Past and future impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem services in Austria.

Environmental and socio-economic developments induce land-use changes with potentially negative impacts on human well-being. To counteract undesired developments, a profound understanding of the complex relationships between drivers, land use, and ecosystem services is needed. Yet, national studies examining extended time periods are still rare. Based on the Special Report on land use, land management and climate change by the Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), we use the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to (1) identify the main drivers of land-use change, (2) describe past and future land-use changes in Austria between 1950 and 2100, (3) report related impacts on ecosystem services, and (4) discuss management responses. Our findings indicate that socio-economic drivers (e.g., economic growth, political systems, and technological developments) have influenced past land-use changes the most. The intensification of agricultural land use and urban sprawl have primarily led to declining ecosystem services in the lowlands. In mountain regions, the abandonment of mountain grassland has prompted a shift from provisioning to regulating services. However, simulations indicate that accelerating climate change will surpass socio-economic drivers in significance towards the end of this century, particularly in intensively used agricultural areas. Although climate change-induced impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain, it can be expected that the range of land-use management options will be restricted in the future. Consequently, policymaking should prioritize the development of integrated land-use planning to safeguard ecosystem services, accounting for future environmental and socio-economic uncertainties.

Predicting spring migration of two European amphibian species with plant phenology using citizen science data.

Habitat fragmentation is one of the drivers for amphibian population declines globally. Especially in industrialized countries roads disrupt the seasonal migration of amphibians between hibernation and reproduction sites, often ending in roadkills. Thus, a timely installing of temporary mitigation measures is important for amphibian conservation. We wanted to find out if plant phenology can be a proxy in advance to determine the start of amphibian migration, since both phenomena are triggered by temperature. We analysed data of 3751 amphibian and 7818 plant phenology observations from citizen science projects in Austria between 2000 and 2018. Using robust regression modelling we compared the migration of common toads (Bufo bufo) and common frogs (Rana temporaria) with the phenology of five tree, one shrub, and one herb species. Results showed close associations between the migration of common frogs and phenological phases of European larch, goat willow and apricot. Models based on goat willow predict migration of common frog to occur 21 days after flowering, when flowering was observed on 60th day of year; apricot based models predict migration to occur 1 day after flowering, observed on the 75th day of year. Common toads showed weaker associations with plant phenology than common frogs. Our findings suggest that plant phenology can be used to determine the onset of temporary mitigation measures for certain amphibian species to prevent roadkills.

Climate change fingerprints in recent European plant phenology.

A paper published in Global Change Biology in 2006 revealed that phenological responses in 1971-2000 matched the warming pattern in Europe, but a lack of chilling and adaptation in farming may have reversed these findings. Therefore, for 1951-2018 in a corresponding data set, we determined changes as linear trends and analysed their variation by plant traits/groups, across season and time as well as their attribution to warming following IPCC methodology. Although spring and summer phases in wild plants advanced less (maximum advances in 1978-2007), more (~90%) and more significant (~60%) negative trends were present, being stronger in early spring, at higher elevations, but smaller for nonwoody insect-pollinated species. These trends were strongly attributable to winter and spring warming. Findings for crop spring phases were similar, but were less pronounced. There were clearer and attributable signs for a delayed senescence in response to winter and spring warming. These changes resulted in a longer growing season, but a constant generative period in wild plants and a shortened one in agricultural crops. Phenology determined by farmers' decisions differed noticeably from the purely climatic driven phases with smaller percentages of advancing (~75%) trends, but farmers' spring activities were the only group with reinforced advancement, suggesting adaptation. Trends in farmers' spring and summer activities were very likely/likely associated with the warming pattern. In contrast, the advance in autumn farming phases was significantly associated with below average summer warming. Thus, under ongoing climate change with decreased chilling the advancing phenology in spring and summer is still attributable to warming; even the farmers' activities in these seasons mirror, to a lesser extent, the warming. Our findings point to adaptation to climate change in agriculture and reveal diverse implications for terrestrial ecosystems; the strong attribution supports the necessary mediation of warming impacts to the general public.

Pan European Phenological database (PEP725): a single point of access for European data.

The Pan European Phenology (PEP) project is a European infrastructure to promote and facilitate phenological research, education, and environmental monitoring. The main objective is to maintain and develop a Pan European Phenological database (PEP725) with an open, unrestricted data access for science and education. PEP725 is the successor of the database developed through the COST action 725 "Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications" working as a single access point for European-wide plant phenological data. So far, 32 European meteorological services and project partners from across Europe have joined and supplied data collected by volunteers from 1868 to the present for the PEP725 database. Most of the partners actively provide data on a regular basis. The database presently holds almost 12 million records, about 46 growing stages and 265 plant species (including cultivars), and can be accessed via http://www.pep725.eu/ . Users of the PEP725 database have studied a diversity of topics ranging from climate change impact, plant physiological question, phenological modeling, and remote sensing of vegetation to ecosystem productivity.

Deuterium excess in precipitation of Alpine regions - moisture recycling.

The paper evaluates long-term seasonal variations of the deuterium excess (d-excess = delta(2)H - 8. delta(18)O) in precipitation of stations located north and south of the main ridge of the Austrian Alps. It demonstrates that sub-cloud evaporation during precipitation and continental moisture recycling are local, respectively, regional processes controlling these variations. In general, sub-cloud evaporation decreases and moisture recycling increases the d-excess. Therefore, evaluation of d-excess variations in terms of moisture recycling, the main aim of this paper, includes determination of the effect of sub-cloud evaporation. Since sub-cloud evaporation is governed by saturation deficit and distance between cloud base and the ground, its effect on the d-excess is expected to be lower at mountain than at lowland/valley stations. To determine quantitatively this difference, we examined long-term seasonal d-excess variations measured at three selected mountain and adjoining valley stations. The altitude differences between mountain and valley stations ranged from 470 to 1665 m. Adapting the 'falling water drop' model by Stewart [J. Geophys. Res., 80(9), 1133-1146 (1975).], we estimated that the long-term average of sub-cloud evaporation at the selected mountain stations (altitudes between about 1600 and 2250 m.a.s.l.) is less than 1 % of the precipitation and causes a decrease of the d-excess of less than 2 per thousand. For the selected valley stations, the corresponding evaporated fraction is at maximum 7 % and the difference in d-excess ranges up to 8 per thousand. The estimated d-excess differences have been used to correct the measured long-term d-excess values at the selected stations. Finally, the corresponding fraction of water vapour has been estimated that recycled by evaporation of surface water including soil water from the ground. For the two mountain stations Patscherkofel and Feuerkogel, which are located north of the main ridge of the Alps, the maximum seasonal change of the corrected d-excess (July/August) has been estimated to be between 5 and 6 per thousand, and the corresponding recycled fraction between 2.5-3 % of the local precipitation. It has been found that the estimated recycled fractions are in good agreement with values derived from other approaches.