Rational social distancing policy during epidemics with limited healthcare capacity.

Epidemics of infectious diseases posing a serious risk to human health have occurred throughout history. During recent epidemics there has been much debate about policy, including how and when to impose restrictions on behaviour. Policymakers must balance a complex spectrum of objectives, suggesting a need for quantitative tools. Whether health services might be 'overwhelmed' has emerged as a key consideration. Here we show how costly interventions, such as taxes or subsidies on behaviour, can be used to exactly align individuals' decision making with government preferences even when these are not aligned. In order to achieve this, we develop a nested optimisation algorithm of both the government intervention strategy and the resulting equilibrium behaviour of individuals. We focus on a situation in which the capacity of the healthcare system to treat patients is limited and identify conditions under which the disease dynamics respect the capacity limit. We find an extremely sharp drop in peak infections at a critical maximum infection cost in the government's objective function. This is in marked contrast to the gradual reduction of infections if individuals make decisions without government intervention. We find optimal interventions vary less strongly in time when interventions are costly to the government and that the critical cost of the policy switch depends on how costly interventions are.

Rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing.

During epidemics people may reduce their social and economic activity to lower their risk of infection. Such social distancing strategies will depend on information about the course of the epidemic but also on when they expect the epidemic to end, for instance due to vaccination. Typically it is difficult to make optimal decisions, because the available information is incomplete and uncertain. Here, we show how optimal decision-making depends on information about vaccination timing in a differential game in which individual decision-making gives rise to Nash equilibria, and the arrival of the vaccine is described by a probability distribution. We predict stronger social distancing the earlier the vaccination is expected and also the more sharply peaked its probability distribution. In particular, equilibrium social distancing only meaningfully deviates from the no-vaccination equilibrium course if the vaccine is expected to arrive before the epidemic would have run its course. We demonstrate how the probability distribution of the vaccination time acts as a generalised form of discounting, with the special case of an exponential vaccination time distribution directly corresponding to regular exponential discounting.

Control of cell colony growth by contact inhibition.

Contact inhibition is a cell property that limits the migration and proliferation of cells in crowded environments. Here we investigate the growth dynamics of a cell colony composed of migrating and proliferating cells on a substrate using a minimal model that incorporates the mechanisms of contact inhibition of locomotion and proliferation. We find two distinct regimes. At early times, when contact inhibition is weak, the colony grows exponentially in time, fully characterised by the proliferation rate. At long times, the colony boundary moves at a constant speed, determined only by the migration speed of a single cell and independent of the proliferation rate. Further, the model demonstrates how cell-cell alignment speeds up colony growth. Our model illuminates how simple local mechanical interactions give rise to contact inhibition, and from this, how cell colony growth is self-organised and controlled on a local level.

Spontaneous spatiotemporal ordering of shape oscillations enhances cell migration.

The migration of cells is relevant for processes such as morphogenesis, wound healing, and invasion of cancer cells. In order to move, single cells deform cyclically. However, it is not understood how these shape oscillations influence collective properties. Here we demonstrate, using numerical simulations, that the interplay of directed motion, shape oscillations, and excluded volume enables cells to locally "synchronize" their motion and thus enhance collective migration. Our model captures elongation and contraction of crawling ameboid cells controlled by an internal clock with a fixed period, mimicking the internal cycle of biological cells. We show that shape oscillations are crucial for local rearrangements that induce ordering of neighboring cells according to their internal clocks even in the absence of signaling and regularization. Our findings reveal a novel, purely physical mechanism through which the internal dynamics of cells influences their collective behavior, which is distinct from well known mechanisms like chemotaxis, cell division, and cell-cell adhesion.

Crowding of Interacting Fluid Particles in Porous Media through Molecular Dynamics: Breakdown of Universality for Soft Interactions.

Molecular dynamics simulations of interacting soft disks confined in a heterogeneous quenched matrix of soft obstacles show dynamics which is fundamentally different from that of hard disks. The interactions between the disks can enhance transport when their density is increased, as disks cooperatively help each other over the finite energy barriers in the matrix. The system exhibits a transition from a diffusive to a localized state, but the transition is strongly rounded. Effective exponents in the mean-squared displacement can be observed over three decades in time but depend on the density of the disks and do not correspond to asymptotic behavior in the vicinity of a critical point, thus, showing that it is incorrect to relate them to the critical exponents in the Lorentz model scenario. The soft interactions are, therefore, responsible for a breakdown of the universality of the dynamics.

Collective motion of cells crawling on a substrate: roles of cell shape and contact inhibition.

Contact inhibition plays a crucial role in cell motility, wound healing, and tumour formation. By mimicking the mechanical motion of cells crawling on a substrate, we constructed a minimal model of migrating cells that naturally gives rise to contact inhibition of locomotion (CIL). The model cell consists of two disks, a front disk (a pseudopod) and a back disk (cell body), which are connected by a finite extensible spring. Despite the simplicity of the model, the collective behaviour of the cells is highly non-trivial and depends on both the shape of the cells and whether CIL is enabled. Cells with a small front disk (i.e., a narrow pseudopod) form immobile colonies. In contrast, cells with a large front disk (e.g., a lamellipodium) exhibit coherent migration without any explicit alignment mechanism in the model. This result suggests that crawling cells often exhibit broad fronts because this helps facilitate alignment. After increasing the density, the cells develop density waves that propagate against the direction of cell migration and finally stop at higher densities.

Dynamic heterogeneities and non-Gaussian behavior in two-dimensional randomly confined colloidal fluids.

A binary mixture of superparamagnetic colloidal particles is confined between glass plates such that the large particles become fixed and provide a two-dimensional disordered matrix for the still mobile small particles, which form a fluid. By varying fluid and matrix area fractions and tuning the interactions between the superparamagnetic particles via an external magnetic field, different regions of the state diagram are explored. The mobile particles exhibit delocalized dynamics at small matrix area fractions and localized motion at high matrix area fractions, and the localization transition is rounded by the soft interactions [T. O. E. Skinner et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 128301 (2013)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.111.128301]. Expanding on previous work, we find the dynamics of the tracers to be strongly heterogeneous and show that molecular dynamics simulations of an ideal gas confined in a fixed matrix exhibit similar behavior. The simulations show how these soft interactions make the dynamics more heterogeneous compared to the disordered Lorentz gas and lead to strong non-Gaussian fluctuations.

Classical Liquids in Fractal Dimension.

We introduce fractal liquids by generalizing classical liquids of integer dimensions d=1,2,3 to a noninteger dimension dl. The particles composing the liquid are fractal objects and their configuration space is also fractal, with the same dimension. Realizations of our generic model system include microphase separated binary liquids in porous media, and highly branched liquid droplets confined to a fractal polymer backbone in a gel. Here, we study the thermodynamics and pair correlations of fractal liquids by computer simulation and semianalytical statistical mechanics. Our results are based on a model where fractal hard spheres move on a near-critical percolating lattice cluster. The predictions of the fractal Percus-Yevick liquid integral equation compare well with our simulation results.

Rounding of the localization transition in model porous media.

The generic mechanisms of anomalous transport in porous media are investigated by computer simulations of two-dimensional model systems. In order to bridge the gap between the strongly idealized Lorentz model and realistic models of porous media, two models of increasing complexity are considered: a cherry-pit model with hard-core correlations as well as a soft-potential model. An ideal gas of tracer particles inserted into these structures is found to exhibit anomalous transport which extends up to several decades in time. Also, the self-diffusion of the tracers becomes suppressed upon increasing the density of the systems. These phenomena are attributed to an underlying percolation transition. In the soft potential model the transition is rounded, since each tracer encounters its own critical density according to its energy. Therefore, the rounding of the transition is a generic occurrence in realistic, soft systems.

Localization dynamics of fluids in random confinement.

The dynamics of two-dimensional fluids confined within a random matrix of obstacles is investigated using both colloidal model experiments and molecular dynamics simulations. By varying fluid and matrix area fractions in the experiment, we find delocalized tracer particle dynamics at small matrix area fractions and localized motion of the tracers at high matrix area fractions. In the delocalized region, the dynamics is subdiffusive at intermediate times, and diffusive at long times, while in the localized regime, trapping in finite pockets of the matrix is observed. These observations are found to agree with the simulation of an ideal gas confined in a weakly correlated matrix. Our results show that Lorentz gas systems with soft interactions are exhibiting a smoothening of the critical dynamics and consequently a rounded delocalization-to-localization transition.