Flu and Finances: Influenza Outbreaks and Loan Defaults in US Cities, 2004-2012.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the association between influenza outbreaks in 83 metropolitan areas and credit card and mortgage defaults, as measured in quarterly zip code-level credit data over the period of 2004 to 2012. METHODS: We used ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and 2-stage least squares instrumental variables regression strategies to examine the relationship between influenza-related Google searches and 30-, 60-, and 90-day credit card and mortgage delinquency rates. RESULTS: We found that a proxy for influenza outbreaks is associated with a small but statistically significant increase in credit card and mortgage default rates, net of other factors. These effects are largest for 90-day defaults, suggesting that influenza outbreaks have a disproportionate impact on vulnerable borrowers who are already behind on their payments. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, it appears there is a relationship between exogenous health shocks (such as influenza) and credit default. The results suggest that consumer finances could benefit from policies that aim to reduce the financial shocks of illness, particularly for vulnerable borrowers.

The impact of long-term participation in the supplemental nutrition assistance program on child obesity.

Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) reached an all-time high of 40.2 million persons in March 2010, which means the program affects a substantial fraction of Americans. A significant body of research has emerged suggesting that participation in SNAP increases the probability of being obese for adult women and has little effect on the probability for adult men. However, studies addressing the effects of participation on children have produced mixed results. This paper examines the effect of long-term SNAP participation on the Body Mass Index (BMI) percentile and probability of being overweight or obese for children ages 5-18 using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 Children and Young Adults data set. An instrumental variables identification strategy that exploits exogenous variation in state-level program parameters, as well as state and federal expansions of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), is used to address the endogeneity between SNAP participation and obesity. SNAP participation is found to significantly reduce BMI percentile and the probability of being overweight or obese for boys and girls ages 5-11 and boys ages 12-18. For girls ages 12-18, SNAP participation appears to have no significant effect on these outcomes.

The timing of the rise in U.S. obesity varies with measure of fatness.

There are several ways to measure fatness and obesity, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. The primary measure for tracking the prevalence of obesity has historically been body mass index (BMI). This paper compares long-run trends in the prevalence of obesity when obesity is defined using skinfold thickness instead of BMI, using data from the full series of U.S. National Health Examination Surveys. The results indicate that when one uses skinfold thickness rather than BMI to define obesity, the rise in the prevalence of obesity is detectable 10-20 years earlier. This underscores the importance of examining multiple measures of fatness when monitoring or otherwise studying obesity.

Expanding wallets and waistlines: the impact of family income on the BMI of women and men eligible for the Earned Income Tax Credit.

The rising rate of obesity has reached epidemic proportions and is now one of the most serious public health challenges facing the US. However, the underlying causes for this increase are unclear. This paper examines the effect of family income changes on body mass index (BMI) and obesity using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort. It does so by using exogenous variation in family income in a sample of low-income women and men. This exogenous variation is obtained from the correlation of their family income with the generosity of state and federal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) program benefits. Income is found to significantly raise the BMI and probability of being obese for women with EITC-eligible earnings, and have no appreciable effect for men with EITC-eligible earnings. The results imply that the increase in real family income from 1990 to 2002 explains between 10 and 21% of the increase in sample women's BMI and between 23 and 29% of their increased obesity prevalence.