Biomarkers of Alzheimer's Disease and Cerebrovascular Lesions and Clinical Progression in Patients with Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of Alzheimer's disease (AD) may be extremely beneficial for delaying disease progression. Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) may be an early indicator of AD pathology. Not all individuals with SCD will eventually develop AD, making it critical to identify biomarkers during the SCD stage which indicate likely clinical progression. OBJECTIVE: The present review aims to summarize available data on structural MRI and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers and their association with clinical progression to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or AD in people with SCD. METHODS: Database searches were conducted using Embase and PubMed until June 2020. Longitudinal studies assessing biomarkers in individuals with SCD and assessing clinical progression to MCI/AD were included. Two assessors performed data extraction and assessed the risk of bias in the included studies. Data were synthesized narratively. RESULTS: An initial search identified 1,065 papers; after screening and review 14 studies were included. Sample size of the included studies ranged from 28-674, mean age was 60.0-68.6 years, and 10.2%-52%of participants converted to MCI/AD. Lower levels of CSF Aß42 were consistently associated with clinical progression. Combination measures identifying an AD-like profile of Aß42 and tau levels were strongly associated with clinical progression. Biomarkers identified with structural MRI were less conclusive, as some studies found significant associations while others did not. CONCLUSION: Biomarkers may be able to predict clinical progression in those with cognitive complaints. Aß42, or combinations of Aß42 and tau may be useful biomarkers in identifying individuals with SCD who will progress to MCI/AD.

Interventions for preventing falls and fall-related fractures in community-dwelling older adults: A systematic review and network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of single, multiple, and multifactorial interventions to prevent falls and fall-related fractures in community-dwelling older persons. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were systematically searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the effectiveness of fall prevention interventions in community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years, from inception until February 27, 2019. Two large RCTs (published in 2020 after the search closed) were included in post hoc analyses. Pairwise meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA) were conducted. RESULTS: NMA including 192 studies revealed that the following single interventions, compared with usual care, were associated with reductions in number of fallers: exercise (risk ratio [RR] 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.89) and quality improvement strategies (e.g., patient education) (RR 0.90; 95% CI 0.83-0.98). Exercise as a single intervention was associated with a reduction in falls rate (RR 0.79; 95% CI 0.73-0.86). Common components of multiple interventions significantly associated with a reduction in number of fallers and falls rate were exercise, assistive technology, environmental assessment and modifications, quality improvement strategies, and basic falls risk assessment (e.g., medication review). Multifactorial interventions were associated with a reduction in falls rate (RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.80-0.95), but not with a reduction in number of fallers (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.89-1.01). The following single interventions, compared with usual care, were associated with reductions in number of fall-related fractures: basic falls risk assessment (RR 0.60; 95% CI 0.39-0.94) and exercise (RR 0.62; 95% CI 0.42-0.90). CONCLUSIONS: In keeping with Tricco et al. (2017), several single and multiple fall prevention interventions are associated with fewer falls. In addition to Tricco, we observe a benefit at the NMA-level of some single interventions on preventing fall-related fractures.

Efficacy of bone-substitute materials use in immediate dental implant placement: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of using a bone substitute material (BSM) in the fixture-socket gap in patients undergoing tooth extraction and immediate implant placement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL databases were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs). RCTs were screened for eligibility, and data were extracted by two authors independently. Risk of bias (ROB) was assessed using Cochrane's ROB tool 2.0. Primary outcomes were implant failure, overall complications, and soft-tissue esthetics. Secondary outcomes were vertical buccal bone resorption, vertical interproximal bone resorption, horizontal buccal bone resorption, and mid-buccal mucosal recession. Meta-analysis was performed using random-effects model with generic inverse variance weighing. GRADE was used to grade the certainty of the evidence. RESULTS: After screening 19 544 potentially eligible references, 20 RCTs were included in this review, with a total of 848 patients (916 sites). Most included RCTs were deemed of some concerns (53%) or at low (38%) risk of bias, except for overall complications (high ROB). Implant failure did not differ significantly RR = 0.92 (confidence intervals [CI] 0.34 to 2.46) between using a BSM compared with not using a BSM (NoBSM). BSM use resulted in less horizontal buccal bone resorption (MD = -0.52 mm [95% CI -0.74 to -0.30]), a higher esthetic score (MD = 1.49 [95% CI 0.46 to 2.53]), but also more complications (RR = 3.50 [95% CI 1.11 to 11.1] compared with NoBSM. Too few trials compared types of BSMs against each other to allow for pooled analyses. The certainty of the evidence was considered moderate for all outcomes except implant failure (low), overall complications (very low), and vertical interproximal bone resorption (very low). CONCLUSION: BSM use during immediate implant placement reduces horizontal buccal bone resorption and improves the periimplant soft-tissue esthetics. Although BSM use increases the risk of predominantly minor complications.

Bibliotherapy for Sexual Dysfunctions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

AIM: The objective of this study was to assess the efficacy of bibliotherapy for sexual dysfunctions, when compared with no treatment and compared with other interventions. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO were searched from 1970 to January 2020. Selection criteria were randomized controlled trials evaluating assisted or unassisted bibliotherapy for all types of sexual dysfunctions compared with no treatment (wait list or placebo) or with other psychological interventions. Bibliotherapy is defined as psychological treatment using printed instruction to be used by the individual or couple suffering from sexual dysfunction. Primary outcome measures were male and female sexual functioning level and continuation/remission of sexual dysfunction. Secondary outcomes were sexual satisfaction and dropout rate. Sexual functioning and sexual satisfaction were self-reported by participants using validated questionnaires. RESULTS: Fifteen randomized controlled trials with a total of 1,113 participants (781 women; 332 men) met inclusion criteria. Compared with no treatment, unassisted bibliotherapy resulted in larger proportions of female participants reporting remission of sexual dysfunction, and sexual satisfaction was higher in treated participants, both female and male participants. Compared with no treatment, assisted bibliotherapy had significant positive effects on female sexual functioning; no effects on male sexual functioning were found. Results of unassisted and assisted bibliotherapy did not differ from those of other intervention types on any outcome. Throughout, no differences between study conditions were found regarding dropout rates. The certainty of the evidence for all outcomes was rated as very low. CONCLUSION: We found indications of positive effects of bibliotherapy for sexual dysfunctions. Across studies, more significant effects were found for women than for men. However, owing to limitations in the study designs and imprecision of the findings, we were unable to draw firm conclusions about the use of bibliotherapy for sexual dysfunction. More high quality and larger trials are needed. Relevant outcome measures for future studies should be defined as well as unified grading systems to measure these endpoints. In addition, future studies should report on treatment acceptability and adherence. van Lankveld JJDM, van de Wetering FT, Wylie, K et al. Bibliotherapy for Sexual Dysfunctions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. J Sex Med 2021;18:582-614.

Medication review interventions to reduce hospital readmissions in older people.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of medication review as an isolated intervention and with several co-interventions for preventing hospital readmissions in older adults. METHODS: Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and CINAHL were searched for randomized controlled trials evaluating the effectiveness of medication review interventions with or without co-interventions to prevent hospital readmissions in hospitalized or recently discharged adults aged ≥65, until September 13, 2019. Included outcomes were "at least one all-cause hospital readmission within 30 days and at any time after discharge from the index admission." RESULTS: Twenty-five studies met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 11 studies (7,318 participants) contributed to the network meta-analysis (NMA) on all-cause hospital readmission within 30 days. Medication review in combination with (a) medication reconciliation and patient education (risk ratio (RR) 0.45; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.26-0.80) and (b) medication reconciliation, patient education, professional education and transitional care (RR 0.64; 95% CI 0.49-0.84) were associated with a lower risk of all-cause hospital readmission compared to usual care. Medication review in isolation did not significantly influence hospital readmissions (RR 1.06; 95% CI 0.45-2.51). The NMA on all-cause hospital readmission at any time included 24 studies (11,677 participants). Medication review combined with medication reconciliation, patient education, professional education and transitional care resulted in a reduction of hospital readmissions (RR 0.82; 95% CI 0.74-0.91) compared to usual care. The quality of the studies included in this systematic review raised some concerns, mainly regarding allocation concealment, blinding and contamination. CONCLUSION: Medication review in combination with medication reconciliation, patient education, professional education and transitional care, was associated with a lower risk of hospital readmissions compared to usual care. An effect of medication review without co-interventions was not demonstrated. Trials of higher quality are needed in this field.

Cross-sectional associations of amyloid burden with semantic cognition in older adults without dementia: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Previous research suggests the presence of subtle semantic decline in early stages of Alzheimer's disease. This study investigated associations between amyloid burden, a biomarker for Alzheimer's disease, and tasks of semantic impairment in older individuals without dementia. A systematic search in MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Embase yielded 3691 peer-reviewed articles excluding duplicates. After screening, 41 studies with overall 7495 participants were included in the meta-analysis and quality assessment. The overall weighted effect size of the association between larger amyloid burden and larger semantic impairment was 0.10 (95% CI [-0.03; 0.22], p = 0.128) for picture naming, 0.19 (95% CI [0.11; 0.27], p < 0.001) for semantic fluency, 0.15 (95% CI [-0.15; 0.45], p = 0.326) for vocabulary, and 0.10 (95% CI [-0.14; 0.35], p = 0.405; 2 studies) for WAIS Information. Risk of bias was highest regarding comparability, as effect sizes were often not calculated on covariate-adjusted statistics. The relevance of the indicated amyloid-related decline in semantic fluency for research and clinical applications is likely negligible due to the effect's small magnitude. Future research should develop more sensitive metrics of semantic fluency to optimize its use for early detection of Alzheimer's disease-related cognitive impairment.

Transparent Reporting of Multivariable Prediction Models in Journal and Conference Abstracts: TRIPOD for Abstracts.

Clear and informative reporting in titles and abstracts is essential to help readers and reviewers identify potentially relevant studies and decide whether to read the full text. Although the TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis) statement provides general recommendations for reporting titles and abstracts, more detailed guidance seems to be desirable. The authors present TRIPOD for Abstracts, a checklist and corresponding guidance for reporting prediction model studies in abstracts. A list of 32 potentially relevant items was the starting point for a modified Delphi procedure involving 110 experts, of whom 71 (65%) participated in the web-based survey. After 2 Delphi rounds, the experts agreed on 21 items as being essential to report in abstracts of prediction model studies. This number was reduced by merging some of the items. In a third round, participants provided feedback on a draft version of TRIPOD for Abstracts. The final checklist contains 12 items and applies to journal and conference abstracts that describe the development or external validation of a diagnostic or prognostic prediction model, or the added value of predictors to an existing model, regardless of the clinical domain or statistical approach used.

Meta-Analyses Proved Inconsistent in How Missing Data Were Handled Across Their Included Primary Trials: A Methodological Survey.

BACKGROUND: How systematic review authors address missing data among eligible primary studies remains uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether systematic review authors are consistent in the way they handle missing data, both across trials included in the same meta-analysis, and with their reported methods. METHODS: We first identified 100 eligible systematic reviews that included a statistically significant meta-analysis of a patient-important dichotomous efficacy outcome. Then, we successfully retrieved 638 of the 653 trials included in these systematic reviews' meta-analyses. From each trial report, we extracted statistical data used in the analysis of the outcome of interest to compare with the data used in the meta-analysis. First, we used these comparisons to classify the "analytical method actually used" for handling missing data by the systematic review authors for each included trial. Second, we assessed whether systematic reviews explicitly reported their analytical method of handling missing data. Third, we calculated the proportion of systematic reviews that were consistent in their "analytical method actually used" across trials included in the same meta-analysis. Fourth, among systematic reviews that were consistent in the "analytical method actually used" across trials and explicitly reported on a method for handling missing data, we assessed whether the "analytical method actually used" and the reported methods were consistent. RESULTS: We were unable to determine the "analytical method reviews actually used" for handling missing outcome data among 397 trials. Among the remaining 241, systematic review authors most commonly conducted "complete case analysis" (n=128, 53%) or assumed "none of the participants with missing data had the event of interest" (n=58, 24%). Only eight of 100 systematic reviews were consistent in their approach to handling missing data across included trials, but none of these reported methods for handling missing data. Among seven reviews that did explicitly report their analytical method of handling missing data, only one was consistent in their approach across included trials (using complete case analysis), and their approach was inconsistent with their reported methods (assumed all participants with missing data had the event). CONCLUSION: The majority of systematic review authors were inconsistent in their approach towards reporting and handling missing outcome data across eligible primary trials, and most did not explicitly report their methods to handle missing data. Systematic review authors should clearly identify missing outcome data among their eligible trials, specify an approach for handling missing data in their analyses, and apply their approach consistently across all primary trials.

Data sources and methods used to determine pretest probabilities in a cohort of Cochrane diagnostic test accuracy reviews.

BACKGROUND: A pretest probability must be selected to calculate data to help clinicians, guideline boards and policy makers interpret diagnostic accuracy parameters. When multiple analyses for the same target condition are compared, identical pretest probabilities might be selected to facilitate the comparison. Some pretest probabilities may lead to exaggerations of the patient harms or benefits, and guidance on how and why to select a specific pretest probability is minimally described. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the data sources and methods used in Cochrane diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) reviews for determining pretest probabilities to facilitate the interpretation of DTA parameters. A secondary aim was to assess the use of identical pretest probabilities to compare multiple meta-analyses within the same target condition. METHODS: Cochrane DTA reviews presenting at least one meta-analytic estimate of the sensitivity and/or specificity as a primary analysis published between 2008 and January 2018 were included. Study selection and data extraction were performed by one author and checked by other authors. Observed data sources (e.g. studies in the review, or external sources) and methods to select pretest probabilities (e.g. median) were categorized. RESULTS: Fifty-nine DTA reviews were included, comprising of 308 meta-analyses. A pretest probability was used in 148 analyses. Authors used included studies in the DTA review, external sources, and author consensus as data sources for the pretest probability. Measures of central tendency with or without a measure of dispersion were used to determine the pretest probabilities, with the median most commonly used. Thirty-two target conditions had at least one identical pretest probability for all of the meta-analyses within their target condition. About half of the used identical pretest probabilities were inside the prevalence ranges from all analyses within a target condition. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple sources and methods were used to determine (identical) pretest probabilities in Cochrane DTA reviews. Indirectness and severity of downstream consequences may influence the acceptability of the certainty in calculated data with pretest probabilities. Consider: whether to present normalized frequencies, the influence of pretest probabilities on normalized frequencies, and whether to use identical pretest probabilities for meta-analyses in a target condition.

Prognostic value of radiological recurrence patterns in ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To study the prognostic value of CT assessed recurrence patterns on survival outcomes in women with epithelial ovarian cancer. METHODS: CT scans were systematically re-evaluated on predefined anatomical sites for the presence of tumor in all 89 patients diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer between January 2008 and December 2013 who underwent cytoreductive surgery at our institution and developed a recurrence. A Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to test the effect of recurrence patterns on survival. RESULTS: The median survival time for patients grouped as predominantly intraperitoneal (n = 62), hematogenous (n = 13) or lymphatic (n = 14) recurrence was 25.8 (95% CI 18.4-33.2), 27.6 (95% CI 18.5-36.6) and 52.9 months (95% CI 42.1-63.7), respectively. Univariate Cox regression analysis identified the following prognostic factors: lymphatic recurrence pattern (HR 0.42, 95% CI 0.21-0.85), ascites at diagnosis (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.46-3.79), residual tumor at initial surgery (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.36-3.44) and FIGO stage (I-IIIB: HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.33-1.06). The median time to recurrence was 19.5 month for patients after complete debulking surgery, 13.1 months for patients with residual disease ≤1 cm and 8.2 months for patients with residual disease >1 cm after surgery (P < 0.001). No differences in recurrence patterns between patients with complete and incomplete surgery were found. CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged survival rates were found in ovarian cancer patients with a predominantly lymphatic recurrence compared to patients with a predominantly peritoneal or hematogenous recurrence. Completeness of surgery was associated with time to recurrence. Classification of recurrence patterns can help counsel patients on their prognosis at the time of recurrence.

A guidance was developed to identify participants with missing outcome data in randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In order for authors of systematic reviews to address missing data in randomized controlled trials (RCTs), they need to first identify the number of trial participants with missing data. The objective of this study was to provide guidance for authors of systematic reviews on how to identify participants with missing outcome data in reports of RCTs. METHODS: Guidance statements were informed by a review of studies addressing the topic of missing data and an iterative process of feedback and refinement, through meetings involving experts in health research methodology and authors of systematic reviews. RESULTS: The proposed guidance includes (1) definitions of key terms, (2) 19 categories of participants described in RCT reports and who might have missing data, and (3) a flowchart on how to judge the outcome data missingness for each category. The judgment of missingness relies on how trial authors report on the categories and handle them in their analyses. Practically, for their primary analysis, systematic review authors should choose how to identify participants with missing outcome data (i.e., use either "definitely missing data" or "total possible missing data"), then select a method for handling missing data in meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses should be undertaken to explore consistency with competing options for classifying patients as having missing data. CONCLUSION: Adopting the proposed guidance will help promote transparency and consistency regarding how missing data are managed in systematic reviews.

Performance of the Framingham risk models and pooled cohort equations for predicting 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Framingham risk models and pooled cohort equations (PCE) are widely used and advocated in guidelines for predicting 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. Over the past few decades, these models have been extensively validated within different populations, which provided mounting evidence that local tailoring is often necessary to obtain accurate predictions. The objective is to systematically review and summarize the predictive performance of three widely advocated cardiovascular risk prediction models (Framingham Wilson 1998, Framingham ATP III 2002 and PCE 2013) in men and women separately, to assess the generalizability of performance across different subgroups and geographical regions, and to determine sources of heterogeneity in the findings across studies. METHODS: A search was performed in October 2017 to identify studies investigating the predictive performance of the aforementioned models. Studies were included if they externally validated one or more of the original models in the general population for the same outcome as the original model. We assessed risk of bias for each validation and extracted data on population characteristics and model performance. Performance estimates (observed versus expected (OE) ratio and c-statistic) were summarized using a random effects models and sources of heterogeneity were explored with meta-regression. RESULTS: The search identified 1585 studies, of which 38 were included, describing a total of 112 external validations. Results indicate that, on average, all models overestimate the 10-year risk of CHD and CVD (pooled OE ratio ranged from 0.58 (95% CI 0.43-0.73; Wilson men) to 0.79 (95% CI 0.60-0.97; ATP III women)). Overestimation was most pronounced for high-risk individuals and European populations. Further, discriminative performance was better in women for all models. There was considerable heterogeneity in the c-statistic between studies, likely due to differences in population characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: The Framingham Wilson, ATP III and PCE discriminate comparably well but all overestimate the risk of developing CVD, especially in higher risk populations. Because the extent of miscalibration substantially varied across settings, we highly recommend that researchers further explore reasons for overprediction and that the models be updated for specific populations.

Empirical evidence of the impact of study characteristics on the performance of prediction models: a meta-epidemiological study.

OBJECTIVES: To empirically assess the relation between study characteristics and prognostic model performance in external validation studies of multivariable prognostic models. DESIGN: Meta-epidemiological study. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: On 16 October 2018, we searched electronic databases for systematic reviews of prognostic models. Reviews from non-overlapping clinical fields were selected if they reported common performance measures (either the concordance (c)-statistic or the ratio of observed over expected number of events (OE ratio)) from 10 or more validations of the same prognostic model. DATA EXTRACTION AND ANALYSES: Study design features, population characteristics, methods of predictor and outcome assessment, and the aforementioned performance measures were extracted from the included external validation studies. Random effects meta-regression was used to quantify the association between the study characteristics and model performance. RESULTS: We included 10 systematic reviews, describing a total of 224 external validations, of which 221 reported c-statistics and 124 OE ratios. Associations between study characteristics and model performance were heterogeneous across systematic reviews. C-statistics were most associated with variation in population characteristics, outcome definitions and measurement and predictor substitution. For example, validations with eligibility criteria comparable to the development study were associated with higher c-statistics compared with narrower criteria (difference in logit c-statistic 0.21(95% CI 0.07 to 0.35), similar to an increase from 0.70 to 0.74). Using a case-control design was associated with higher OE ratios, compared with using data from a cohort (difference in log OE ratio 0.97(95% CI 0.38 to 1.55), similar to an increase in OE ratio from 1.00 to 2.63). CONCLUSIONS: Variation in performance of prognostic models across studies is mainly associated with variation in case-mix, study designs, outcome definitions and measurement methods and predictor substitution. Researchers developing and validating prognostic models should realise the potential influence of these study characteristics on the predictive performance of prognostic models.

Uniformity in measuring adherence to reporting guidelines: the example of TRIPOD for assessing completeness of reporting of prediction model studies.

To promote uniformity in measuring adherence to the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement, a reporting guideline for diagnostic and prognostic prediction model studies, and thereby facilitate comparability of future studies assessing its impact, we transformed the original 22 TRIPOD items into an adherence assessment form and defined adherence scoring rules. TRIPOD specific challenges encountered were the existence of different types of prediction model studies and possible combinations of these within publications. More general issues included dealing with multiple reporting elements, reference to information in another publication, and non-applicability of items. We recommend our adherence assessment form to be used by anyone (eg, researchers, reviewers, editors) evaluating adherence to TRIPOD, to make these assessments comparable. In general, when developing a form to assess adherence to a reporting guideline, we recommend formulating specific adherence elements (if needed multiple per reporting guideline item) using unambiguous wording and the consideration of issues of applicability in advance.

Effect of exercise and/or reduced calorie dietary interventions on breast cancer-related endogenous sex hormones in healthy postmenopausal women.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity and being overweight are modifiable lifestyle risk factors that consistently have been associated with a higher risk of postmenopausal breast cancer in observational studies. One biologic hypothesis underlying this relationship may be via endogenous sex hormone levels. It is unclear if changes in dietary intake, physical activity, or both, are most effective in changing these hormone levels. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review and meta-analysis examines the effect of reduced caloric dietary intake and/or increased exercise levels on breast cancer-related endogenous sex hormones. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature search in MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane's Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) up to March 2017. Main outcome measures were breast cancer-related endogenous sex hormones. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reporting effects of reduced caloric intake and/or exercise interventions on endogenous sex hormones in healthy, physically inactive postmenopausal women were included. Studies including women using hormone therapy were excluded. The methodological quality of each study was assessed by the Cochrane's risk of bias tool. RESULTS: From the 2599 articles retrieved, seven articles from six RCTs were included in this meta-analysis. These trials investigated 1588 healthy postmenopausal women with a mean age ranging from 58 to 61 years. A combined intervention of reduced caloric intake and exercise, with durations ranging from 16 to 52 weeks, compared with a control group (without an intervention to achieve weight loss) resulted in the largest beneficial effects on estrone treatment effect ratio (TER) = 0.90 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.83-0.97), total estradiol TER = 0.82 (0.75-0.90), free estradiol TER = 0.73 (0.66-0.81), free testosterone TER = 0.86 (0.79-0.93), and sex hormone biding globulin (SHBG) TER = 1.23 (1.15-1.31). A reduced caloric intake without an exercise intervention resulted in significant effects compared with control on total estradiol TER = 0.86 (0.77-0.95), free estradiol TER = 0.77 (0.69-0.84), free testosterone TER = 0.91 (0.84-0.98), and SHBG TER = 1.20 (1.06-1.36). Exercise without dietary change, versus control, resulted in borderline significant effects on androstenedione TER = 0.97 (0.94-1.00), total estradiol TER = 0. 97 (0.94-1.00), and free testosterone TER = 0. 0.97 (0.95-1.00). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This meta-analysis of six RCTs demonstrated that there are beneficial effects of exercise, reduced caloric dietary intake or, preferably, a combination of exercise and diet on breast cancer-related endogenous sex hormones in physically inactive postmenopausal women.

Poor reporting of multivariable prediction model studies: towards a targeted implementation strategy of the TRIPOD statement.

BACKGROUND: As complete reporting is essential to judge the validity and applicability of multivariable prediction models, a guideline for the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) was introduced. We assessed the completeness of reporting of prediction model studies published just before the introduction of the TRIPOD statement, to refine and tailor its implementation strategy. METHODS: Within each of 37 clinical domains, 10 journals with the highest journal impact factor were selected. A PubMed search was performed to identify prediction model studies published before the launch of TRIPOD in these journals (May 2014). Eligible publications reported on the development or external validation of a multivariable prediction model (either diagnostic or prognostic) or on the incremental value of adding a predictor to an existing model. RESULTS: We included 146 publications (84% prognostic), from which we assessed 170 models: 73 (43%) on model development, 43 (25%) on external validation, 33 (19%) on incremental value, and 21 (12%) on combined development and external validation of the same model. Overall, publications adhered to a median of 44% (25th-75th percentile 35-52%) of TRIPOD items, with 44% (35-53%) for prognostic and 41% (34-48%) for diagnostic models. TRIPOD items that were completely reported for less than 25% of the models concerned abstract (2%), title (5%), blinding of predictor assessment (6%), comparison of development and validation data (11%), model updating (14%), model performance (14%), model specification (17%), characteristics of participants (21%), model performance measures (methods) (21%), and model-building procedures (24%). Most often reported were TRIPOD items regarding overall interpretation (96%), source of data (95%), and risk groups (90%). CONCLUSIONS: More than half of the items considered essential for transparent reporting were not fully addressed in publications of multivariable prediction model studies. Essential information for using a model in individual risk prediction, i.e. model specifications and model performance, was incomplete for more than 80% of the models. Items that require improved reporting are title, abstract, and model-building procedures, as they are crucial for identification and external validation of prediction models.

Defining the clinical pathway in cochrane diagnostic test accuracy reviews.

BACKGROUND: The value of a medical test depends on the context in which it might be used. Ideally, questions, results and conclusions of a diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) systematic review should be presented in light of this context. There is increasing acceptance of the value for knowing the impact a test can have on downstream consequences such as costs, implications for further testing and treatment options however there is currently no explicit guidance on how to address this. Authors of a Cochrane diagnostic review have recently been asked to include the clinical pathway in which a test maybe used. We aimed to evaluate how authors were developing their clinical pathways in the light of this. METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for all published DTA reviews. We included only those reviews that included a clinical pathway. We developed a checklist, based on the guidance in the Cochrane Handbook for DTA review authors. To this, we added a number of additional descriptors. We checked if the included pathways fulfilled these descriptors as defined by our checklist. RESULTS: We found 47 reviews, of which 33 (73 %) contained aspects pertaining to a clinical pathway. The 33 reviews addressed the clinical pathway differently, both in content and format. Of these, 21 provided a textual description and 12 include visual and textual descriptions. There was considerable variation in how comprehensively review authors adhered to our checklist. Eighteen reviews (51 %) linked the index test results to downstream clinical management actions and patient consequences, but only eight went on to differentially report on the consequences for false negative results and nine on the consequences for false positive results. CONCLUSION: There is substantial variation in the clinical pathway descriptions in Cochrane systematic reviews of test accuracy. Most reviews do not link misclassifications (i.e. false negatives and false positive) to downstream patient consequences. Review authors could benefit from more explicit guidance on how to create such pathways, which in turn can help guide them in their evidence selection and appraisal of the evidence in the context of downstream consequences of testing.

Non-surgical interventions for late rectal problems (proctopathy) of radiotherapy in people who have received radiotherapy to the pelvis.

BACKGROUND: This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2002, and previously updated in 2007. Late radiation rectal problems (proctopathy) include bleeding, pain, faecal urgency, and incontinence and may develop after pelvic radiotherapy treatment for cancer. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness and safety of non-surgical interventions for managing late radiation proctopathy. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (Issue 11, 2015); MEDLINE (Ovid); EMBASE (Ovid); CANCERCD; Science Citation Index; and CINAHL from inception to November 2015. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing non-surgical interventions for the management of late radiation proctopathy in people with cancer who have undergone pelvic radiotherapy for cancer. Primary outcomes considered were: episodes of bowel activity, bleeding, pain, tenesmus, urgency, and sphincter dysfunction. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Study selection, 'Risk of bias' assessment, and data extraction were performed in duplicate, and any disagreements were resolved by involving a third review author. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 1221 unique references and 16 studies including 993 participants that met our inclusion criteria. One study found through the last update was moved to the 'Studies awaiting classification' section. We did not pool outcomes for a meta-analysis due to variation in study characteristics and endpoints across included studies.Since radiation proctopathy is a condition with various symptoms or combinations of symptoms, the studies were heterogeneous in their intended effect. Some studies investigated treatments targeted at bleeding only (group 1), some investigated treatments targeted at a combination of anorectal symptoms, but not a single treatment (group 2). The third group focused on the treatment of the collection of symptoms referred to as pelvic radiation disease. In order to enable some comparison of this heterogeneous collection of studies, we describe the effects in these three groups separately.Nine studies assessed treatments for rectal bleeding and were unclear or at high risk of bias. The only treatments that made a significant difference on primary outcomes were argon plasma coagulation (APC) followed by oral sucralfate versus APC with placebo (endoscopic score 6 to 9 in favour of APC with placebo, risk ratio (RR) 2.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12 to 4.55; 1 study, 122 participants, low- to moderate-quality evidence); formalin dab treatment (4%) versus sucralfate steroid retention enema (symptom score after treatment graded by the Radiation Proctopathy System Assessments Scale (RPSAS) and sigmoidoscopic score in favour of formalin (P = 0.001, effect not quantified, 1 study, 102 participants, very low- to low-quality evidence), and colonic irrigation plus ciprofloxacin and metronidazole versus formalin application (4%) (bleeding (P = 0.007, effect not quantified), urgency (P = 0.0004, effect not quantified), and diarrhoea (P = 0.007, effect not quantified) in favour of colonic irrigation (1 study, 50 participants, low-quality evidence).Three studies, of unclear and high risk of bias, assessed treatments targeted at something very localised but not a single pathology. We identified no significant differences on our primary outcomes. We graded all studies as very low-quality evidence due to unclear risk of bias and very serious imprecision.Four studies, of unclear and high risk of bias, assessed treatments targeted at more than one symptom yet confined to the anorectal region. Studies that demonstrated an effect on symptoms included: gastroenterologist-led algorithm-based treatment versus usual care (detailed self help booklet) (significant difference in favour of gastroenterologist-led algorithm-based treatment on change in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire-Bowel (IBDQ-B) score at six months, mean difference (MD) 5.47, 95% CI 1.14 to 9.81) and nurse-led algorithm-based treatment versus usual care (significant difference in favour of the nurse-led algorithm-based treatment on change in IBDQ-B score at six months, MD 4.12, 95% CI 0.04 to 8.19) (1 study, 218 participants, low-quality evidence); hyperbaric oxygen therapy (at 2.0 atmospheres absolute) versus placebo (improvement of Subjective, Objective, Management, Analytic - Late Effects of Normal Tissue (SOMA-LENT) score in favour of hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT), P = 0.0019) (1 study, 150 participants, moderate-quality evidence, retinol palmitate versus placebo (improvement in RPSAS in favour of retinol palmitate, P = 0.01) (1 study, 19 participants, low-quality evidence) and integrated Chinese traditional plus Western medicine versus Western medicine (grade 0 to 1 radio-proctopathy after treatment in favour of integrated Chinese traditional medicine, RR 2.55, 95% CI 1.30 to 5.02) (1 study, 58 participants, low-quality evidence).The level of evidence for the majority of outcomes was downgraded using GRADE to low or very low, mainly due to imprecision and study limitations.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Although some interventions for late radiation proctopathy look promising (including rectal sucralfate, metronidazole added to an anti-inflammatory regimen, and hyperbaric oxygen therapy), single small studies provide limited evidence. Furthermore, outcomes important to people with cancer, including quality of life (QoL) and long-term effects, were not well recorded. The episodic and variable nature of late radiation proctopathy requires large multi-centre placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) to establish whether treatments are effective. Future studies should address the possibility of associated injury to other gastro-intestinal, urinary, or sexual organs, known as pelvic radiation disease. The interventions, as well as the outcome parameters, should be broader and include those important to people with cancer, such as QoL evaluations.

Intraoperative frozen section analysis for the diagnosis of early stage ovarian cancer in suspicious pelvic masses.

BACKGROUND: Women with suspected early-stage ovarian cancer need surgical staging which involves taking samples from areas within the abdominal cavity and retroperitoneal lymph nodes in order to inform further treatment. One potential strategy is to surgically stage all women with suspicious ovarian masses, without any histological information during surgery. This avoids incomplete staging, but puts more women at risk of potential surgical over-treatment.A second strategy is to perform a two-stage procedure to remove the pelvic mass and subject it to paraffin sectioning, which involves formal tissue fixing with formalin and paraffin embedding, prior to ultrathin sectioning and multiple site sampling of the tumour. Surgeons may then base further surgical staging on this histology, reducing the rate of over-treatment, but conferring additional surgical and anaesthetic morbidity.A third strategy is to perform a rapid histological analysis on the ovarian mass during surgery, known as 'frozen section'. Tissues are snap frozen to allow fine tissue sections to be cut and basic histochemical staining to be performed. Surgeons can perform or avoid the full surgical staging procedure depending on the results. However, this is a relatively crude test compared to paraffin sections, which take many hours to perform. With frozen section there is therefore a risk of misdiagnosing malignancy and understaging women subsequently found to have a presumed early-stage malignancy (false negative), or overstaging women without a malignancy (false positive). Therefore it is important to evaluate the accuracy and usefulness of adding frozen section to the clinical decision-making process. OBJECTIVES: To assess the diagnostic test accuracy of frozen section (index test) to diagnose histopathological ovarian cancer in women with suspicious pelvic masses as verified by paraffin section (reference standard). SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE (January 1946 to January 2015), EMBASE (January 1980 to January 2015) and relevant Cochrane registers. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies that used frozen section for intraoperative diagnosis of ovarian masses suspicious of malignancy, provided there was sufficient data to construct 2 x 2 tables. We excluded articles without an available English translation. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Authors independently assessed the methodological quality of included studies using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool (QUADAS-2) domains: patient selection, index test, reference standard, flow and timing. Data extraction converted 3 x 3 tables of per patient results presented in articles into 2 x 2 tables, for two index test thresholds. MAIN RESULTS: All studies were retrospective, and the majority reported consecutive sampling of cases. Sensitivity and specificity results were available from 38 studies involving 11,181 participants (3200 with invasive cancer, 1055 with borderline tumours and 6926 with benign tumours, determined by paraffin section as the reference standard). The median prevalence of malignancy was 29% (interquartile range (IQR) 23% to 36%, range 11% to 63%). We assessed test performance using two thresholds for the frozen section test. Firstly, we used a test threshold for frozen sections, defining positive test results as invasive cancer and negative test results as borderline and benign tumours. The average sensitivity was 90.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 87.6% to 92.0%; with most studies typically reporting range of 71% to 100%), and average specificity was 99.5% (95% CI 99.2% to 99.7%; range 96% to 100%).Similarly, we analysed sensitivity and specificity using a second threshold for frozen section, where both invasive cancer and borderline tumours were considered test positive and benign cases were classified as negative. Average sensitivity was 96.5% (95% CI 95.5% to 97.3%; typical range 83% to 100%), and average specificity was 89.5% (95% CI 86.6% to 91.9%; typical range 58% to 99%).Results were available from the same 38 studies, including the subset of 3953 participants with a frozen section result of either borderline or invasive cancer, based on final diagnosis of malignancy. Studies with small numbers of disease-negative cases (borderline cases) had more variation in estimates of specificity. Average sensitivity was 94.0% (95% CI 92.0% to 95.5%; range 73% to 100%), and average specificity was 95.8% (95% CI 92.4% to 97.8%; typical range 81% to 100%).Our additional analyses showed that, if the frozen section showed a benign or invasive cancer, the final diagnosis would remain the same in, on average, 94% and 99% of cases, respectively.In cases where the frozen section diagnosis was a borderline tumour, on average 21% of the final diagnoses would turn out to be invasive cancer.In three studies, the same pathologist interpreted the index and reference standard tests, potentially causing bias. No studies reported blinding pathologists to index test results when reporting paraffin sections.In heterogeneity analyses, there were no statistically significant differences between studies with pathologists of different levels of expertise. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In a hypothetical population of 1000 patients (290 with cancer and 80 with a borderline tumour), if a frozen section positive test result for invasive cancer alone was used to diagnose cancer, on average 261 women would have a correct diagnosis of a cancer, and 706 women would be correctly diagnosed without a cancer. However, 4 women would be incorrectly diagnosed with a cancer (false positive), and 29 with a cancer would be missed (false negative).If a frozen section result of either an invasive cancer or a borderline tumour was used as a positive test to diagnose cancer, on average 280 women would be correctly diagnosed with a cancer and 635 would be correctly diagnosed without. However, 75 women would be incorrectly diagnosed with a cancer and 10 women with a cancer would be missed.The largest discordance is within the reporting of frozen section borderline tumours. Investigation into factors leading to discordance within centres and standardisation of criteria for reporting borderline tumours may help improve accuracy. Some centres may choose to perform surgical staging in women with frozen section diagnosis of a borderline ovarian tumour to reduce the number of false positives. In their interpretation of this review, readers should evaluate results from studies most typical of their population of patients.

Galactomannan detection for invasive aspergillosis in immunocompromised patients.

BACKGROUND: Invasive aspergillosis is the most common life-threatening opportunistic invasive mycosis in immunocompromised patients. A test for invasive aspergillosis should neither be too invasive nor too great a burden for the already weakened patient. The serum galactomannan enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) seems to have the potential to meet both requirements. OBJECTIVES: To obtain summary estimates of the diagnostic accuracy of galactomannan detection in serum for the diagnosis of invasive aspergillosis. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science with both MeSH terms and text words for both aspergillosis and the sandwich ELISA. We checked the reference lists of included studies and review articles for additional studies. We conducted the searches in February 2014. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included cross-sectional studies, case-control designs and consecutive series of patients assessing the diagnostic accuracy of galactomannan detection for the diagnosis of invasive aspergillosis in patients with neutropenia or patients whose neutrophils are functionally compromised. The reference standard was composed of the criteria given by the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and the Mycoses Study Group (MSG). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed quality and extracted data. We carried out meta-analysis using the bivariate method. We investigated sources of heterogeneity by adding potential sources of heterogeneity to the model as covariates. MAIN RESULTS: We included 54 studies in the review (50 in the meta-analyses), containing 5660 patients, of whom 586 had proven or probable invasive aspergillosis. When using an optical density index (ODI) of 0.5 as a cut-off value, the sensitivity of the test was 82% (73% to 90%) and the specificity was 81% (72% to 90%). At a cut-off value of 1.0 ODI, the sensitivity was 72% (65% to 80%) and the specificity was 88% (84% to 92%). At a cut-off value of 1.5 ODI, the sensitivity was 61% (47% to 75%) and the specificity was 93% (89% to 97%). None of the potential sources of heterogeneity had a statistically significant effect on either sensitivity or specificity. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: If we used the test at a cut-off value of 0.5 ODI in a population of 100 patients with a disease prevalence of 9% (overall median prevalence), two patients who have invasive aspergillosis would be missed (sensitivity 82%, 18% false negatives), and 17 patients would be treated unnecessarily or referred unnecessarily for further testing (specificity 81%, 19% false negatives). If we used the test at a cut-off value of 1.5 in the same population, that would mean that four invasive aspergillosis patients would be missed (sensitivity 61%, 39% false negatives), and six patients would be treated or referred for further testing unnecessarily (specificity 93%, 7% false negatives). These numbers should, however, be interpreted with caution because the results were very heterogeneous.