Adding pattern and process to eco-evo theory and applications.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics result when interacting biological forces simultaneously produce demographic and genetic population responses. Eco-evolutionary simulators traditionally manage complexity by minimizing the influence of spatial pattern on process. However, such simplifications can limit their utility in real-world applications. We present a novel simulation modeling approach for investigating eco-evolutionary dynamics, centered on the driving role of landscape pattern. Our spatially-explicit, individual-based mechanistic simulation approach overcomes existing methodological challenges, generates new insights, and paves the way for future investigations in four focal disciplines: Landscape Genetics, Population Genetics, Conservation Biology, and Evolutionary Ecology. We developed a simple individual-based model to illustrate how spatial structure drives eco-evo dynamics. By making minor changes to our landscape's structure, we simulated continuous, isolated, and semi-connected landscapes, and simultaneously tested several classical assumptions of the focal disciplines. Our results exhibit expected patterns of isolation, drift, and extinction. By imposing landscape change on otherwise functionally-static eco-evolutionary models, we altered key emergent properties such as gene-flow and adaptive selection. We observed demo-genetic responses to these landscape manipulations, including changes in population size, probability of extinction, and allele frequencies. Our model also demonstrated how demo-genetic traits, including generation time and migration rate, can arise from a mechanistic model, rather than being specified a priori. We identify simplifying assumptions common to four focal disciplines, and illustrate how new insights might be developed in eco-evolutionary theory and applications by better linking biological processes to landscape patterns that we know influence them, but that have understandably been left out of many past modeling studies.

Tough places and safe spaces: Can refuges save salmon from a warming climate?

The importance of thermal refuges in a rapidly warming world is particularly evident for migratory species, where individuals encounter a wide range of conditions throughout their lives. In this study, we used a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model to evaluate the buffering potential of cold-water thermal refuges for anadromous salmon and trout (Oncorhynchus spp.) migrating upstream through a warm river corridor that can expose individuals to physiologically stressful temperatures. We considered upstream migration in relation to migratory phenotypes that were defined in terms of migration timing, spawn timing, swim speed, and use of cold-water thermal refuges. Individuals with different migratory phenotypes migrated upstream through riverine corridors with variable availability of cold-water thermal refuges and mainstem temperatures. Use of cold-water refuges (CWRs) decreased accumulated sublethal exposures to physiologically stressful temperatures when measured in degree-days above 20, 21, and 22°C. The availability of CWRs was an order of magnitude more effective in lowering accumulated sublethal exposures under current and future mainstem temperatures for summer steelhead than fall Chinook Salmon. We considered two emergent model outcomes, survival and percent of available energy used, in relation to thermal heterogeneity and migratory phenotype. Mean percent energy loss attributed to future warmer mainstem temperatures was at least two times larger than the difference in energy used in simulations without CWRs for steelhead and salmon. We also found that loss of CWRs reduced the diversity of energy-conserving migratory phenotypes when we examined the variability in entry timing and travel time outside of CWRs in relation to energy loss. Energy-conserving phenotypic space contracted by 7%-23% when CWRs were unavailable under the current thermal regime. Our simulations suggest that, while CWRs do not entirely mitigate for stressful thermal exposures in mainstem rivers, these features are important for maintaining a diversity of migration phenotypes. Our study suggests that the maintenance of diverse portfolios of migratory phenotypes and cool- and cold-water refuges might be added to the suite of policies and management actions presently being deployed to improve the likelihood of Pacific salmonid persistence into a future characterized by climate change.

HexFire: A Flexible and Accessible Wildfire Simulator.

As fire frequency and severity grow throughout the world, scientists working across a range of disciplines will increasingly need to incorporate wildfire models into their research. However, fire simulators tend to be highly complex, time-consuming to learn, and difficult to parameterize. As a result, embracing these models can prove impractical for scientists and practitioners who are not fire specialists. Here we introduce a parsimonious wildfire simulator named HexFire that has been designed for rapid uptake by investigators who do not specialize in the mechanics of fire spread. HexFire should be useful to such nonspecialists for representing the spread of fire, interactions with fuel breaks, and for integrating wildfire into other types of ecological models. We provide a detailed description of the HexFire simulator's design and mechanisms. Our heuristic fire spread examples highlight the flexibility inherent in the model system, demonstrate that HexFire can generate a wide range of emergent fire behaviors, and illustrate how HexFire might be coupled with other environmental models. We also describe ways that HexFire itself might be altered or augmented. HexFire can be used as a proxy for more detailed fire simulators and to assess the implications of wildfire for local ecological systems. HexFire can also simulate fire interactions with fuel breaks and active fire suppression.

A spatially explicit model for estimating risks of pesticide exposure to bird populations.

Pesticides are used widely in agriculture and have the potential to affect non-target organisms, including birds. We developed an integrated modeling system to allow for spatially-explicit evaluation of potential impacts to bird populations following exposures to pesticides. Our novel methodology builds upon three existing models: the Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM), the Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (MCnest), and HexSim to simulate population dynamics. We parameterized the integrated modeling system using information required under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act, together with species habitat and life history data available from the scientific literature as well as landcover data representing agricultural areas and species habitat. Our case study of the federally threatened California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica) illustrates how the integrated modeling system can estimate the population-scale consequences of pesticide applications. We simulated impacts from two insecticides applied to wheat: one causing mortality (survival stressor), and the other causing reproductive failure (reproductive stressor). We observed declines in simulated gnatcatcher abundance and changes in the species' distribution following applications of each pesticide; however, the impacts of the two pesticides were different. Our methodology attempts to strike a balance between biological realism and model complexity and should be applicable to a wide array of species, systems, and stressors.

Simulating the Consequences of Roads for Wildlife Population Dynamics.

Rapidly expanding road networks have been a key driver of the fragmentation and isolation of many wildlife species, and are a source of significant mortality due to collisions with vehicles. But not all animals are affected equally by transportation infrastructure, and in most cases little is known about the population-scale consequences of roads for wildlife. Even less information is available to characterize species' behavioral responses to roads. Although research shows that maned wolves (Chrysocyon brachyurus) in Brazil are experiencing considerable fragmentation and road mortality, the degree to which these disturbances are impacting the species' viability is unknown. The goal of this study was to analyze the potential effects of roads on maned wolf population size and structure. We used a simulation model to evaluate the population-scale consequences of individual maned wolf interactions with roads, which can result in road crossing, avoidance, or mortality due to a collision with a vehicle. We also forecasted where in Brazil these impacts might be most significant. Our model incorporated species demographic and movement parameters, plus habitat quality and a map of the road network. We found that even moderate rates of road mortality led to severe declines in population size, and that four specific locations accounted for a disproportionate fraction of roadkill events. Our approach will be generally useful for evaluating the relative importance of road effects on species conservation in many ecological systems, for prioritizing data collection efforts, and for informing conservation policies and mitigation strategies.

Assessing contributions of cold-water refuges to reproductive migration corridor conditions for adult Chinook Salmon and steelhead trout in the Columbia River, USA.

Diadromous fish populations face multiple challenges along their migratory routes. These challenges include suboptimal water quality, harvest, and barriers to longitudinal and lateral connectivity. Interactions among factors influencing migration success make it challenging to assess management options for improving migratory fish conditions along riverine migration corridors. We describe a spatially explicit simulation model that integrates complex individual behaviors of fall-run Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and summer-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss) during migration, responds to variable habitat conditions over a large extent of the Columbia River, and links migration corridor conditions to fish condition outcomes. The model is built around a mechanistic behavioral decision tree that drives individual interactions of fish within their simulated environments. By simulating several thermalscapes with alternative scenarios of thermal refuge availability, we examined how behavioral thermoregulation in cold-water refuges influenced migrating fish conditions. Outcomes of the migration corridor simulation model show that cold-water refuges can provide relief from exposure to high water temperatures, but do not substantially contribute to energy conservation by migrating adults. Simulated cooling of the Columbia River decreased reliance on cold-water refuges and there were slight reductions in migratory energy expenditure. This modeling of simulated thermalscapes provides a framework for assessing the contribution of cold-water refuges to the success of migrating fishes, but any final determination will depend on analyzing fish survival and health for their entire migration, water temperature management goals and species recovery targets.

Land use change and rodenticide exposure trump climate change as the biggest stressors to San Joaquin kit fox.

Animal and plant species often face multiple threats simultaneously. We explored the relative impact of three major threats on populations of the endangered San Joaquin kit fox. This species was once widely distributed across the southern San Joaquin Valley, California, USA, but agriculture and urban development have replaced much of its natural habitat. We modeled impacts of climate change, land-use change, and rodenticide exposure on kit fox populations using a spatially explicit, individual-based population model from 2000 to 2050 for the Central Valley, California. Our study indicates that land-use change will likely have the largest impact on kit fox populations. Land development has the potential to decrease populations by approximately 15% under a compact growth scenario in which projected population increases are accommodated within existing urban areas, and 17% under a business-as-usual scenario in which future population growth increases the developed area around urban centers. Plausible scenarios for exposure to pesticides suggest a reduction in kit fox populations by approximately 13%. By contrast, climate change has the potential to ameliorate some of these impacts. Climate-change induced vegetation shifts have the potential to increase total available kit fox habitat and could drive population increases of up to 7%. These vegetation shifts could also reduce movement barriers and create opportunities for hybridization between the endangered San Joaquin kit fox and the more widely distributed desert kit fox, found in the Mojave Desert. In contrast to these beneficial impacts, increasing climate extremes raise the probability of the kit fox population dropping below critical levels. Taken together, these results paint a complex picture of how an at-risk species is likely to respond to multiple threats.

Conservation planning for species recovery under the Endangered Species Act: A case study with the Northern Spotted Owl.

The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) was listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 1990. We applied modern spatial conservation theory and models to evaluate several candidate critical habitat networks, and sought an efficient conservation solution that encompassed the highest value lands for spotted owl recovery rather than maximizing the total area of potential critical habitat. We created a map of relative habitat suitability, which served as input to the spatial conservation prioritization program Zonation. We used the spatially-explicit individual-based population model HexSim to estimate and compare simulated spotted owl population outcomes among a suite of candidate critical habitat networks that varied in size and spatial arrangement under alternative scenarios of future habitat suitability and barred owl (S. varia) effects. We evaluated simulated spotted owl population outcomes, including total population size, and extinction and quasi-extinction likelihoods for 108 combinations of candidate critical habitat networks by habitat change by barred owl scenarios, both range-wide and within 11 distinct portions of the owl's range. Barred owl encounter rates and the amount and suitability of habitat had substantial effects on simulated spotted owl populations. When barred owl encounter rates were high, changes in the amount and suitability of habitat had minimal impacts on population performance. Under lowered barred owl encounter rates, candidate critical habitat networks that included most existing high suitability habitat supported a high likelihood of long-term population persistence. Barred owls are currently the primary driving force behind poor population performance of NSOs; however, our models demonstrated that a sufficient area of high suitability habitat remains essential for recovery when effects of barred owls can be reduced. The modeling approach we employed is sufficiently flexible to incorporate new information about spotted owls as it becomes available and could likely be applied to conservation planning for other species.

Individual Based Modelling of Fish Migration in a 2-D River System: Model Description and Case Study.

CONTEXT: Diadromous fish populations in the Pacific Northwest face challenges along their migratory routes from declining habitat quality, harvest, and barriers to longitudinal connectivity. These stressors complicate the prioritization of proposed management actions intended to improve conditions for migratory fishes including anadromous salmon and trout. OBJECTIVES: We describe a multi-scale hybrid mechanistic-probabilistic simulation model linking migration corridor conditions to fish fitness outcomes. We demonstrate the model's utility using a case study of salmon and steelhead adults in the Columbia River migration corridor exposed to spatially- and temporally-varying stressors. METHODS: The migration corridor simulation model is based on a behavioral decision tree that governs individual interactions with the environment, and an energetic submodel that estimates the hourly costs of migration. Emergent properties of the migration corridor simulation model include passage time, energy use, and survival. RESULTS: We observed that the simulated fishes' initial energy density, the migration corridor temperatures they experienced, and their history of behavioral thermoregulation were the primary determinants of their fitness outcomes. Insights gained from use of the model might be exploited to identify management interventions that increase successful migration outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This paper describes new methods that extend the suite of tools available to aquatic biologists and conservation practitioners. We have developed a 2-dimensional spatially-explicit behavioral and physiological model and illustrated how it can be used to simulate fish migration within a river system. Our model can be used to evaluate trade-offs between behavioral thermoregulation and fish fitness at population scales.

Circuit-theory applications to connectivity science and conservation.

Conservation practitioners have long recognized ecological connectivity as a global priority for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem function. In the early years of conservation science, ecologists extended principles of island biogeography to assess connectivity based on source patch proximity and other metrics derived from binary maps of habitat. From 2006 to 2008, the late Brad McRae introduced circuit theory as an alternative approach to model gene flow and the dispersal or movement routes of organisms. He posited concepts and metrics from electrical circuit theory as a robust way to quantify movement across multiple possible paths in a landscape, not just a single least-cost path or corridor. Circuit theory offers many theoretical, conceptual, and practical linkages to conservation science. We reviewed 459 recent studies citing circuit theory or the open-source software Circuitscape. We focused on applications of circuit theory to the science and practice of connectivity conservation, including topics in landscape and population genetics, movement and dispersal paths of organisms, anthropogenic barriers to connectivity, fire behavior, water flow, and ecosystem services. Circuit theory is likely to have an effect on conservation science and practitioners through improved insights into landscape dynamics, animal movement, and habitat-use studies and through the development of new software tools for data analysis and visualization. The influence of circuit theory on conservation comes from the theoretical basis and elegance of the approach and the powerful collaborations and active user community that have emerged. Circuit theory provides a springboard for ecological understanding and will remain an important conservation tool for researchers and practitioners around the globe.

Aplicaciones de la Teoría de Circuitos a la Conservación y a la Ciencia de la Conectividad Resumen Quienes practican la conservación han reconocido durante mucho tiempo que la conectividad ecológica es una prioridad mundial para la preservación de la biodiversidad y el funcionamiento del ecosistema. Durante los primeros años de la ciencia de la conservación los ecólogos difundieron los principios de la biografía de islas para evaluar la conectividad con base en la proximidad entre el origen y el fragmento, así como otras medidas derivadas de los mapas binarios de los hábitats. Entre 2006 y 2008 el fallecido Brad McRae introdujo la teoría de circuitos como una estrategia alternativa para modelar el flujo génico y la dispersión o las rutas de movimiento de los organismos. McRae propuso conceptos y medidas de la teoría de circuitos eléctricos como una manera robusta para cuantificar el movimiento a lo largo de múltiples caminos posibles en un paisaje, no solamente a lo largo de un camino o corredor de menor costo. La teoría de circuitos ofrece muchos enlaces teóricos, conceptuales y prácticos con la ciencia de la conservación. Revisamos 459 estudios recientes que citan la teoría de circuitos o el software de fuente abierta Circuitscape. Nos enfocamos en las aplicaciones de la teoría de circuitos a la ciencia y a la práctica de la conservación de la conectividad, incluyendo temas como la genética poblacional y del paisaje, movimiento y caminos de dispersión de los organismos, barreras antropogénicas de la conectividad, comportamiento ante incendios, flujo del agua, y servicios ambientales. La teoría de circuitos probablemente tenga un efecto sobre la ciencia de la conservación y quienes la practican por medio de una percepción mejorada de las dinámicas del paisaje, el movimiento animal, y los estudios de uso de hábitat, y por medio del desarrollo de nuevas herramientas de software para el análisis de datos y su visualización. La influencia de la teoría de circuitos sobre la conservación viene de la base teórica y la elegancia de la estrategia y de las colaboraciones fuertes y la comunidad activa de usuarios que han surgido recientemente. La teoría de circuitos proporciona un trampolín para el entendimiento ecológico y seguirá siendo una importante herramienta de conservación para los investigadores y practicantes en todo el mundo.

HexSim: a modeling environment for ecology and conservation.

CONTEXT: Simulation models are increasingly used in both theoretical and applied studies to explore system responses to natural and anthropogenic forcing functions, develop defensible predictions of future conditions, challenge simplifying assumptions that facilitated past research, and to train students in scientific concepts and technology. Researcher's increased use of simulation models has created a demand for new platforms that balance performance, utility, and flexibility. OBJECTIVES: We describe HexSim, a powerful new spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling framework that will have applications spanning diverse landscape settings, species, stressors, and disciplines (e.g. ecology, conservation, genetics, epidemiology). We begin with a model overview and follow-up with a discussion of key formative studies that influenced HexSim's development. We then describe specific model applications of relevance to readers of Landscape Ecology. Our goal is to introduce readers to this new modeling platform, and to provide examples characterizing its novelty and utility. CONCLUSIONS: With this publication, we conclude a >10 year development effort, and assert that our HexSim model is mature, robust, extremely well tested, and ready for adoption by the research community. The HexSim model, documentation, worked examples, and other materials can be freely obtained from the website www.hexsim.net.

Spatially-explicit model for assessing wild dog control strategies in Western Australia.

Large predators can significantly impact livestock industries. In Australia, wild dogs (Canis lupus familiaris, Canis lupus dingo, and hybrids) cause economic losses of more than AUD$40M annually. Landscape-scale exclusion fencing coupled with lethal techniques is a widely practiced control method. In Western Australia, the State Barrier Fence encompasses approximately 260,000km2 of predominantly agricultural land, but its effectiveness in preventing wild dogs from entering the agricultural region is difficult to evaluate. We conducted a management strategy evaluation (MSE) based on spatially-explicit population models to forecast the effects of upgrades to the Western Australian State Barrier Fence and several control scenarios varying in intensity and spatial extent on wild dog populations in southwest Western Australia. The model results indicate that populations of wild dogs on both sides of the State Barrier Fence are self-sustaining and current control practices are not sufficient to effectively reduce their abundance in the agricultural region. Only when a combination of control techniques is applied on a large scale, intensively and continuously are wild dog numbers effectively controlled. This study identifies the requirement for addressing extant populations of predators within fenced areas to meet the objective of preventing wild dog expansion. This objective is only achieved when control is applied to the whole area where wild dogs are currently present within the fence plus an additional buffer of ~20 km. Our modelling focused on the use of baiting, trapping and shooting; however, we acknowledge that additional tools may also be applied. Finally, we recommend that a cost-benefit analysis be performed to evaluate the economic viability of an integrated control strategy.

A multispecies test of source-sink indicators to prioritize habitat for declining populations.

For species at risk of decline or extinction in source-sink systems, sources are an obvious target for habitat protection actions. However, the way in which source habitats are identified and prioritized can reduce the effectiveness of conservation actions. Although sources and sinks are conceptually defined using both demographic and movement criteria, simplifications are often required in systems with limited data. To assess the conservation outcomes of alternative source metrics and resulting prioritizations, we simulated population dynamics and extinction risk for 3 endangered species. Using empirically based habitat population models, we linked habitat maps with measured site- or habitat-specific demographic conditions, movement abilities, and behaviors. We calculated source-sink metrics over a range of periods of data collection and prioritized consistently high-output sources for conservation. We then tested whether prioritized patches identified the habitats that most affected persistence by removing them and measuring the population response. Conservation decisions based on different source-sink metrics and durations of data collection affected species persistence. Shorter time series obscured the ability of metrics to identify influential habitats, particularly in temporally variable and slowly declining populations. Data-rich source-sink metrics that included both demography and movement information did not always identify the habitats with the greatest influence on extinction risk. In some declining populations, patch abundance better predicted influential habitats for short-term regional persistence. Because source-sink metrics (i.e., births minus deaths; births and immigrations minus deaths and emigration) describe net population conditions and cancel out gross population counts, they may not adequately identify influential habitats in declining populations. For many nonequilibrium populations, new metrics that maintain the counts of individual births, deaths, and movement may provide additional insight into habitats that most influence persistence.

SPATIAL DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS TO INFORM CONSERVATION PLANNING OF GOLDEN EAGLES IN RENEWABLE ENERGY LANDSCAPES.

Spatial demographic models can help guide monitoring and management activities targeting at-risk species, even in cases where baseline data are lacking. Here, we provide an example of how site-specific changes in land-use and other anthropogenic stressors can be incorporated into a spatial demographic model to investigate effects on population dynamics of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Our study focused on a population of Golden Eagles exposed to risks associated with rapid increases in renewable energy development in southern California, USA. We developed a spatially-explicit, individual-based simulation model that integrated empirical data on demography of Golden Eagles with spatial data on the arrangement of nesting habitats, prey resources, and planned renewable energy development sites. Our model permitted simulated eagles of different stage-classes to disperse, establish home ranges, acquire resources, prospect for breeding sites, and reproduce. The distribution of nesting habitats, prey resources, and threats within each individual's home range influenced movement, reproduction, and survival. We used our model to explore potential effects of alternative disturbance scenarios, and proposed conservation strategies, on the future distribution and abundance of Golden Eagles in the study region. Results from our simulations suggest that probable increases in mortality associated with renewable energy infrastructure (e.g., collisions with wind-turbines and vehicles, electrocution on power poles) could have negative consequences for population trajectories, but that site-specific conservation actions could reduce the magnitude of negative impacts. Our study demonstrates the use of a flexible and expandable modeling framework to incorporate spatially dependent processes when determining relative risks of proposed management options to Golden Eagles and their habitats.

Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land-use change on an endangered bird.

Climate change and land-use change are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. Land-use change has resulted in extensive habitat loss for many species. Likewise, climate change has affected many species resulting in range shifts, changes in phenology, and altered interactions. We used a spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore the effects of land-use change and climate change on a population of the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (RCW; Picoides borealis). We modeled the effects of land-use change using multiple scenarios representing different spatial arrangements of new training areas for troops across Fort Benning. We used projected climate-driven changes in habitat and changes in reproductive output to explore the potential effects of climate change. We summarized potential changes in habitat based on the output of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, run for multiple climate change scenarios through the year 2100. We projected potential changes in reproduction based on an empirical relationship between spring precipitation and the mean number of successful fledglings produced per nest attempt. As modeled in our study, climate change had virtually no effect on the RCW population. Conversely, simulated effects of land-use change resulted in the loss of up to 28 breeding pairs by 2100. However, the simulated impacts of development depended on where the development occurred and could be completely avoided if the new training areas were placed in poor-quality habitat. Our results demonstrate the flexibility inherent in many systems that allows seemingly incompatible human land uses, such as development, and conservation actions to exist side by side.

Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of source-sink dynamics.

Many factors affect the presence and exchange of individuals among subpopulations and influence not only the emergence, but the strength of ensuing source-sink dynamics within metapopulations. Yet their relative contributions remain largely unexplored. To help identify the characteristics of empirical systems that are likely to exhibit strong versus weak source-sink dynamics and inform their differential management, we compared the relative roles of influential factors in strengthening source-sink dynamics. In a series of controlled experiments within a spatially explicit individual-based model framework, we varied patch quality, patch size, the dispersion of high- and low-quality patches, population growth rates, dispersal distances, and environmental stochasticity in a factorial design. We then recorded source-sink dynamics that emerged from the simulated habitat and population factors. Long-term differences in births and deaths were quantified for sources and sinks in each system and used in a statistical model to rank the influences of key factors. Our results suggest that systems with species capable of rapid growth, occupying habitat patches with more disparate qualities, with interspersed higher- and lower-quality habitats, and that experience relatively stable environments (i.e., fewer negative perturbations) are more likely to exhibit strong source-sink dynamics. Strong source-sink dynamics emerged under diverse combinations of factors, suggesting that simple inferences of process from pattern will likely be inadequate to predict and assess the strength of source-sink dynamics. Our results also suggest that it may be more difficult to detect and accurately measure source-sink dynamics in slow-growing populations, highly variable environments, and where a subtle gradient of habitat quality exists.

Land Use as a Driver of Patterns of Rodenticide Exposure in Modeled Kit Fox Populations.

Although rodenticides are increasingly regulated, they nonetheless cause poisonings in many non-target wildlife species. Second-generation anticoagulant rodenticide use is common in agricultural and residential landscapes. Here, we use an individual-based population model to assess potential population-wide effects of rodenticide exposures on the endangered San Joaquin kit fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica). We estimate likelihood of rodenticide exposure across the species range for each land cover type based on a database of reported pesticide use and literature. Using a spatially-explicit population model, we find that 36% of modeled kit foxes are likely exposed, resulting in a 7-18% decline in the range-wide modeled kit fox population that can be linked to rodenticide use. Exposures of kit foxes in low-density developed areas accounted for 70% of the population-wide exposures to rodenticides. We conclude that exposures of non-target kit foxes could be greatly mitigated by reducing the use of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides in low-density developed areas near vulnerable populations.

Divergence in sink contributions to population persistence.

Population sinks present unique conservation challenges. The loss of individuals in sinks can compromise persistence; but conversely, sinks can improve viability by improving connectivity and facilitating the recolonization of vacant sources. To assess the contribution of sinks to regional population persistence of declining populations, we simulated source-sink dynamics for 3 very different endangered species: Black-capped Vireos (Vireo atricapilla) at Fort Hood, Texas, Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii) in Alberta, and Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in the northwestern United States. We used empirical data from these case studies to parameterize spatially explicit individual-based models. We then used the models to quantify population abundance and persistence with and without long-term sinks. The contributions of sink habitats varied widely. Sinks were detrimental, particularly when they functioned as strong sinks with few emigrants in declining populations (e.g., Alberta's Ord's kangaroo rat) and benign in robust populations (e.g., Black-capped Vireos) when Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism was controlled. Sinks, including ecological traps, were also crucial in delaying declines when there were few sources (e.g., in Black-capped Vireo populations with no Cowbird control). Sink contributions were also nuanced. For example, sinks that supported large, variable populations were subject to greater extinction risk (e.g., Northern Spotted Owls). In each of our case studies, new context-dependent sinks emerged, underscoring the dynamic nature of sources and sinks and the need for frequent re-assessment. Our results imply that management actions based on assumptions that sink habitats are generally harmful or helpful risk undermining conservation efforts for declining populations.

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models.

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco-evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco-evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco-evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco-evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.

How interactions between animal movement and landscape processes modify local range dynamics and extinction risk.

Forecasts of range dynamics now incorporate many of the mechanisms and interactions that drive species distributions. However, connectivity continues to be simulated using overly simple distance-based dispersal models with little consideration of how the individual behaviour of dispersing organisms interacts with landscape structure (functional connectivity). Here, we link an individual-based model to a niche-population model to test the implications of this omission. We apply this novel approach to a turtle species inhabiting wetlands which are patchily distributed across a tropical savannah, and whose persistence is threatened by two important synergistic drivers of global change: predation by invasive species and overexploitation. We show that projections of local range dynamics in this study system change substantially when functional connectivity is modelled explicitly. Accounting for functional connectivity in model simulations causes the estimate of extinction risk to increase, and predictions of range contraction to slow. We conclude that models of range dynamics that simulate functional connectivity can reduce an important source of bias in predictions of shifts in species distributions and abundances, especially for organisms whose dispersal behaviours are strongly affected by landscape structure.