous level after exposure of the human hybrid cell line CGL1 to low doses of gamma-radiation. Stronger protective effects are visible in the data for delayed plating while the data for immediate plating show more of an LNT-like dose-response curve. It is shown that the model can describe both data sets. The calculation of the time-dependent numerical solution of the model also allows to obtain information about the time-dependence of the protective apoptosis-mediated process after low dose exposures. These findings are compared with experimental observations after high dose exposures.

Can promotion of initiated cells be explained by excess replacement of radiation-inactivated neighbor cells?

Recently, the observed promotion in the clonal expansion of a two-stage cancer model was attributed to a small excess replacement probability for the initiated cells. The proposed mechanism of excess replacement was evaluated for single intermediate cells surrounded by normal cells. This paper investigates this mechanism further using the same biological parameters. If the formation of clones of intermediate cells is taken into account in a quantitative analysis of the proposed mechanism, it turns out that (1) for the initial strong increase of the promotional effect with exposure, a much larger and unlikely excess replacement probability is needed, and (2) the leveling of the promotional effect for high exposures cannot be explained by multiple normal neighbors of an intermediate cell being inactivated within one cell cycle, as it had been suggested. Perhaps these discrepancies could be partly resolved by a re-scaling of the original parameters, but this should be investigated further.

Mechanistic basis for nonlinear dose-response relationships for low-dose radiation-induced stochastic effects.

The linear nonthreshold (LNT) model plays a central role in low-dose radiation risk assessment for humans. With the LNT model, any radiation exposure is assumed to increase one's risk of cancer. Based on the LNT model, others have predicted tens of thousands of deaths related to environmental exposure to radioactive material from nuclear accidents (e.g., Chernobyl) and fallout from nuclear weapons testing. Here, we introduce a mechanism-based model for low-dose, radiation-induced, stochastic effects (genomic instability, apoptosis, mutations, neoplastic transformation) that leads to a LNT relationship between the risk for neoplastic transformation and dose only in special cases. It is shown that nonlinear dose-response relationships for risk of stochastic effects (problematic nonlethal mutations, neoplastic transformation) should be expected based on known biological mechanisms. Further, for low-dose, low-dose rate, low-LET radiation, large thresholds may exist for cancer induction. We summarize previously published data demonstrating large thresholds for cancer induction. We also provide evidence for low-dose-radiation-induced, protection (assumed via apoptosis) from neoplastic transformation. We speculate based on work of others (Chung 2002) that such protection may also be induced to operate on existing cancer cells and may be amplified by apoptosis-inducing agents such as dietary isothiocyanates.

Nonlinear dose-response relationships and inducible cellular defence mechanisms.

With the inclusion of inducible radioprotective mechanisms in a radiobiological state-vector model it was possible to explain plateaus in dose-response relationships for neoplastic transformation produced by in vitro irradiation of different cell lines with low-LET irradiation at high dose rates. The current study repeated the simulation of one data set that contains a plateau at mid doses. In contrast to earlier studies, the new one did not model the repair of double-strand breaks (DSBs) located in bulk DNA (likely via non-homologous end joining) as being inducible. Repair of specific DSBs located in actively transcribed genes was assumed to occur via homologous recombination and was considered to be inducible. This reduced the number of parameters that have to be determined by fitting the model to data. In addition, all types of radical scavengers were formerly considered to be inducible by radiation. This was redefined in the current work and the effectiveness of scavengers was implemented in a refined way. The current work investigated whether these and other model adjustments lead to an improved fit of the data set.