TB PCR in BAL and EBUS-TBNA samples for the diagnosis of pulmonary and mediastinal lymph node TB: retrospective TRiBE study.

INTRODUCTION: The role of Xpert Ultra in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) and endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) samples for pulmonary and mediastinal lymph node tuberculosis (TB) remains unclear. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational service evaluation at a tertiary TB centre in a low-incidence setting. The diagnostic indices of Xpert Ultra, smear and culture (with cytology for EBUS-TBNA samples) were compared with culture positivity or a composite reference standard of clinical TB diagnosis. Trace readouts, a new category of results for Xpert Ultra indicating low bacillary load, were analysed in two ways as a true positive or true negative result. 282 BAL and 139 EBUS-TBNA samples were included in the analysis. RESULTS: BAL: sensitivity with 95% CI against culture-confirmed pulmonary TB from BAL samples for Xpert Ultra (trace as positive) was 0.91 (0.82 to 0.98), Xpert Ultra (trace as negative) was 0.76 (0.69 to 0.83), smear was 0.38 (p=0.0009) and culture was 1.00 (0.91 to 1.00). Specificities for all the tests were ≥0.99 (0.98 to 1.00). The addition of smear to Xpert Ultra did not improve the diagnostic accuracy.EBUS-TBNA: sensitivity against culture-confirmed TB from EBUS-TBNA samples for Xpert Ultra (trace as positive) was 0.71 (0.63 to 0.78), Xpert Ultra (trace as negative) was 0.59 (0.54 to 0.63), smear was 0.12 (p=0.002), culture was 1.00 (0.89 to 1.00), cytology was 0.87 (0.76 to 0.98) and rapid on-site evaluation of cytology (ROSE) was 0.92 (0.78 to 1.00). Specificities were 0.99 (0.97 to 1.00), 0.99 (0.97 to 1.00), 1.00 (0.98 to 1.00), 1.00 (0.98 to 1.00), 0.67 (0.67 to 0.68) and 0.42, respectively. CONCLUSION: Xpert Ultra had a significantly higher sensitivity compared with smear in both BAL and EBUS-TBNA samples. Xpert Ultra had a lower sensitivity compared with culture but comparable specificity with results being available within <24 hours. Trace readings in our low-incidence setting were associated with culture positivity in all BAL samples.

Modelling impacts of a salt and sugar tax on hypothetical intra-category food substitutions, BMI and environmental footprints in the UK population.

PURPOSE: Taxes on unhealthy foods can help improve population health in the United Kingdom (UK), but the health effects of food substitutions resulting from these taxes are often unclear. We investigated the potential impacts of a salt and sugar tax on hypothetical intra-category food substitutions, cost, body-mass index (BMI), and environmental footprints. METHODS: Purchase panel data from Kantar (2017) were used to determine the most popular foods high in salt or sugar within eight 'salt-intensive'/'sugar-intensive' food categories. Within food categories, the most popular lower salt (≤ 1.5 g salt/100 g product) and lower sugar (≤ 22.5 g sugar/100 g product) substitutes were also identified. Hypothetical swaps between high salt/sugar foods and lower salt/sugar substitutes were explored, focusing on changes to cost, caloric intake and BMI, and environmental impacts in the UK population. RESULTS: The suggested intra-category substitutions were largely like-for-like and did not accrue an added overall cost to consumers. The substitutions reduced calorie intake by about 200 kcal/day and lowered the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK from approximately 60-65% to about 40-45%. The proposed food substitutions led to a total reduction of -2.7Mt of greenhouse gases, ∼ -500.000 ha of land, -0.5km3 of blue water, -12km3 of scarcity weighted water, ∼ -12.000t of phosphorus, and nearly - 14.000t of sulphur dioxide over one year for the UK population due to reductions in calorie intake. CONCLUSION: Food substitutions following a tax on salt and sugar could lead to significant benefits for health and the environment, without necessarily resulting in major changes to people's expenditure on familiar salty and sugary snacks.

Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply-demand gap?

With rising demand for food and the threats posed by climate change, The Gambia faces significant challenges in ensuring sufficient and nutritious food for its population. To address these challenges, there is a need to increase domestic food production while limiting deforestation and land degradation. In this study, we modified the FABLE Calculator, a food and land-use system model, to focus on The Gambia to simulate scenarios for future food demand and increasing domestic food production. We considered the impacts of climate change on crops, the adoption of climate change adaptation techniques, as well as the potential of enhanced fertiliser use and irrigation to boost crop productivity, and assessed whether these measures would be sufficient to meet the projected increase in food demand. Our results indicate that domestic food production on existing cropland will not be sufficient to meet national food demand by 2050, leading to a significant supply-demand gap. However, investments in fertiliser availability and the development of sustainable irrigation infrastructure, coupled with climate change adaptation strategies like the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and optimised planting dates, could halve this gap. Addressing the remaining gap will require additional strategies, such as increasing imports, expanding cropland, or prioritising the production of domestic food crops over export crops. Given the critical role imports play in The Gambia's food supply, it is essential to ensure a robust flow of food imports by diversifying partners and addressing regional trade barriers. Our study highlights the urgent need for sustained investment and policy support to enhance domestic food production and food imports to secure sufficient and healthy food supplies amidst growing demand and climate change challenges. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-024-01444-1.

Mapping the evidence of novel plant-based foods: a systematic review of nutritional, health, and environmental impacts in high-income countries.

CONTEXT: Shifting from current dietary patterns to diets rich in plant-based (PB) foods and lower in animal-based foods (ABFs) is generally regarded as a suitable strategy to improve nutritional health and reduce environmental impacts. Despite the recent growth in supply of and demand for novel plant-based foods (NPBFs), a comprehensive overview is lacking. OBJECTIVES: This review provides a synthesis of available evidence, highlights challenges, and informs public health and environmental strategies for purposeful political decision-making by systematically searching, analyzing, and summarizing the available literature. DATA SOURCES: Five peer-reviewed databases and grey literature sources were rigorously searched for publications. DATA EXTRACTION: Study characteristics meeting the inclusion criteria regarding NPBF nutrient composition and health and environmental outcomes in high-income countries were extracted. DATA ANALYSIS: Fifty-seven peer-reviewed and 36 grey literature sources were identified; these were published in 2016-2022. NPBFs typically have substantially lower environmental impacts than ABFs, but the nutritional contents are complex and vary considerably across brands, product type, and main primary ingredient. In the limited evidence on the health impacts, shifts from ABFs to PB meats were associated with positive health outcomes. However, results were mixed for PB drinks, with links to micronutrient deficiencies. CONCLUSION: If carefully selected, certain NPBFs have the potential to be healthier and nutrient-rich alternatives to ABFs and typically have smaller environmental footprints. More disaggregated categorization of various types of NPBFs would be a helpful step in guiding consumers and key stakeholders to make informed decisions. To enable informed policymaking on the inclusion of NPBFs in dietary transitions as part of a wider net-zero and health strategy, future priorities should include nutritional food standards, labelling, and subdivisions or categorizations of NPBFs, as well as short- and long-term health studies evaluating dietary shifts from ABFs to NPBFs and standardized environmental impact assessments, ideally from independent funders.

Adherence to the Eatwell Guide and population and planetary health: A Rank Prize Forum report.

This report summarises a Forum conducted in June 2023 to explore the current state of the knowledge around the Eatwell Guide, which is the UK government's healthy eating tool, in relation to population and planetary health. The 1.5-day Forum highlighted the limited, albeit promising evidence linking higher adherence to the Eatwell Guide with favourable health outcomes, including reduced overall mortality risk, lower abdominal obesity in post-menopausal women and improved cardiometabolic health markers. Similarly, evidence was presented to suggest that higher adherence to the Eatwell Guide is associated with reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Presentations were given around cultural adaptations of the Eatwell Guide, including African Heritage and South Asian versions, which are designed to increase the acceptability and uptake of the Eatwell Guide in these communities in the United Kingdom. Presentations highlighted ongoing work relevant to the applications of the Eatwell Guide in randomised controlled trials and public health settings, including the development of a screening tool to quantify Eatwell Guide adherence. The Forum ended with a World Café-style event, in which the strengths and limitations of the Eatwell Guide were discussed, and directions for future research were identified. This Forum report serves as a primer on the current state of the knowledge on the Eatwell Guide and population and planetary health and will be of interest to researchers, healthcare professionals and public health officials.

Socio-economic and food system drivers of nutrition and health transitions in The Gambia from 1990 to 2017.

In common with many nations undergoing a nutrition transition, micronutrient deficiencies, undernutrition and overnutrition coexist in The Gambia. Addressing these challenges simultaneously would require transformational changes in the country's food system. However, the evidence base that would enable informed decision-making in the Gambian food system has been scant, despite several sources of routinely-collected data being available. This descriptive study brings together data from four open-access global databases on food supply, political, economic, and demographic variables, and nutrition and health between 1990 and 2017 to study potential leverage points for improvement in the food system. It compares trends in food supply and nutritional outcomes in The Gambia against regional and global averages, and identifies potential drivers taken from a food systems framework. The data show that, over the past three decades, total energy supply has increased, and obesity is rising quickly, but iron deficiency persists in a proportion of the population. Overall diet composition is poor, with lower availability of fruit and vegetables and higher supply of sugar and oils compared to regional and global averages. Domestic production is low for most food groups and so a high dependence on imports from other countries bridges the gap in terms of energy supply. Measures of economic development, particularly GDP, were positively related with supply of cereals and animal source foods over time, but no such relationship was observed with fruit and vegetable supply. Food system policy to improve nutrition and health outcomes in The Gambia needs to focus on improving the diversity of food supply - especially fruit and vegetables - and maximizing national domestic production to reduce reliance on food imports. The use of open-source global datasets can be feasible in exploring food system characteristics and trends at the national level and could be applied in other contexts.

Can cereal-legume intercrop systems contribute to household nutrition in semi-arid environments: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Introduction: Intercropping cereals with legumes can intensify rainfed cereal monocropping for improved household food and nutritional security. However, there is scant literature confirming the associated nutritional benefits. Methodology: A systematic review and meta-analysis of nutritional water productivity (NWP) and nutrient contribution (NC) of selected cereal-legume intercrop systems was conducted through literature searches in Scopus, Web of Science and ScienceDirect databases. After the assessment, only nine articles written in English that were field experiments comprising grain cereal and legume intercrop systems were retained. Using the R statistical software (version 3.6.0), paired t-tests were used to determine if differences existed between the intercrop system and the corresponding cereal monocrop for yield (Y), water productivity (WP), NC, and NWP. Results: The intercropped cereal or legume yield was 10 to 35% lower than that for the corresponding monocrop system. In most instances, intercropping cereals with legumes improved NY, NWP, and NC due to their added nutrients. Substantial improvements were observed for calcium (Ca), where NY, NWP, and NC improved by 658, 82, and 256%, respectively. Discussion: Results showed that cereal-legume intercrop systems could improve nutrient yield in water-limited environments. Promoting cereal- legume intercrops that feature nutrient-dense legume component crops could contribute toward addressing the SDGs of Zero Hunger (SDG 3), Good Health and Well-3 (SDG 2) and Responsible consumption and production (SDG 12).

Growing health: global linkages between patterns of food supply, sustainability, and vulnerability to climate change.

Global food systems are developing rapidly, and have resulted in a large burden of disease and a high proportion of environmental resource use. We combined global data sources on food supply and trade, environmental footprints, burdens of disease, and vulnerability to climate change to explore patterns from 1990 to 2017. Four distinct patterns of food supply (animal sources and sugar, vegetables and nuts, starchy roots and fruits, and seafood and oils) were matched to health and environmental risks. The animal sources and sugar pattern was found to have the greatest environmental footprint and to be associated with a greater burden of chronic disease than any other pattern, although it was also associated with lower undernutrition. This pattern is globally predominant, but has begun to decrease in higher income countries. Countries where this pattern is predominant are generally among the least susceptible to climate change, whereas more susceptible countries tend to have more sustainable patterns of food supply. More countries that are susceptible to climate change are increasingly exporting a larger proportion than before of their cereals, fruit, and vegetables globally, which will lead to increased risks in global food security. To increase resilience to future shocks, dietary change towards more sustainable patterns should accelerate in high-income countries, and the food systems of the most susceptible countries should be protected.

Adherence to EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations for health and sustainability in the Gambia.

Facilitating dietary change is pivotal to improving population health, increasing food system resilience, and minimizing adverse impacts on the environment, but assessment of the current 'status-quo' and identification of bottlenecks for improvement has been lacking to date. We assessed deviation of the Gambian diet from the EAT-Lancet guidelines for healthy and sustainable diets and identified leverage points to improve nutritional and planetary health. We analysed the 2015/16 Gambian Integrated Household Survey dataset comprising food consumption data from 12 713 households. Consumption of different food groups was compared against the EAT-Lancet reference diet targets to assess deviation from the guidelines. We computed a 'sustainable and healthy diet index (SHDI)' based on deviation of different food groups from the EAT-Lancet recommendations and modelled the socio-economic and geographic determinants of households that achieved higher scores on this index, using multivariable mixed effects regression. The average Gambian diet had very low adherence to EAT-Lancet recommendations. The diet was dominated by refined grains and added sugars which exceeded the recommendations. SHDI scores for nutritionally important food groups such as fruits, vegetables, nuts, dairy, poultry, and beef and lamb were low. Household characteristics associated with higher SHDI scores included: being a female-headed household, having a relatively small household size, having a schooled head of the household, having a high wealth index, and residing in an urban settlement. Furthermore, diets reported in the dry season and households with high crop production diversity showed increased adherence to the targets. While average Gambian diets include lower amounts of food groups with harmful environmental footprint, they are also inadequate in healthy food groups and are high in sugar. There are opportunities to improve diets without increasing their environmental footprint by focusing on the substitution of refined grains by wholegrains, reducing sugar and increasing fruit and vegetables consumption.

Meeting report: plant-rich dietary patterns and health.

Dietary patterns (DP) rich in plant foods are associated with improved health and reduced non-communicable disease risk. In October 2021, the Nutrition Society hosted a member-led conference, held online over 2 half days, exploring the latest research findings examining plant-rich DP and health. The aim of the present paper is to summarise the content of the conference and synopses of the individual speaker presentations are included. Topics included epidemiological analysis of plant-rich DP and health outcomes, the effects of dietary interventions which have increased fruit and vegetable (FV) intake on a range of health outcomes, how adherence to plant-rich DP is assessed, the use of biomarkers to assess FV intake and a consideration of how modifying behaviour towards increased FV intake could impact environmental outcomes, planetary health and food systems. In conclusion, although there are still considerable uncertainties which require further research, which were considered as part of the conference and are summarised in this review, adopting a plant-rich DP at a population level could have a considerable impact on diet and health outcomes, as well as planetary health.

Changes in Climate Vulnerability and Projected Water Stress of The Gambia's Food Supply Between 1988 and 2018: Trading With Trade-Offs.

Background: The coexistence of under- and overnutrition is of increasing public health concern in The Gambia. Fruits, vegetables and pulses are essential to healthy and sustainable diets, preventing micronutrient deficiencies and non-communicable diseases, while cereals significantly contribute to energy intake. However, environmental changes are predicted to intensify, reducing future yields of these crops if agricultural productivity and resilience are not improved. The Gambia is highly climate-vulnerable and import-dependent, but the extent of its reliance on other climate-vulnerable countries for its supply of nutritionally important crops is currently unknown. Methods: We used United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization data, with novel origin-tracing algorithms applied, to analyse The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses between 1988 and 2018. The climate vulnerability of countries was assessed using Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) index scores, and projected water stress (2040) assessed using World Resources Institute (WRI) scores. Multilevel generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to identify changes in the overall climate vulnerability and projected water stress of supply. Results: Between 1988 and 2018, The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses diversified, with the proportion domestically produced falling (Cereals: 61.4%-27.7%; Fruits: 93.0%-55.7%; Vegetables: 24.6%-16.3%; Pulses: 100.0%-76.0%). The weighted-average ND-GAIN scores improved (indicating less climate vulnerability) for supply of all crops except cereals, but the weighted-average WRI score for supply deteriorated (indicating increased projected water stress) for all crops except vegetables. When just considering imports, weighted-average ND-GAIN scores deteriorated for fruits and cereals while showing no significant change for other food groups, and the WRI score deteriorated for cereals only. Conclusions: Despite some notable improvements in the environmental vulnerability of The Gambia's supply of nutritionally important crops (particularly vegetables), considerable, and in some cases increasing, proportions of their supply are produced in countries that are vulnerable to climate change and future water stress. This may have implications for the availability, affordability, and hence consumption of these crops in The Gambia, ultimately exacerbating existing nutritional challenges. Exploring the options to strengthen supply resilience-such as altering trade patterns, agricultural techniques and diets-should be prioritized.

Grassroots and Youth-Led Climate Solutions From The Gambia.

Climate change and environmental degradation are among the greatest threats to human health. Youth campaigners have very effectively focused global attention on the crisis, however children from the Global South are often under-represented (sometimes deliberately) in the dialogue. In The Gambia, West Africa, the impacts of climate change are already being directly experienced by the population, and this will worsen in coming years. There is strong government and community commitment to adapt to these challenges, as evidenced by The Gambia currently being the only country on target to meet the Paris agreement according to the Nationally Determined Contributions, but again children's voices are often missing-while their views could yield valuable additional insights. Here, we describe a "Climate Change Solutions Festival" that targeted and engaged school children from 13 to 18 years, and is to our knowledge, the first peer-to-peer (and student-to-professional) learning festival on climate change solutions for students in The Gambia. The event gave a unique insight into perceived climate change problems and scalable, affordable and sometimes very creative solutions that could be implemented in the local area. Logistical and practical methods for running the festival are shared, as well as details on all solutions demonstrated in enough detail to be duplicated. We also performed a narrative review of the most popular stalls to explore the scientific basis of these solutions and discuss these in a global context. Overall, we find extremely strong, grass-roots and student engagement in the Gambia and clear evidence of learning about climate change and the impacts of environmental degradation more broadly. Nevertheless, we reflect that in order to enact these proposed local solutions further steps to evaluate acceptability of adoption, feasibility within the communities, cost-benefit analyses and ability to scale solutions are needed. This could be the focus of future experiential learning activities with students and partnering stakeholders.

Dietary and agricultural adaptations to drought among smallholder farmers in South Africa: A qualitative study.

Building resilience to environmental change is an integral part of long-term climate adaptation planning and local policy. There is an increased understanding of the impact of climate change on global crop production however, little focus has been given to local adaptation pathways and rural smallholder community responses, especially regarding food security. It is becoming increasingly evident that local level decision-making plays a vital role in reducing vulnerability to environmental change. This research aimed to qualitatively investigate coping and adaptive strategies adopted by smallholder farming households to respond to the impacts of drought in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Focus group discussions (n = 7) consisting of 5-9 participants and individual interviews (n = 9) using pre-tested topic guides, involving a total of 57 adults were conducted in rural areas of drought-affected districts: Msinga, Richmond and Umbumbulu of KwaZulu-Natal, in July 2018. The data were analysed using thematic analysis in NVivo 12. Thematic analysis identified three principal themes: 1. Perceived effects of droughts on the local food system and diets; 2. Current coping strategies; and 3. Enablers for successful adaptation. All sites reported a change in food consumption habits, with the majority perceiving drought to be the main driver behind a shift from vegetable-based to starch-based diets and decreased animal source food consumption. Only short-term coping strategies were implemented across the study sites. However, knowledge of long-term adaptation strategies existed but was unattainable to most respondents. Recommendations of perceived context-specific long-term adaptation strategies that could be used at a local scale were communicated by the respondents. However, they would need external help to actualize them. A need exists to support smallholder communities' short-term response methods to drought to achieve more holistic resilience and successful adaptation. Short-term adaptation strategies, if implemented alone, often have significant trade-offs with longer-term adaptation and building resilience. This study highlights the need for targeted, contextualised policy solutions to improve smallholder productivity during drought through a strategic combination of both short- and longer-term adaptation measures, i.e. short-term adaptation should be guided by a long-term adaptation strategy. Proper planning, including the use of climate scenarios combined with information on nutritional status, is needed to develop context-specific and transformative adaptation strategies. These strategies should aim to strengthen resilience at a local level and should be included as policy recommendations.

The role of plant-based alternative foods in sustainable and healthy food systems: Consumption trends in the UK.

A global transformation towards sustainable food systems is crucial for delivering on climate change mitigation targets worldwide. In high- and middle-income settings, plant-based meat and dairy alternatives present potential substitutes for animal sourced foods, and a pathway to transition to more sustainable diets. We examined plant-based alternative foods (PBAF) consumption trends in the UK by analysing repeated cross-sectional food consumption data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008-2019. Dietary data for 15,655 individuals aged 1.5 years and over were analysed to assess aggregate change in intake of PBAF and six other food groups that play a role in transformative dietary change. Characteristics associated with consumption of PBAF were explored using logistic regression, and consumption patterns in high and low meat consumers were explored by examining intake of potential animal product substitute food groups. The proportion of individuals reporting consumption of any PBAFs increased from 6.7% in 2008-2011, to 13.1% in 2017-2019 (p < 0.01). Compared to 2008-2011 PBAF consumption rose by 115% in 2017-2019 (p < 0.01). Females were 46% more likely than males to report consumption of PBAF (p < 0.01). Millennials (age 24-39 years) were the most likely generation to report PBAF consumption (p < 0.01 compared to generation Z (age 11-23 years) and traditionalists (age 75+ years)), as were individuals of the highest income tertile (p < 0.01). Among "low meat consumers", PBAF consumption was on average higher than "high meat consumers" (18.6 g versus 4.8 g PBAF per day, p < 0.01). Our results support the hypothesis of a pivotal role of PBAF in the transition towards sustainable food systems in the UK, by demonstrating they are becoming increasingly popular among UK consumers. This highlights the urgent need to assess in detail the environmental and health impacts of large scale and population-wide consumption of PBAF in comparison to their animal-based equivalents.

Potential for positive biodiversity outcomes under diet-driven land use change in Great Britain.

Background: A shift toward human diets that include more fruit and vegetables, and less meat is a potential pathway to improve public health and reduce food system-related greenhouse gas emissions. Associated changes in land use could include conversion of grazing land into horticulture, which makes more efficient use of land per unit of dietary energy and frees-up land for other uses. Methods: Here we use Great Britain as a case study to estimate potential impacts on biodiversity from converting grazing land to a mixture of horticulture and natural land covers by fitting species distribution models for over 800 species, including pollinating insects and species of conservation priority. Results: Across several land use scenarios that consider the current ratio of domestic fruit and vegetable production to imports, our statistical models suggest a potential for gains to biodiversity, including a tendency for more species to gain habitable area than to lose habitable area. Moreover, the models suggest that climate change impacts on biodiversity could be mitigated to a degree by land use changes associated with dietary shifts. Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that options exist for changing agricultural land uses in a way that can generate win-win-win outcomes for biodiversity, adaptation to climate change and public health.

The effects on public health of climate change adaptation responses: a systematic review of evidence from low- and middle-income countries.

Climate change adaptation responses are being developed and delivered in many parts of the world in the absence of detailed knowledge of their effects on public health. Here we present the results of a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature reporting the effects on health of climate change adaptation responses in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The review used the 'Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative' database (comprising 1682 publications related to climate change adaptation responses) that was constructed through systematic literature searches in Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar (2013-2020). For this study, further screening was performed to identify studies from LMICs reporting the effects on human health of climate change adaptation responses. Studies were categorised by study design and data were extracted on geographic region, population under investigation, type of adaptation response and reported health effects. The review identified 99 studies (1117 reported outcomes), reporting evidence from 66 LMICs. Only two studies were ex ante formal evaluations of climate change adaptation responses. Papers reported adaptation responses related to flooding, rainfall, drought and extreme heat, predominantly through behaviour change, and infrastructural and technological improvements. Reported (direct and intermediate) health outcomes included reduction in infectious disease incidence, improved access to water/sanitation and improved food security. All-cause mortality was rarely reported, and no papers were identified reporting on maternal and child health. Reported maladaptations were predominantly related to widening of inequalities and unforeseen co-harms. Reporting and publication-bias seems likely with only 3.5% of all 1117 health outcomes reported to be negative. Our review identified some evidence that climate change adaptation responses may have benefits for human health but the overall paucity of evidence is concerning and represents a major missed opportunity for learning. There is an urgent need for greater focus on the funding, design, evaluation and standardised reporting of the effects on health of climate change adaptation responses to enable evidence-based policy action.

Systematic mapping of global research on climate and health: a machine learning review.

BACKGROUND: The global literature on the links between climate change and human health is large, increasing exponentially, and it is no longer feasible to collate and synthesise using traditional systematic evidence mapping approaches. We aimed to use machine learning methods to systematically synthesise an evidence base on climate change and human health. METHODS: We used supervised machine learning and other natural language processing methods (topic modelling and geoparsing) to systematically identify and map the scientific literature on climate change and health published between Jan 1, 2013, and April 9, 2020. Only literature indexed in English were included. We searched Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus, and PubMed using title, abstract, and keywords only. We searched for papers including both a health component and an explicit mention of either climate change, climate variability, or climate change-relevant weather phenomena. We classified relevant publications according to the fields of climate research, climate drivers, health impact, date, and geography. We used supervised and unsupervised machine learning to identify and classify relevant articles in the field of climate and health, with outputs including evidence heat maps, geographical maps, and narrative synthesis of trends in climate health-related publications. We included empirical literature of any study design that reported on health pathways associated with climate impacts, mitigation, or adaptation. FINDINGS: We predict that there are 15 963 studies in the field of climate and health published between 2013 and 2019. Climate health literature is dominated by impact studies, with mitigation and adaptation responses and their co-benefits and co-risks remaining niche topics. Air quality and heat stress are the most frequently studied exposures, with all-cause mortality and infectious disease incidence being the most frequently studied health outcomes. Seasonality, extreme weather events, heat, and weather variability are the most frequently studied climate-related hazards. We found major gaps in evidence on climate health research for mental health, undernutrition, and maternal and child health. Geographically, the evidence base is dominated by studies from high-income countries and China, with scant evidence from low-income counties, which often suffer most from the health consequences of climate change. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show the importance and feasibility of using automated machine learning to comprehensively map the science on climate change and human health in the age of big literature. These can provide key inputs into global climate and health assessments. The scant evidence on climate change response options is concerning and could significantly hamper the design of evidence-based pathways to reduce the effects on health of climate change. In the post-2015 Paris Agreement era of climate solutions, we believe much more attention should be given to climate adaptation and mitigation options and their effects on human health. FUNDING: Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

Characteristics of Distinct Dietary Patterns in Rural Bangladesh: Nutrient Adequacy and Vulnerability to Shocks.

Food security in Bangladesh has improved in recent years, but the country is now facing a double burden of malnutrition while also being highly vulnerable to climate change. Little is known about how this may affect food supply to different sectors of the population. To inform this, we used a national dietary survey of 800 rural households to define dietary patterns using latent class analysis. Nutrient adequacy of dietary patterns and their potential vulnerability to climate shocks (based on diversity of calorie sources) were assessed. We fitted mixed effects logistic regression models to identify factors associated with dietary patterns. Four dietary patterns were identified: rice and low diversity; wheat and high diversity; pulses and vegetables; meat and fish. The wheat and high diversity and meat and fish patterns tended to be consumed by households with higher levels of wealth and education, while the rice and low diversity pattern was consumed by households with lower levels of wealth and education. The pulses and vegetables pattern was consumed by households of intermediate socio-economic status. While energy intake was high, fat and protein intake were suboptimal for all patterns except for the wheat and high diversity pattern. All patterns had fruit and vegetable intake below the WHO recommendation. The wheat and high diversity pattern was least vulnerable to shocks, while the rice and low diversity pattern was the most vulnerable, relying mainly on single cereal staples. The diets showed "double vulnerability" where the nutrient inadequate patterns were also those most vulnerable to shocks.