Population-specific causal disease effect sizes in functionally important regions impacted by selection.

Many diseases exhibit population-specific causal effect sizes with trans-ethnic genetic correlations significantly less than 1, limiting trans-ethnic polygenic risk prediction. We develop a new method, S-LDXR, for stratifying squared trans-ethnic genetic correlation across genomic annotations, and apply S-LDXR to genome-wide summary statistics for 31 diseases and complex traits in East Asians (average N = 90K) and Europeans (average N = 267K) with an average trans-ethnic genetic correlation of 0.85. We determine that squared trans-ethnic genetic correlation is 0.82× (s.e. 0.01) depleted in the top quintile of background selection statistic, implying more population-specific causal effect sizes. Accordingly, causal effect sizes are more population-specific in functionally important regions, including conserved and regulatory regions. In regions surrounding specifically expressed genes, causal effect sizes are most population-specific for skin and immune genes, and least population-specific for brain genes. Our results could potentially be explained by stronger gene-environment interaction at loci impacted by selection, particularly positive selection.

Functionally informed fine-mapping and polygenic localization of complex trait heritability.

Fine-mapping aims to identify causal variants impacting complex traits. We propose PolyFun, a computationally scalable framework to improve fine-mapping accuracy by leveraging functional annotations across the entire genome-not just genome-wide-significant loci-to specify prior probabilities for fine-mapping methods such as SuSiE or FINEMAP. In simulations, PolyFun + SuSiE and PolyFun + FINEMAP were well calibrated and identified >20% more variants with a posterior causal probability >0.95 than identified in their nonfunctionally informed counterparts. In analyses of 49 UK Biobank traits (average n = 318,000), PolyFun + SuSiE identified 3,025 fine-mapped variant-trait pairs with posterior causal probability >0.95, a >32% improvement versus SuSiE. We used posterior mean per-SNP heritabilities from PolyFun + SuSiE to perform polygenic localization, constructing minimal sets of common SNPs causally explaining 50% of common SNP heritability; these sets ranged in size from 28 (hair color) to 3,400 (height) to 2 million (number of children). In conclusion, PolyFun prioritizes variants for functional follow-up and provides insights into complex trait architectures.

Extreme Polygenicity of Complex Traits Is Explained by Negative Selection.

Complex traits and common diseases are extremely polygenic, their heritability spread across thousands of loci. One possible explanation is that thousands of genes and loci have similarly important biological effects when mutated. However, we hypothesize that for most complex traits, relatively few genes and loci are critical, and negative selection-purging large-effect mutations in these regions-leaves behind common-variant associations in thousands of less critical regions instead. We refer to this phenomenon as flattening. To quantify its effects, we introduce a mathematical definition of polygenicity, the effective number of independently associated SNPs (Me), which describes how evenly the heritability of a trait is spread across the genome. We developed a method, stratified LD fourth moments regression (S-LD4M), to estimate Me, validating that it produces robust estimates in simulations. Analyzing 33 complex traits (average N = 361k), we determined that heritability is spread ∼4× more evenly among common SNPs than among low-frequency SNPs. This difference, together with evolutionary modeling of new mutations, suggests that complex traits would be orders of magnitude less polygenic if not for the influence of negative selection. We also determined that heritability is spread more evenly within functionally important regions in proportion to their heritability enrichment; functionally important regions do not harbor common SNPs with greatly increased causal effect sizes, due to selective constraint. Our results suggest that for most complex traits, the genes and loci with the most critical biological effects often differ from those with the strongest common-variant associations.

Author Correction: Linkage disequilibrium-dependent architecture of human complex traits shows action of negative selection.

In the version of the paper initially published, information on competing interests for author Benjamin M. Neale was missing. The 'Competing interests' statement should have included the sentence 'B.M.N. is on the Scientific Advisory Board of Deep Genomics'.

Quantification of frequency-dependent genetic architectures in 25 UK Biobank traits reveals action of negative selection.

Understanding the role of rare variants is important in elucidating the genetic basis of human disease. Negative selection can cause rare variants to have larger per-allele effect sizes than common variants. Here, we develop a method to estimate the minor allele frequency (MAF) dependence of SNP effect sizes. We use a model in which per-allele effect sizes have variance proportional to [p(1 - p)]α, where p is the MAF and negative values of α imply larger effect sizes for rare variants. We estimate α for 25 UK Biobank diseases and complex traits. All traits produce negative α estimates, with best-fit mean of -0.38 (s.e. 0.02) across traits. Despite larger rare variant effect sizes, rare variants (MAF < 1%) explain less than 10% of total SNP-heritability for most traits analyzed. Using evolutionary modeling and forward simulations, we validate the α model of MAF-dependent trait effects and assess plausible values of relevant evolutionary parameters.

Leveraging Polygenic Functional Enrichment to Improve GWAS Power.

Functional genomics data has the potential to increase GWAS power by identifying SNPs that have a higher prior probability of association. Here, we introduce a method that leverages polygenic functional enrichment to incorporate coding, conserved, regulatory, and LD-related genomic annotations into association analyses. We show via simulations with real genotypes that the method, functionally informed novel discovery of risk loci (FINDOR), correctly controls the false-positive rate at null loci and attains a 9%-38% increase in the number of independent associations detected at causal loci, depending on trait polygenicity and sample size. We applied FINDOR to 27 independent complex traits and diseases from the interim UK Biobank release (average N = 130K). Averaged across traits, we attained a 13% increase in genome-wide significant loci detected (including a 20% increase for disease traits) compared to unweighted raw p values that do not use functional data. We replicated the additional loci in independent UK Biobank and non-UK Biobank data, yielding a highly statistically significant replication slope (0.66-0.69) in each case. Finally, we applied FINDOR to the full UK Biobank release (average N = 416K), attaining smaller relative improvements (consistent with simulations) but larger absolute improvements, detecting an additional 583 GWAS loci. In conclusion, leveraging functional enrichment using our method robustly increases GWAS power.

Functional architecture of low-frequency variants highlights strength of negative selection across coding and non-coding annotations.

Common variant heritability has been widely reported to be concentrated in variants within cell-type-specific non-coding functional annotations, but little is known about low-frequency variant functional architectures. We partitioned the heritability of both low-frequency (0.5%≤ minor allele frequency <5%) and common (minor allele frequency ≥5%) variants in 40 UK Biobank traits across a broad set of functional annotations. We determined that non-synonymous coding variants explain 17 ± 1% of low-frequency variant heritability ([Formula: see text]) versus 2.1 ± 0.2% of common variant heritability ([Formula: see text]). Cell-type-specific non-coding annotations that were significantly enriched for [Formula: see text] of corresponding traits were similarly enriched for [Formula: see text] for most traits, but more enriched for brain-related annotations and traits. For example, H3K4me3 marks in brain dorsolateral prefrontal cortex explain 57 ± 12% of [Formula: see text] versus 12 ± 2% of [Formula: see text] for neuroticism. Forward simulations confirmed that low-frequency variant enrichment depends on the mean selection coefficient of causal variants in the annotation, and can be used to predict effect size variance of causal rare variants (minor allele frequency <0.5%).

Leveraging molecular quantitative trait loci to understand the genetic architecture of diseases and complex traits.

There is increasing evidence that many risk loci found using genome-wide association studies are molecular quantitative trait loci (QTLs). Here we introduce a new set of functional annotations based on causal posterior probabilities of fine-mapped molecular cis-QTLs, using data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) and BLUEPRINT consortia. We show that these annotations are more strongly enriched for heritability (5.84× for eQTLs; P = 1.19 × 10-31) across 41 diseases and complex traits than annotations containing all significant molecular QTLs (1.80× for expression (e)QTLs). eQTL annotations obtained by meta-analyzing all GTEx tissues generally performed best, whereas tissue-specific eQTL annotations produced stronger enrichments for blood- and brain-related diseases and traits. eQTL annotations restricted to loss-of-function intolerant genes were even more enriched for heritability (17.06×; P = 1.20 × 10-35). All molecular QTLs except splicing QTLs remained significantly enriched in joint analysis, indicating that each of these annotations is uniquely informative for disease and complex trait architectures.

Linkage disequilibrium-dependent architecture of human complex traits shows action of negative selection.

Recent work has hinted at the linkage disequilibrium (LD)-dependent architecture of human complex traits, where SNPs with low levels of LD (LLD) have larger per-SNP heritability. Here we analyzed summary statistics from 56 complex traits (average N = 101,401) by extending stratified LD score regression to continuous annotations. We determined that SNPs with low LLD have significantly larger per-SNP heritability and that roughly half of this effect can be explained by functional annotations negatively correlated with LLD, such as DNase I hypersensitivity sites (DHSs). The remaining signal is largely driven by our finding that more recent common variants tend to have lower LLD and to explain more heritability (P = 2.38 × 10-104); the youngest 20% of common SNPs explain 3.9 times more heritability than the oldest 20%, consistent with the action of negative selection. We also inferred jointly significant effects of other LD-related annotations and confirmed via forward simulations that they jointly predict deleterious effects.

The Evolution of Quorum Sensing as a Mechanism to Infer Kinship.

Bacteria regulate many phenotypes via quorum sensing systems. Quorum sensing is typically thought to evolve because the regulated cooperative phenotypes are only beneficial at certain cell densities. However, quorum sensing systems are also threatened by non-cooperative "cheaters" that may exploit quorum-sensing regulated cooperation, which begs the question of how quorum sensing systems are maintained in nature. Here we study the evolution of quorum sensing using an individual-based model that captures the natural ecology and population structuring of microbial communities. We first recapitulate the two existing observations on quorum sensing evolution: density-dependent benefits favor quorum sensing but competition and cheating will destabilize it. We then model quorum sensing in a dense community like a biofilm, which reveals a novel benefit to quorum sensing that is intrinsically evolutionarily stable. In these communities, competing microbial genotypes gradually segregate over time leading to positive correlation between density and genetic similarity between neighboring cells (relatedness). This enables quorum sensing to track genetic relatedness and ensures that costly cooperative traits are only activated once a cell is safely surrounded by clonemates. We hypothesize that under similar natural conditions, the benefits of quorum sensing will not result from an assessment of density but from the ability to infer kinship.

Facilitated diffusion buffers noise in gene expression.

Transcription factors perform facilitated diffusion [three-dimensional (3D) diffusion in the cytosol and 1D diffusion on the DNA] when binding to their target sites to regulate gene expression. Here, we investigated the influence of this binding mechanism on the noise in gene expression. Our results showed that, for biologically relevant parameters, the binding process can be represented by a two-state Markov model and that the accelerated target finding due to facilitated diffusion leads to a reduction in both the mRNA and the protein noise.