Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative.

Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts of critical ecosystem services requires a process that engages scientists and decision-makers. Interdisciplinary linkages are necessary because of the climate and societal controls on ecosystems, the feedbacks involving social change, and the decision-making relevance of forecasts.

Limited carbon storage in soil and litter of experimental forest plots under increased atmospheric CO2.

The current rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is thought to be mitigated in part by carbon sequestration within forest ecosystems, where carbon can be stored in vegetation or soils. The storage of carbon in soils is determined by the fraction that is sequestered in persistent organic materials, such as humus. In experimental forest plots of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) exposed to high CO2 concentrations, nearly half of the carbon uptake is allocated to short-lived tissues, largely foliage. These tissues fall to the ground and decompose, normally contributing only a small portion of their carbon content to refractory soil humic materials. Such findings call into question the role of soils as long-term carbon sinks, and show the need for a better understanding of carbon cycling in forest soils. Here we report a significant accumulation of carbon in the litter layer of experimental forest plots after three years of growth at increased CO2 concentrations (565 microl l(-1)). But fast turnover times of organic carbon in the litter layer (of about three years) appear to constrain the potential size of this carbon sink. Given the observation that carbon accumulation in the deeper mineral soil layers was absent, we suggest that significant, long-term net carbon sequestration in forest soils is unlikely.

Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change.

During the next 50 years, which is likely to be the final period of rapid agricultural expansion, demand for food by a wealthier and 50% larger global population will be a major driver of global environmental change. Should past dependences of the global environmental impacts of agriculture on human population and consumption continue, 10(9) hectares of natural ecosystems would be converted to agriculture by 2050. This would be accompanied by 2.4- to 2.7-fold increases in nitrogen- and phosphorus-driven eutrophication of terrestrial, freshwater, and near-shore marine ecosystems, and comparable increases in pesticide use. This eutrophication and habitat destruction would cause unprecedented ecosystem simplification, loss of ecosystem services, and species extinctions. Significant scientific advances and regulatory, technological, and policy changes are needed to control the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion.

Compensatory responses of CO2 exchange and biomass allocation and their effects on the relative growth rate of ponderosa pine in different CO2 and temperature regimes.

Increases in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide may have a fertilizing effect on plant growth by increasing photosynthetic rates and therefore may offset potential growth decreases caused by the stress associated with higher temperatures and lower precipitation. However, plant growth is determined both by rates of net photosynthesis and by proportional allocation of fixed carbon to autotrophic tissue and heterotrophic tissue. Although CO2 fertilization may enhance growth by increasing leaf-level assimilation rates, reallocation of biomass from leaves to stems and roots in response to higher concentrations of CO2 and higher temperatures may reduce whole-plant assimilation and offset photosynthetic gains. We measured growth parameters, photosynthesis, respiration, and biomass allocation of Pinus ponderosa seedlings grown for 2 months in 2×2 factorial treatments of 350 or 650µ bar CO2 and 10/25° C or 15/30° C night/day temperatures. After 1 month in treatment conditions, total seedling biomass was higher in elevated CO2, and temperature significantly enhanced the positive CO2 effect. However, after 2 months the effect of CO2 on total biomass decreased and relative growth rates did not differ among CO2 and temperature treatments over the 2-month growth period even though photosynthetic rates increased ≈7% in high CO2 treatments and decreased ≈10% in high temperature treatments. Additionally, CO2 enhancement decreased root respiration and high temperatures increased shoot respiration. Based on CO2 exchange rates, CO2 fertilization should have increased relative growth rates (RGR) and high temperatures should have decreased RGR. Higher photosynthetic rates caused by CO2 fertilization appear to have been mitigated during the second month of exposure to treatment conditions by a ≈3% decrease in allocation of biomass to leaves and a ≈9% increase in root:shoot ratio. It was not clear why diminished photosynthetic rates and increased respiration rates at high temperatures did not result in lower RGR. Significant diametrical and potentially compensatory responses of CO2 exchange and biomass allocation and the lack of differences in RGR of ponderosa pine after 2 months of exposure of high CO2 indicate that the effects of CO2 fertilization and temperature on whole-plant growth are determined by complex shifts in biomass allocation and gas exchange that may, for some species, maintain constant growth rates as climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations change. These complex responses must be considered together to predict plant growth reactions to global atmospheric change, and the potential of forest ecosystems to sequester larger amounts of carbon in the future.

Biological feedbacks in global desertification.

Studies of ecosystem processes on the Jornada Experimental Range in southern New Mexico suggest that longterm grazing of semiarid grasslands leads to an increase in the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of water, nitrogen, and other soil resources. Heterogeneity of soil resources promotes invasion by desert shrubs, which leads to a further localization of soil resources under shrub canopies. In the barren area between shrubs, soil fertility is lost by erosion and gaseous emissions. This positive feedback leads to the desertification of formerly productive land in southern New Mexico and in other regions, such as the Sahel. Future desertification is likely to be exacerbated by global climate warming and to cause significant changes in global biogeochemical cycles.

Effects of irradiance on growth, photosynthesis, and water use efficiency of seedlings of the chaparral shrub, Ceanothus megacarpus.

The effects of irradiance during growth on biomass allocation, growth rates, leaf chlorophyll and protein contents, and on gas exchange responses to irradiance and CO2 partial pressures of the evergreen, sclerophyllous, chaparral shrub, Ceanothus megacarpus were determined. Plants were grown at 4 irradiances for the growth experiments, 8, 17, 25, 41 nE cm-2 sec-1, and at 2 irradiances, 9 and 50 nE cm-2 sec-1, for the other comparisons.At higher irradiances root/shoot ratios were somewhat greater and specific leaf weights were much greater, while leaf area ratios were much lower and leaf weight ratios were slightly lower than at lower irradiances. Relative growth rates increased with increasing irradiance up to 25 nE cm-2 sec-1 and then leveled off, while unit leaf area rates increased steeply and unit leaf weight rates increased more gradually up to the highest growth irradiance.Leaves grown at 9 nE cm-2 sec-1 had less total chlorophyll per unit leaf area and more per unit leaf weight than those grown at 50 nE cm-2 sec-1. In a reverse of what is commonly found, low irradiance grown leaves had significantly higher chlorophyll a/b than high irradiance grown leaves. High irradiance grown leaves had much more total soluble protein per unit leaf area and per unit dry weight, and they had much higher soluble protein/chlorophyll than low irradiance grown leaves.High irradiance grown leaves had higher rates of respiration in very dim light, required higher irradiances for photosynthetic saturation and had higher irradiance saturated rates of photosynthesis than low irradiance grown leaves. CO2 compensation irradiances for leaves of both treatments were very low, <5 nE cm-2 sec-1. Leaves grown under low and those grown under high irradiances reached 95% of their saturated photosynthetic rates at 65 and 85 nE cm-2 sec-1, respectively. Irradiance saturated rates of photosynthesis were high compared to other chaparral shrubs, 1.3 for low and 1.9 nmol CO2 cm-2 sec-1 for high irradiance grown leaves. A very unusual finding was that leaf conductances to H2O were significantly lower in the high irradiance grown leaves than in the low irradiance grown leaves. This, plus the differences in photosynthetic rates, resulted in higher water use efficiencies by the high irradiance grown leaves. High irradiance grown leaves had higher rates of photosynthesis at any particular intercellular CO2 partial pressure and also responded more steeply to increasing CO2 partial pressure than did low irradiance grown leaves. Leaves from both treatments showed reduced photosynthetic capability after being subjected to low CO2 partial pressures (≃100 µbars) under high irradiances. This treatment was more detrimental to leaves grown under low irradiances.The ecological implications of these findings are discussed in terms of chaparral shrub community structure. We suggest that light availability may be an important determinant of chaparral community structure through its effects on water use efficiencies rather than on net carbon gain.