Systemic Risks from Different Perspectives.

Systemic risks are characterized by high complexity, multiple uncertainties, major ambiguities, and transgressive effects on other systems outside of the system of origin. Due to these characteristics, systemic risks are overextending established risk management and create new, unsolved challenges for policymaking in risk assessment and risk governance. Their negative effects are often pervasive, impacting fields beyond the obvious primary areas of harm. This article addresses these challenges of systemic risks from different disciplinary and sectorial perspectives. It highlights the special contributions of these perspectives and approaches and provides a synthesis for an interdisciplinary understanding of systemic risks and effective governance. The main argument is that understanding systemic risks and providing good governance advice relies on an approach that integrates novel modeling tools from complexity sciences with empirical data from observations, experiments, or simulations and evidence-based insights about social and cultural response patterns revealed by quantitative (e.g., surveys) or qualitative (e.g., participatory appraisals) investigations. Systemic risks cannot be easily characterized by single numerical estimations but can be assessed by using multiple indicators and including several dynamic gradients that can be aggregated into diverse but coherent scenarios. Lastly, governance of systemic risks requires interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral cooperation, a close monitoring system, and the engagement of scientists, regulators, and stakeholders to be effective as well as socially acceptable.

Endangering the integrity of science by misusing unvalidated models and untested assumptions as facts: General considerations and the mineral and phosphorus scarcity fallacy.

There is increasing demand for science to contribute to solving societal problems (solutionism). Thereby, scientists may become normative activists for solving certain problems (advocacy). When doing this, they may insufficiently differentiate between scientific and political modes of reasoning and validation (de-differentiationism), which is sometimes linked to questionable forms of utilizing the force of facts (German: Faktengewalt). Scientific findings are simplified and communicated in such a way that they acquire a status as unfalsifiable and absolutely true (truth to power). This becomes critical if the consistency and validation of the findings are questionable and scientific models underlying science activists' actions are doubtful, oversimplified, or incorrect. Herein, we exemplarily elaborate how the integrity of science is endangered by normative solutionist and sociopolitically driven transition management and present mineral scarcity claims that ignore that reserves or resources are dynamic geotechnological-socioeconomic entities. We present the main mineral scarcity models and their fallacious assumptions. We then discuss the phosphorus scarcity fallacy, which is of particular interest as phosphorus is non-substitutable and half of all current food production depends on fertilizers (and thus phosphorus). We show that phosphorus scarcity claims are based on integrating basic geoeconomic knowledge and discuss cognitive and epistemological barriers and motivational and sociopolitical drivers promoting the scarcity fallacy, which affects high-level public media. This may induce unsustainable environmental action. Scientists as honest knowledge brokers should communicate the strengths but also the constraints and limits of scientific modeling and of applying it in reality. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-01006-w.

Sustainable use of phosphorus: a finite resource.

Phosphorus is an essential element of life and of the modern agricultural system. Today, science, policy, agro-industry and other stakeholder groups are increasingly concerned about the sustainable use of this resource, given the dissipative nature of phosphorus and difficulties in assessing, evaluating, and coping with phosphorus pollution in aquatic and terrestrial systems. We argue that predictions about a forthcoming peak, followed by a quick reduction (i.e., physical phosphate rock scarcity) are unreasoned and stress that access to phosphorus (economic scarcity) is already, and may increasingly become critical, in particular for smallholders farmers in different parts of the world. The paper elaborates on the design, development, goals and cutting-edge contributions of a global transdisciplinary process (i.e. mutual learning between science and society including multiple stakeholders) on the understanding of potential contributions and risks related to the current mode of using phosphorus on multiple scales (Global TraPs). While taking a global and comprehensive view on the whole phosphorus-supply chain, Global TraPs organizes and integrates multiple transdisciplinary case studies to better answer questions which inform sustainable future phosphorus use. Its major goals are to contribute to four issues central to sustainable resource management: i) long-term management of biogeochemical cycles, in particular the challenge of closing the phosphorus cycle, ii) achieving food security, iii) avoiding environmental pollution and iv) sustainability learning on a global level by transdisciplinary processes.

Context-specific energy strategies: coupling energy system visions with feasible implementation scenarios.

Conventional energy strategy defines an energy system vision (the goal), energy scenarios with technical choices and an implementation mechanism (such as economic incentives). Due to the lead of a generic vision, when applied in a specific regional context, such a strategy can deviate from the optimal one with, for instance, the lowest environmental impacts. This paper proposes an approach for developing energy strategies by simultaneously, rather than sequentially, combining multiple energy system visions and technically feasible, cost-effective energy scenarios that meet environmental constraints at a given place. The approach is illustrated by developing a residential heat supply strategy for a Swiss region. In the analyzed case, urban municipalities should focus on reducing heat demand, and rural municipalities should focus on harvesting local energy sources, primarily wood. Solar thermal units are cost-competitive in all municipalities, and their deployment should be fostered by information campaigns. Heat pumps and building refurbishment are not competitive; thus, economic incentives are essential, especially for urban municipalities. In rural municipalities, wood is cost-competitive, and community-based initiatives are likely to be most successful. Thus, the paper shows that energy strategies should be spatially differentiated. The suggested approach can be transferred to other regions and spatial scales.

The crucial role of nomothetic and idiographic conceptions of time: interdisciplinary collaboration in nuclear waste management.

The disposal of nuclear waste involves extensive time scales. Technical experts consider up to 1 million years for the disposal of spent fuel and high-level waste in their safety assessment. Yet nuclear waste is not only a technical but also a so-called sociotechnical problem and, therefore, requires interdisciplinary collaboration between technical, natural, social sciences, and the humanities in its management. Given that these disciplines differ in their language, epistemics, and interests, such collaboration might be problematic. Based on evidence from cognitive psychology, we suggest that, in particular, a concept like time is presumably critical and can be understood differently. This study explores how different scientific disciplines understand extensive time scales in general and then focuses on nuclear waste. Eighteen qualitative exploratory interviews were conducted with experts for time-related phenomena of different disciplines, among them experts working in nuclear waste management. Analyses revealed two distinct conceptions of time corresponding to idiographic and nomothetic research approaches: scientists from the humanities and social sciences tend to have a more open, undetermined conception of time, whereas natural scientists tend to focus on a more determined conception that includes some undetermined aspects. Our analyses lead to reflections on potential difficulties for interdisciplinary teams in nuclear waste management. We focus on the understanding of the safety assessment, on potential implications for communication between experts from different disciplines (e.g., between experts from the humanities and engineering for risk assessment and risk communication), and we reflect on the roles of different disciplines in nuclear waste management.

The positioning of sustainability within residential property marketing.

This article investigates the evolution of sustainability positioning in residential property marketing to shed light on the specific role and responsibility of housebuilders and housing investors in urban development. To this end, an analysis is made of housing advertisements published in Basel, Switzerland, over a period of more than 100 years. The paper demonstrates how to draw successfully on advertisements to discern sustainability patterns in housing, using criteria situated along the dimensions building, location and people. Cluster analysis allows five clusters of sustainability positioning to be described­namely, good location, green building, comfort living, pre-sustainability and sustainability. Investor and builder types are differently located in these clusters. Location emerges as an issue which, to a large extent, is advertised independently from other sustainability issues.

Neural correlates of evaluating hazards of high risk.

In personal and in society related context, people often evaluate the risk of environmental and technological hazards. Previous research addressing neuroscience of risk evaluation assessed particularly the direct personal risk of presented stimuli, which may have comprised for instance aspects of fear. Further, risk evaluation primarily was compared to tasks of other cognitive domains serving as control conditions, thus revealing general risk related brain activity, but not such specifically associated with estimating a higher level of risk. We here investigated the neural basis on which lay-persons individually evaluated the risk of different potential hazards for the society. Twenty healthy subjects underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while evaluating the risk of fifty more or less risky conditions presented as written terms. Brain activations during the individual estimations of 'high' against 'low' risk, and of negative versus neutral and positive emotional valences were analyzed. Estimating hazards to be of high risk was associated with activation in medial thalamus, anterior insula, caudate nucleus, cingulate cortex and further prefrontal and temporo-occipital areas. These areas were not involved according to an analysis of the emotion ratings. In conclusion, we emphasize a contribution of the mentioned brain areas involved to signal high risk, here not primarily associated with the emotional valence of the risk items. These areas have earlier been reported to be associated with, beside emotional, viscerosensitive and implicit processing. This leads to assumptions of an intuitive contribution, or a "gut-feeling", not necessarily dependent of the subjective emotional valence, when estimating a high risk of environmental hazards.

Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model.

UNLABELLED: world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. METHODS: We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. RESULTS: The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. CONCLUSIONS: We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficial.

Modeling biogeochemical processes of phosphorus for global food supply.

Harvests of crops, their trade and consumption, soil erosion, fertilization and recycling of organic waste generate fluxes of phosphorus in and out of the soil that continuously change the worldwide spatial distribution of total phosphorus in arable soils. Furthermore, due to variability in the properties of the virgin soils and the different histories of agricultural practices, on a planetary scale, the distribution of total soil phosphorus is very heterogeneous. There are two key relationships that determine how this distribution and its change over time affect crop yields. One is the relationship between total soil phosphorus and bioavailable soil phosphorus and the second is the relationship between bioavailable soil phosphorus and yields. Both of these depend on environmental variables such as soil properties and climate. We propose a model in which these relationships are described probabilistically and integrated with the dynamic feedbacks of P cycling in the human ecosystem. The model we propose is a first step towards evaluating the large-scale effects of different nutrient management scenarios. One application of particular interest is to evaluate the vulnerability of different regions to an increased scarcity in P mineral fertilizers. Another is to evaluate different regions' deficiency in total soil phosphorus compared with the level at which they could sustain their maximum potential yield without external mineral inputs of phosphorus but solely by recycling organic matter to close the nutrient cycle.

Possibilities and limitations of modeling environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials by probabilistic material flow analysis.

Information on environmental concentrations is needed to assess the risks that engineered nanomaterials (ENM) may pose to the environment. In this study, predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) were modeled for nano-TiO2, carbon nanotubes (CNT) and nano-Ag for Switzerland. Based on a life-cycle perspective, the model considered as input parameters the production volumes of the ENMs, the manufacturing and consumption quantities of products containing those materials, and the fate and pathways of ENMs in natural and technical environments. Faced with a distinct scarcity of data, we used a probabilistic material flow analysis model, treating all parameters as probability distributions. The modeling included Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations as well as a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The PEC values of the ENMs in the different environmental compartments vary widely due to different ENM production volumes and different life cycles of the nanoproducts. The use of ENM in products with high water relevance leads to higher water and sediment concentrations for nano-TiO2 and nano-Ag, compared to CNTs, where smaller amounts of ENM reach the aquatic compartments. This study also presents a sensitivity analysis and a comprehensive discussion of the uncertainties of the simulation results and the limitations of the used approach. To estimate potential risks, the PEC values were compared to the predicted-no-effect concentrations (PNEC) derived from published data. The risk quotients (PEC/PNEC) for nano-TiO2 and nano-Ag were larger than one for treated wastewater and much smaller for all other environmental compartments (e.g., water, sediments, soils). We conclude that probabilistic modeling is very useful for predicting environmental concentrations of ENMs given the current lack of substantiated data.

Technological change in Swiss thermal waste treatment: an expert-based socio-technical analysis.

Understanding technological change provides a crucial basis for governing sustainability transitions. In this paper we present an analysis of technological change using the example of Swiss thermal waste processing. In recent years, increased concerns about the low quality of residues from grate-firing systems led to the examination of alternative technologies. Yet despite clear indications of a potential better performance with respect to residue quality, none of these alternatives has been adopted. Based on a two-stage knowledge integration among 15 leading experts, in a retrospective analysis we identified factors that have significantly affected technological change in Swiss thermal waste processing. These factors were then related to three technological options representing different types of technological change, i.e., from incremental improvements of the existing to the implementation of a new technology. The results indicate that technological change is currently in a technological lock-in and provide detailed insights on the causes. The lock-in results in the step-wise further development of the status quo grate-firing system despite its limitations for improving the residue qualities. Almost all factors (legal, economic, societal, technological) of the existing 'thermal waste management' system have been well adapted to the cost- and energy-efficient grate-firing technology, blocking innovative technologies from entering the Swiss market. In addition, pressures from the context, e.g., societal pressure related to landfill risks, have not been strong enough to promote non-incremental change.

Toward a sustainability label for food products: an analysis of experts' and consumers' acceptance.

The recent proliferation of standards and labels for organic, fair-trade, locally produced, and healthy food products risks creating confusion among consumers. This study presents a standardized approach to developing a comprehensive sustainability label that incorporates ecological, economic, and social values. The methodology is based on an extension of modular life-cycle assessment to non-environmental sustainability criteria. Interviews with a wide range of experts (n=65) and a consumer survey (n=233) were conducted to analyze the feasibility and potential effectiveness of the approach. Responses indicated that a comprehensive sustainability label could considerably influence consumption patterns and facilitate cross-product comparisons.

Modeled environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials (TiO(2), ZnO, Ag, CNT, Fullerenes) for different regions.

Engineered nanomaterials (ENM) are already used in many products and consequently released into environmental compartments. In this study, we calculated predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) based on a probabilistic material flow analysis from a life-cycle perspective of ENM-containing products. We modeled nano-TiO(2), nano-ZnO, nano-Ag, carbon nanotubes (CNT), and fullerenes for the U.S., Europe and Switzerland. The environmental concentrations were calculated as probabilistic density functions and were compared to data from ecotoxicological studies. The simulated modes (most frequent values) range from 0.003 ng L(-1) (fullerenes) to 21 ng L(-1) (nano-TiO(2)) for surface waters and from 4 ng L(-1) (fullerenes) to 4 microg L(-1) (nano-TiO(2)) for sewage treatment effluents. For Europe and the U.S., the annual increase of ENMs on sludge-treated soil ranges from 1 ng kg(-1) for fullerenes to 89 microg kg(-1) for nano-TiO(2). The results of this study indicate that risks to aquatic organisms may currently emanate from nano-Ag, nano-TiO(2), and nano-ZnO in sewage treatment effluents for all considered regions and for nano-Ag in surface waters. For the other environmental compartments for which ecotoxicological data were available, no risks to organisms are presently expected.

Models of epidemics: when contact repetition and clustering should be included.

BACKGROUND: The spread of infectious disease is determined by biological factors, e.g. the duration of the infectious period, and social factors, e.g. the arrangement of potentially contagious contacts. Repetitiveness and clustering of contacts are known to be relevant factors influencing the transmission of droplet or contact transmitted diseases. However, we do not yet completely know under what conditions repetitiveness and clustering should be included for realistically modelling disease spread. METHODS: We compare two different types of individual-based models: One assumes random mixing without repetition of contacts, whereas the other assumes that the same contacts repeat day-by-day. The latter exists in two variants, with and without clustering. We systematically test and compare how the total size of an outbreak differs between these model types depending on the key parameters transmission probability, number of contacts per day, duration of the infectious period, different levels of clustering and varying proportions of repetitive contacts. RESULTS: The simulation runs under different parameter constellations provide the following results: The difference between both model types is highest for low numbers of contacts per day and low transmission probabilities. The number of contacts and the transmission probability have a higher influence on this difference than the duration of the infectious period. Even when only minor parts of the daily contacts are repetitive and clustered can there be relevant differences compared to a purely random mixing model. CONCLUSION: We show that random mixing models provide acceptable estimates of the total outbreak size if the number of contacts per day is high or if the per-contact transmission probability is high, as seen in typical childhood diseases such as measles. In the case of very short infectious periods, for instance, as in Norovirus, models assuming repeating contacts will also behave similarly as random mixing models. If the number of daily contacts or the transmission probability is low, as assumed for MRSA or Ebola, particular consideration should be given to the actual structure of potentially contagious contacts when designing the model.

Risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials: a survey of industrial approaches.

Engineered nanomaterials pose many new questions on risk assessment that are notyet completely answered. Thus, voluntary industrial risk assessment initiatives can be considered vital to the environmental health and safety issues associated with engineered nanomaterials. We present an overview of the general properties of nanomaterial products in the market, and how industry, in general, approaches issues of nanomaterial risk and safety based on a written survey of 40 companies working with nanomaterials in Germany and Switzerland. It was found that the nanomaterials in this sample exhibited such a diversity of properties that a categorization according to risk and material issues could not be made. Twenty-six companies (65%) indicated that they did not perform any risk assessment of their nanomaterials and 13 companies (32.5%) performed risk assessments sometimes or always. Fate of nanomaterials in the use and disposal stage received little attention by industry and the majority of companies did notforesee unintentional release of nanomaterials throughout the life cycle. The development of risk and safety decision frameworks in industry seems therefore necessary to ensure that the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials are taken into consideration.

Measuring societal effects of transdisciplinary research projects: design and application of an evaluation method.

Most Transdisciplinary Research (TdR) projects combine scientific research with the building of decision making capacity for the involved stakeholders. These projects usually deal with complex, societally relevant, real-world problems. This paper focuses on TdR projects, which integrate the knowledge of researchers and stakeholders in a collaborative transdisciplinary process through structured methods of mutual learning. Previous research on the evaluation of TdR has insufficiently explored the intended effects of transdisciplinary processes on the real world (societal effects). We developed an evaluation framework for assessing the societal effects of transdisciplinary processes. Outputs (measured as procedural and product-related involvement of the stakeholders), impacts (intermediate effects connecting outputs and outcomes) and outcomes (enhanced decision making capacity) are distinguished as three types of societal effects. Our model links outputs and outcomes of transdisciplinary processes via the impacts using a mediating variables approach. We applied this model in an ex post evaluation of a transdisciplinary process. 84 out of 188 agents participated in a survey. The results show significant mediation effects of the two impacts "network building" and "transformation knowledge". These results indicate an influence of a transdisciplinary process on the decision making capacity of stakeholders, especially through social network building and the generation of knowledge relevant for action.

Discrete event simulation for exploring strategies: an urban water management case.

This paper presents a model structure aimed at offering an overview of the various elements of a strategy and exploring their multidimensional effects through time in an efficient way. It treats a strategy as a set of discrete events planned to achieve a certain strategic goal and develops a new form of causal networks as an interfacing component between decision makers and environment models, e.g., life cycle inventory and material flow models. The causal network receives a strategic plan as input in a discrete manner and then outputs the updated parameter sets to the subsequent environmental models. Accordingly, the potential dynamic evolution of environmental systems caused by various strategies can be stepwise simulated. It enables a way to incorporate discontinuous change in models for environmental strategy analysis, and enhances the interpretability and extendibility of a complex model by its cellular constructs. It is exemplified using an urban water management case in Kunming, a major city in Southwest China. By utilizing the presented method, the case study modeled the cross-scale interdependencies of the urban drainage system and regional water balance systems, and evaluated the effectiveness of various strategies for improving the situation of Dianchi Lake.

Combining experts' risk judgments on technology performance of phytoremediation: self-confidence ratings, averaging procedures, and formative consensus building.

Expert panels and averaging procedures are common means for coping with the uncertainty of effects of technology application in complex environments. We investigate the connection between confidence and the validity of expert judgment. Moreover, a formative consensus building procedure (FCB) is introduced that generates probability statements on the performance of technologies, and we compare different algorithms for the statistical aggregation of individual judgments. The case study refers to an expert panel of 10 environmental scientists assessing the performance of a soil cleanup technology that uses the capability of certain plants to accumulate heavy metals from the soil in the plant body (phytoremediation). The panel members first provided individual statements on the effectiveness of a phytoremediation. Such statements can support policymakers, answering the questions concerning the expected performance of the new technology in contaminated areas. The present study reviews (1) the steps of the FCB, (2) the constraints of technology application (contaminants, soil structure, etc.), (3) the measurement of expert knowledge, (4) the statistical averaging and the discursive agreement procedures, and (5) the boundaries of application for the FCB method. The quantitative statement oriented part of FCB generates terms such as: "The probability that the concentration of soil contamination will be reduced by at least 50% is 0.8." The data suggest that taking the median of the individual expert estimates provides the most accurate aggregated estimate. The discursive agreement procedure of FCB appears suitable for deriving politically relevant singular statements rather than for obtaining comprehensive information about uncertainties as represented by probability distributions.

Decision making under uncertainty in case of soil remediation.

Decisions on soil remediation are one of the most difficult management issues of municipal and state agencies. The assessment of contamination is uncertain, the costs of remediation are high, and the impacts on the environment are multiple. This paper presents a general, transparent, and consistent method for decision making among the remediation alternatives. Soil washing, phytoremediation, and no remediation are exemplarily considered. Multi-criteria utility functions including (a) the cost of remediation (b) the impact on human health and agricultural productivity, and (c) the economic gain after remediation are constructed using probability density functions representing contamination for all site coordinates. Herewith, the probability of different types of (i) correct decisions such as a hit or a true rejection and (ii) erroneous decisions such as a false alarm or miss are examined. The decision theoretic model is applied to a case study on heavy metal contaminated soil. This case study reveals the non-linear structure of multi-criteria-decision making. The case study shows that the geostatistical uncertainties of the log-normal distributed soil contamination must be taken into account: When uncertainties are not considered and the utilities are assessed according to the estimated value for a spatial unit, only few (N=26) spatial units result where the utility score of the alternative soil washing are higher than the utility score to the no remediation alternative. However, when taking into account geostatistical uncertainties of the log-normal soil distribution this number is about ten times greater (N=237). Furthermore, the use of 'maximizing expected utility' as decision rule is critical in that it may lead to a high probability of misses.