ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Alcohol intake is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC); however, there is limited knowledge on whether changing alcohol drinking habits during adulthood modifies CRC risk. OBJECTIVE: Leveraging longitudinal exposure assessments on alcohol intake at different ages, we examined the relationship between change in alcohol intake and subsequent CRC risk. METHODS: Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, changes in alcohol intake comparing follow-up with baseline assessments were investigated in relation to CRC risk. The analysis included 191,180, participants and 1530 incident CRC cases, with exclusion of the first three years of follow-up to minimize reverse causation. Trajectory profiles of alcohol intake, assessed at ages 20, 30, 40, 50 years, at baseline and during follow-up, were estimated using latent class mixed models and related to CRC risk, including 407,605 participants and 5,008 incident CRC cases. RESULTS: Mean age at baseline was 50.2 years and the follow-up assessment occurred on average 7.1 years later. Compared to stable intake, a 12 g/day increase in alcohol intake during follow-up was positively associated with CRC risk (HR = 1.15, 95%CI 1.04, 1.25), while a 12 g/day reduction was inversely associated with CRC risk (HR = 0.86, 95%CI 0.78, 0.95). Trajectory analysis showed that compared to low alcohol intake, men who increased their alcohol intake from early- to mid- and late-adulthood by up to 30 g/day on average had significantly increased CRC risk (HR = 1.24; 95%CI 1.08, 1.42), while no associations were observed in women. Results were consistent by anatomical subsite. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing alcohol intake during mid-to-late adulthood raised CRC risk, while reduction lowered risk.
Subject(s)
Colorectal Neoplasms , Adult , Alcohol Drinking/adverse effects , Alcohol Drinking/epidemiology , Colorectal Neoplasms/epidemiology , Colorectal Neoplasms/etiology , Female , Humans , Male , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Surveys and QuestionnairesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Early detection of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has the potential to improve disease outcomes. No screening program for sporadic RCC is in place. Given relatively low incidence, screening would need to focus on people at high risk of clinically meaningful disease so as to limit overdiagnosis and screen-detected false positives. METHODS: Among 192,172 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (including 588 incident RCC cases), we evaluated a published RCC risk prediction model (including age, sex, BMI, and smoking status) in terms of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (observed probability as a function of predicted probability). We used a flexible parametric survival model to develop an expanded model including age, sex, BMI, and smoking status, with the addition of self-reported history of hypertension and measured blood pressure. RESULTS: The previously published model yielded well-calibrated probabilities and good discrimination (C-statistic [95% CI]: 0.699 [0.679-0.721]). Our model had slightly improved discrimination (0.714 [0.694-0.735], bootstrap optimism-corrected C-statistic: 0.709). Despite this good performance, predicted risk was low for the vast majority of participants, with 70% of participants having 10-year risk less than 0.0025. CONCLUSIONS: Although the models performed well for the prediction of incident RCC, they are currently insufficiently powerful to identify individuals at substantial risk of RCC in a general population. IMPACT: Despite the promising performance of the EPIC RCC risk prediction model, further development of the model, possibly including biomarkers of risk, is required to enable risk stratification of RCC.
