A single polyploidization event at the origin of the tetraploid genome of Coffea arabica is responsible for the extremely low genetic variation in wild and cultivated germplasm.

The genome of the allotetraploid species Coffea arabica L. was sequenced to assemble independently the two component subgenomes (putatively deriving from C. canephora and C. eugenioides) and to perform a genome-wide analysis of the genetic diversity in cultivated coffee germplasm and in wild populations growing in the center of origin of the species. We assembled a total length of 1.536 Gbp, 444 Mb and 527 Mb of which were assigned to the canephora and eugenioides subgenomes, respectively, and predicted 46,562 gene models, 21,254 and 22,888 of which were assigned to the canephora and to the eugeniodes subgenome, respectively. Through a genome-wide SNP genotyping of 736 C. arabica accessions, we analyzed the genetic diversity in the species and its relationship with geographic distribution and historical records. We observed a weak population structure due to low-frequency derived alleles and highly negative values of Taijma's D, suggesting a recent and severe bottleneck, most likely resulting from a single event of polyploidization, not only for the cultivated germplasm but also for the entire species. This conclusion is strongly supported by forward simulations of mutation accumulation. However, PCA revealed a cline of genetic diversity reflecting a west-to-east geographical distribution from the center of origin in East Africa to the Arabian Peninsula. The extremely low levels of variation observed in the species, as a consequence of the polyploidization event, make the exploitation of diversity within the species for breeding purposes less interesting than in most crop species and stress the need for introgression of new variability from the diploid progenitors.

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.