A Large Ensemble Global Dataset for Climate Impact Assessments.

We present a self-consistent, large ensemble, high-resolution global dataset of long-term future climate, which accounts for the uncertainty in climate system response to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and in geographical patterns of climate change. The dataset is developed by applying an integrated spatial disaggregation (SD) - bias-correction (BC) method to climate projections from the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Four emission scenarios are considered that represent energy and environmental policies and commitments of potential future pathways, namely, Reference, Paris Forever, Paris 2 °C and Paris 1.5 °C. The dataset contains nine key meteorological variables on a monthly scale from 2021 to 2100 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x 0.5°, including precipitation, air temperature (mean, minimum and maximum), near-surface wind speed, shortwave and longwave radiation, specific humidity, and relative humidity. We demonstrate the dataset's ability to represent climate-change responses across various regions of the globe. This dataset can be used to support regional-scale climate-related impact assessments of risk across different applications that include hydropower, water resources, ecosystem, agriculture, and sustainable development.

Trends, events and potential sources of Xe-detections in the German radioxenon network.

The measurement of radioxenons (133Xe, 131mXe, 133mXe, 135Xe) in the atmosphere is a keystone for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). At the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz, BfS) activity concentrations of radioactive noble gases at several sites in Germany have been measured for more than 5 decades, initially to monitor nuclear facilities and since the mid-1990s also to support the development of measurement and monitoring systems and procedures for verification of the CTBT. Average 133Xe activity concentration in air measured daily at station RN33 of the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the CTBTO on Mt Schauinsland has decreased since 2008. Due to the decreasing radioxenon background in the atmosphere, laboratory measurements with less sensitive proportional counters developed in-house are increasingly replaced by an isotope specific ß-γ laboratory system for radioxenon analyses. Six years of radioxenon activity concentrations measured with the ß-γ laboratory system in weekly samples from monitoring sites in Germany are presented. Activity concentrations of 133Xe in southern Germany are now typically below 1 mBq m-3 and have decreased by an order of magnitude in the past 25 years. Magnitude and variability of 133Xe activity concentrations are generally larger in northern and western Germany compared to the south, most likely due to the prevailing wind directions in the region. Selected, but typical, periods of elevated radioxenon levels at the stations are investigated and the value of stack emission data is demonstrated.

The combined effects of ocean acidification and copper on the physiological responses of the tropical coral Stylophora pistillata.

A decrease in ocean pH of 0.3 units will likely double the proportion of dissolved copper (Cu) present as the free metal ion, Cu2+, the most bioavailable form of Cu, and one of the most common marine pollutants. We assess the impact of ocean acidification and Cu, separately and in combination, on calcification, photosynthesis and respiration of sub-colonies of a single tropical Stylophora pistillata colony. After 15 days of treatment, total calcification rates were significantly decreased in corals exposed to high seawater pCO2 (∼1000-µatm, 2100 scenario) and at both ambient (1.6-1.9 nmols) and high (2.5-3.6 nmols) dissolved Cu concentrations compared to controls. The effect was increased when both stressors were combined. Coral respiration rates were significantly reduced by the combined stressors after 2 weeks of exposure, indicating the importance of experiment duration. It is therefore likely rising atmospheric CO2 will exacerbate the negative effects of Cu pollution to S. pistillata.

Evaluating 5 decades of atmospheric 85Kr measurements in the southern hemisphere to derive an input function for dating water and ice with implications for interhemispheric circulation and the global 85Kr emission inventory.

In July 2015, the currently only active monitoring station for atmospheric 85Kr measurements in the southern hemisphere went operational at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) in Adelaide, Australia. Here, this new data is presented and combined with measurements from historic monitoring stations, to generate a85Kr input function for the southern hemisphere which is crucial for the application of 85Kr as a dating tracer for water and ice. After a linear increase in atmospheric 85Kr concentrations between 1980 and 2005, concentrations stabilized yielding mean 85Kr activity concentration during the Adelaide monitoring period of 1.3 ± 0.15 Bq/m³ air with slight variations indicating seasonal effects. Data from three northern hemispheric monitoring stations Schauinsland, Freiburg and Jungfraujoch of the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS), located in Central Europe are used to calculate an interhemispheric exchange time of 1.25 ± 0.24 years, using a simple box model approach. Furthermore, it is investigated whether a southern hemispheric 85Kr input function can be calculated from the baseline of the northern hemispheric data set. A comparison between the calculated and the fitted input function shows that analytical techniques can just resolve the concentration differences, emphasising the need of southern hemispheric monitoring stations for 85Kr. Analysing the decay-corrected input function and taking the current detection limit of low-level counting and Atom Trap Trace Analysis of 0.05 Bq/m³ air, a maximum apparent 85Kr tracer age of 40 years can be determined in the southern hemisphere. Finally, the 85Kr measurements are used to derive global 85Kr emission rates which are found to be in good agreement with published emissions from nuclear reprocessing plants.

Quantifying Location-Specific Impacts of Pavement Albedo on Radiative Forcing Using an Analytical Approach.

High-albedo materials reflect more solar radiation and, thereby, alter the earth's radiative balance. Increasing pavement albedo, therefore, has been considered as a technological strategy to mitigate global warming. Previous studies have evaluated this strategy using global average models. To factor this effect into life cycle assessments, location-specific models of the albedo effect for pavements are required. A parametric analytical model is developed to estimate the radiative forcing (RF) using a novel model form and an iterative solution approach. The new model is extended to estimate the corresponding global warming potential (GWP) over an analysis period of 50 years for an albedo change in a pavement surface. This was applied to quantify the GWP impacts of increasing pavement albedo in 14 cities across various climate zones in the US. For the United States, the GWP in kg CO2 equivalent per square meter of altered surface ranges from 0.8 to 1.6 per 0.01 change in albedo, a range of more than 40%. Analysis of a hypothetical albedo change to all darker pavements in the US would produce a negative RF of a magnitude equivalent to that associated with a reduction in CO2 emissions of more than 17 Mton per year.

Prostate cancer treatment with Irreversible Electroporation (IRE): Safety, efficacy and clinical experience in 471 treatments.

BACKGROUND: Irreversible Electroporation (IRE) is a novel image-guided tissue ablation technology that induces cell death via very short but strong pulsed electric fields. IRE has been shown to have preserving properties towards vessels and nerves and the extracellular matrix. This makes IRE an ideal candidate to treat prostate cancer (PCa) where other treatment modalities frequently unselectively destroy surrounding structures inducing severe side effects like incontinence or impotence. We report the retrospective assessment of 471 IRE treatments in 429 patients of all grades and stages of PCa with 6-year maximum follow-up time. MATERIAL AND FINDINGS: The patient cohort consisted of low (25), intermediate (88) and high-risk cancers (312). All had multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging, and 199 men had additional 3D-mapping biopsy for diagnostic work-up prior to IRE. Patients were treated either focally (123), sub-whole-gland (154), whole-gland (134) or for recurrent disease (63) after previous radical prostatectomy, radiation therapy, etc. Adverse effects were mild (19.7%), moderate (3.7%) and severe (1.4%), never life-threatening. Urinary continence was preserved in all cases. IRE-induced erectile dysfunction persisted in 3% of the evaluated cases 12 months post treatment. Mean transient IIEF-5-Score reduction was 33% within 12-month post IRE follow-up and 15% after 12 months. Recurrences within the follow-up period occurred in 10% of the treated men, 23 in or adjacent to the treatment field and 18 outside the treatment field (residuals). Including residuals for worst case analysis, Kaplan Maier estimation on recurrence rate at 5 years resulted in 5.6% (CI95: 1.8-16.93) for Gleason 6, 14.6% (CI95: 8.8-23.7) for Gleason 7 and 39.5% (CI95: 23.5-61.4) for Gleason 8-10. CONCLUSION: The results indicate comparable efficacy of IRE to standard radical prostatectomy in terms of 5-year recurrence rates and better preservation of urogenital function, proving the safety and suitability of IRE for PCa treatment. The data also shows that IRE, besides focal therapy of early PCa, can also be used for whole-gland ablations, in patients with recurrent PCa, and as a problem-solver for local tumor control in T4-cancers not amenable to surgery and radiation therapy anymore.

Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

Analysis of radioxenon and Krypton-85 at the BfS noble gas laboratory.

Proportional counters and a ß-γ coincidence system and their performance characteristics are described, with emphasis on internal and external quality controls. Typical limits of detection (LD) are 8mBqm-3 for 85Kr and 4mBqm-3 for 133Xe for the proportional counters, while for similar xenon volumes the LD for 133Xe in the ß-γ system is approximately 4 times lower. Results of comparative analyses agree above the limit of quantification. Xenon-133 levels in southern Germany are presently at or below the LD of the proportional counters, but above the LD of the ß-γ system, which is now routinely used for analysis of environmental samples.

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

Concentrations of iodine isotopes ((129)I and (127)I) and their isotopic ratios in aerosol samples from Northern Germany.

New data about (129)I, (127)I concentrations and their isotopic ratios in aerosol samples from the trace survey station of the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) in Braunschweig, Northern Germany, are presented and discussed in this paper. The investigated samples were collected on a weekly basis during the years 2011 to 2013. Iodine was extracted from aerosol filters using a strong basic solution and was separated from the matrix elements with chloroform and was analysed by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for (129)I and by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) for (127)I. The concentrations of (127)I and (129)I in aerosol filters ranged from 0.31 to 3.71 ng m(-3) and from 0.06 to 0.75 fg m(-3), respectively. The results of (129)I/(127)I isotopic ratios were in the order 10(-8) to 10(-7). The (129)I originated directly from gaseous emissions and indirectly from liquid emissions (via sea spray) from the reprocessing plants in Sellafield and La Hague. In comparison with the results of (131)I after the Fukushima accident, no contribution of (129)I from this accident was detectable in Central Europe due to the high background originating from the (129)I releases of the European reprocessing plants. (129)I atmospheric activity concentrations were compared with those of an anthropogenic radionuclide ((85)Kr). We did not find any correlation between (129)I and (85)Kr, both having nuclear reprocessing plant as the main source.

[Who can provide a translation when I cannot be understood? Or the art of holding a medical conversation]. / "Wer bietet Übersetzung an, wenn man mich nicht verstehen kann?" oder von der Kunst, ein ärztliches Gespräch zu führen.

A transfacultary seminar of students with a patient resulted in a theatre performance based on Goethe's "Faustus" demonstrating the patient's treatment marathon in our current health-care system. Core demands and results are (i) simple access to evidence-based patient information, (ii) communication skills in the selection and education of medical students. and (iii) active involvement of patients in the self-management of their illness.

Variability of atmospheric krypton-85 activity concentrations observed close to the ITCZ in the southern hemisphere.

Krypton-85 activity concentrations in surface air have been measured at Darwin, which is located in northern Australia and is influenced by seasonal monsoonal activity. Measurements between August 2007 and May 2010 covered three wet seasons. The mean activity concentration of krypton-85 measured during this period was 1.31±0.02Bqm(-3). A linear model fitted to the average monthly data, using month and monsoon as predictors, shows that krypton-85 activity concentration measured during the sampling period has declined by 0.01Bqm(-3) per year. Although there is no statistically significant difference in mean activity concentration of krypton-85 between wet and dry season, the model implies that activity concentration is higher by about 0.015Bqm(-3) during months influenced by the monsoon when a north westerly flow prevails. Backward dispersion runs using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model Hysplit4 highlight possible source regions during an active monsoon located deep in the northern hemisphere, and include reprocessing facilities in Japan and India. However, the contribution of these facilities to krypton-85 activity concentrations in Darwin would be less than 0.003Bqm(-3).

Indirect emissions from biofuels: how important?

A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, we examined direct and indirect effects of possible land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century. Our model predicts that indirect land use will be responsible for substantially more carbon loss (up to twice as much) than direct land use; however, because of predicted increases in fertilizer use, nitrous oxide emissions will be more important than carbon losses themselves in terms of warming potential. A global greenhouse gas emissions policy that protects forests and encourages best practices for nitrogen fertilizer use can dramatically reduce emissions associated with biofuels production.

Trace analysis of aerosol bound particulates and noble gases at the BfS in Germany.

The Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) performs trace analysis measurements in both the frameworks of the German Integrated Measuring and Information system as well as of the International Monitoring System for verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Therefore, different kinds of measurements of aerosol bound radionuclides as well as of radioactive noble gases in the atmosphere are performed. BfS as coordinating laboratory for trace analysis is responsible for the quality control. A quality assurance programme was set up with German institutions and expanded to European laboratories. The existing quality assurance programme of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation for measurements of aerosol bound radionuclides will be extended for noble gas measurements. Applied methods, achieved measurement results and the different kinds of quality assurance are presented and discussed.

A performance estimate for the detection of undeclared nuclear-fuel reprocessing by atmospheric 85Kr.

To test the sensitivity of using atmospheric (85)Kr to detect undeclared separation of plutonium from irradiated nuclear-reactor fuel, measurements of atmospheric (85)Kr taken in Tsukuba, Japan are analyzed to determine: (1) a lower limit of detection for discovering anthropogenic (85)Kr emissions, (2) the probability of detecting plutonium separation at the Tokai Reprocessing Plant, and (3) the extent to which these results can be generalized to other sites. A LLD of at least 3.4 sigma=0.14 Bq/m(3) with a theoretical false-positive rate of 0.05% is recommended for safeguards' purposes. At this threshold, the continuous separation of 100, 300, and 900 g equivalent weapon-grade plutonium per day was found to correspond to 10%, 50%, and 80% probability of detection, respectively. The smallest detected concentration was for the continuous separation of 45 g/day, with a probability of detection of about 0.6%. It was found that the detection rate is determined predominantly by the weather.

Three years of operational experience from Schauinsland CTBT monitoring station.

Data from three years of operation of a low-level aerosol sampler and analyzer (RASA) at Schauinsland monitoring station are reported. The system is part of the International Monitoring System (IMS) for verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). The fully automatic system is capable to measure aerosol borne gamma emitters with high sensitivity and routinely quantifies 7Be and 212Pb. The system had a high level of data availability of 90% within the reporting period. A daily screening process rendered 66 tentative identifications of verification relevant radionuclides since the system entered IMS operation in February 2004. Two of these were real events and associated to a plausible source. The remaining 64 cases can consistently be explained by detector background and statistical phenomena. Inter-comparison with data from a weekly sampler operated at the same station shows instabilities of the calibration during the test phase and a good agreement since certification of the system.

A new compilation of the atmospheric 85krypton inventories from 1945 to 2000 and its evaluation in a global transport model.

This paper gives the yearly (85)Kr emissions of all known reprocessing facilities, which are the main sources of (85)Kr in the atmosphere since 1945, for the years 1945 until 2000. According to this inventory 10,600 PBq (Peta=10(15)) of (85)Kr have been globally emitted from the year 1945 until the end of 2000. The global atmospheric inventory at the end of the year 2000 amounts to 4800 PBq. These emissions have been incorporated into the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model as point sources. Monthly mean model results are compared with measurements made at different locations and times. The influence of each source on the measured concentrations at various locations is studied. The calculated concentrations are found to give reasonably good agreement with the observations, indicating that the emission inventory is realistic. Although, at all northern hemispheric observation sites the model tends to slightly overestimate the concentrations. A possible reason for this overestimation can be found in model features (coarse resolution in time and space). The most prominent discrepancy that is consistently repeated at all northern hemispheric stations occurs in the early 1990s. This could most likely be related to an overestimate of sources. Possibly, the Russian emissions declined earlier than assumed in the current database. Another discrepancy between observations and simulations indicating an incompleteness of the release data is found at some southern hemispheric sites. The variability of their observations could only be explained by regional sources. However, several spikes occur after 1992 when no reprocessing facility is known to be in operation in the southern hemisphere. Production of isotopes for radiopharmaceuticals like technetium-99m from highly enriched uranium is the most likely explanation.

Intercomparison experiments of systems for the measurement of xenon radionuclides in the atmosphere.

Radioactive xenon monitoring is one of the main technologies used for the detection of underground nuclear explosions. Precise and reliable measurements of (131m)Xe, (133g)Xe, (133m)Xe, and (135g)Xe are required as part of the International Monitoring System for compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). For the first time, simultaneous testing of four highly sensitive and automated fieldable radioxenon measurement systems has been performed and compared to established laboratory techniques. In addition to an intercomparison of radioxenon monitoring equipment of different design, this paper also presents a set of more than 2000 measurements of activity concentrations of radioactive xenon made in the city of Freiburg, Germany in 2000. The intercomparison experiment showed, that the results from the newly developed systems agree with each other and the equipment fulfills the fundamental requirements for their use in the verification regime of the CTBT. For 24-h measurements, concentrations as low as 0.1 mBqm(-3) were measured for atmospheric samples ranging in size from 10 to 80 m(3). The (133)Xe activity concentrations detected in the ambient air ranged from below 1 mBqm(-3) to above 100 mBqm(-3).

Monitoring ground-level air for trace analysis: methods and results.

Trace analysis enables the sensitive detection of radionuclide concentrations in ground-level air in the range of microbecquerel per cubic meter (microBq m(-3)). Typical sampling intervals of less than one day up to a few days can be used in routine operation. Trace analysis measurements are performed in the framework of the German Integrated Measuring and Information system (IMIS) and the International Monitoring System (IMS) used for verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Within the environmental monitoring programmes of the German IMIS the Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) performs measurements of aerosol-bound radionuclides and of radioactive noble gases in the atmosphere. Aerosols are collected on filters with high-volume air samplers and analysed by gamma-spectrometry, alpha-spectrometry, and integral measurements of beta-activity, with preceding radiochemical separation. Noble gas samples from 15 sites world-wide are analysed to observe the (85)Kr-release from nuclear fuel reprocessing plants and from seven sites in Germany to monitor the (133)Xe emitted from nuclear power plants. As part of the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the CTBT an automatic aerosol sampling and measuring system and an automatic noble gas sampling and measuring system will be operated by the BfS at Mount Schauinsland near Freiburg. Because of its expertise in noble gas measurements the BfS had been chosen to perform an intercomparison experiment in the BfS laboratory in Freiburg with several automatic noble gas sampling and measurement systems before their installation at IMS sites. To establish quality-assurance programmes for trace analysis performed for the German IMIS close collaboration between the involved German institutions has been established. First steps have been taken to expand cooperation to other European laboratories. Informal data exchange already occurs between trace-analysis laboratories in Europe (Ring of Five) and helps in cases of enhanced activity concentrations to get a rapid overview of the radiological situation and to identify possible sources.

Detection and analysis of xenon isotopes for the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty international monitoring system.

The use of the xenon isotopes for detection of nuclear explosions is of great interest for monitoring compliance with the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty (CTBT). Recently, the automated radioxenon sampler-analyzer (ARSA) was tested at the Institute for Atmospheric Radioactivity (IAR) in Freiburg, Germany to ascertain its use for the CTBT by comparing its results to laboratory-based analyses, determining its detection sensitivity and analyzing its results in light of historical xenon isotope levels and known reactor operations in the area. Xe-133 was detected nearly every day throughout the test at activity concentrations ranging between approximately 0.1 mBq/m3 to as high as 120 mBq/m3. Xe-133m and 135Xe were also detected occasionally during the test at concentrations of less than 1 to a few mBq/m3.