ABSTRACT
Despite substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) in Austria over the 30 year time period 1990-2019, summertime surface ozone (O3) concentrations still exceed frequently and over wide areas the ozone maximum 8 hour mean target value for the protection of human health. We present a detailed analysis of in situ observations of O3 and NO x to (1) disentangle the main processes propelling O3 formation such as precursor emissions and meteorology and (2) quantify the impact of NO x reductions and (3) estimate the effect of climate warming. The temperature sensitivity of surface O3 production is assessed separately for NO x and VOC limited regimes. The temperature sensitivity of ozone increases with temperature in spring and summer. On average, the evaluated absolute values of the sensitivities are a factor of 2.5 larger in summer than in spring. The analysis of ambient O3 burdens during hot summers indicates that rising temperatures in a warming climate might largely offset the benefit of future emission reductions. MAX-DOAS formaldehyde (HCHO) measurements in Vienna from 2017 to 2019 are used as a proxy for VOC emissions. The seasonal and the temperature dependence of the observed HCHO mixing ratios indicate that biogenic VOCs (BVOCs) are the dominant source of hydrocarbons in the urban setting during the ozone season. The result agrees well with VOC emission estimates that show BVOCs to be the dominant VOC source in Austria since the early 2000s. Accordingly, anthropogenic NO x emission reductions remain, outside of urban cores, the most effective instrument for policymakers to lower surface ozone concentrations in the short term.
ABSTRACT
In this study we examine the determination accuracy of both the mean radiant temperature (Tmrt) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) within the scope of numerical weather prediction (NWP), and global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate model simulations. First, Tmrt is determined and the so-called UTCI-Fiala model is then used for the calculation of UTCI. Taking into account the uncertainties of NWP model (among others the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model HIRLAM) output (temperature, downwelling short-wave and long-wave radiation) stated in the literature, we simulate and discuss the uncertainties of Tmrt and UTCI at three stations in different climatic regions of Europe. The results show that highest negative (positive) differences to reference cases (under assumed clear-sky conditions) of up to -21°C (9°C) for Tmrt and up to -6°C (3.5°C) for UTCI occur in summer (winter) due to cloudiness. In a second step, the uncertainties of RCM simulations are analyzed: three RCMs, namely ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational), RegCM (REGional Climate Model) and REMO (REgional MOdel) are nested into GCMs and used for the prediction of temperature and radiation fluxes in order to estimate Tmrt and UTCI. The inter-comparison of RCM output for the three selected locations shows that biases between 0.0 and ±17.7°C (between 0.0 and ±13.3°C) for Tmrt (UTCI), and RMSE between ±0.5 and ±17.8°C (between ±0.8 and ±13.4°C) for Tmrt (UTCI) may be expected. In general the study shows that uncertainties of UTCI, due to uncertainties arising from calculations of radiation fluxes (based on NWP models) required for the prediction of Tmrt, are well below ±2°C for clear-sky cases. However, significant higher uncertainties in UTCI of up to ±6°C are found, especially when prediction of cloudiness is wrong.
