The Hindu Kush slab break-off as revealed by deep structure and crustal deformation.

Break-off of part of the down-going plate during continental collision occurs due to tensile stresses built-up between the deep and shallow slab, for which buoyancy is increased because of continental-crust subduction. Break-off governs the subsequent orogenic evolution but real-time observations are rare as it happens over geologically short times. Here we present a finite-frequency tomography, based on jointly inverted local and remote earthquakes, for the Hindu Kush in Afghanistan, where slab break-off is ongoing. We interpret our results as crustal subduction on top of a northwards-subducting Indian lithospheric slab, whose penetration depth increases along-strike while thinning and steepening. This implies that break-off is propagating laterally and that the highest lithospheric stretching rates occur during the final pinching-off. In the Hindu Kush crust, earthquakes and geodetic data show a transition from focused to distributed deformation, which we relate to a variable degree of crust-mantle coupling presumably associated with break-off at depth.

Months-long thousand-kilometre-scale wobbling before great subduction earthquakes.

Megathrust earthquakes are responsible for some of the most devastating natural disasters1. To better understand the physical mechanisms of earthquake generation, subduction zones worldwide are continuously monitored with geophysical instrumentation. One key strategy is to install stations that record signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems2,3 (GNSS), enabling us to track the non-steady surface motion of the subducting and overriding plates before, during and after the largest events4-6. Here we use a recently developed trajectory modelling approach7 that is designed to isolate secular tectonic motions from the daily GNSS time series to show that the 2010 Maule, Chile (moment magnitude 8.8) and 2011 Tohoku-oki, Japan (moment magnitude 9.0) earthquakes were preceded by reversals of 4-8 millimetres in surface displacement that lasted several months and spanned thousands of kilometres. Modelling of the surface displacement reversal that occurred before the Tohoku-oki earthquake suggests an initial slow slip followed by a sudden pulldown of the Philippine Sea slab so rapid that it caused a viscoelastic rebound across the whole of Japan. Therefore, to understand better when large earthquakes are imminent, we must consider not only the evolution of plate interface frictional processes but also the dynamic boundary conditions from deeper subduction processes, such as sudden densification of metastable slab.

Earthquake segmentation in northern Chile correlates with curved plate geometry.

We performed an integrated analysis of the coseismic slip, afterslip and aftershock activity of the 2014 Mw 8.1 Pisagua earthquake. This earthquake seems to be spatially located between two major historical earthquakes, the 1868 Mw 8.8 earthquake in southern Peru and the 1877 Mw 8.5 earthquake in northern Chile. Continuous GPS data were used to model the coseismic slip of the mainshock and the largest aftershock (Mw 7.6). The afterslip was modeled for 273 days (end of year 2014) after the largest aftershock, revealing two patches of afterslip: a southern patch between the mainshock and the largest aftershock and a patch to the north of the mainshock. Observations from the seismic network indicate that aftershocks were concentrated near the southern patch. Conversely, the northern patch contained hardly any aftershocks, indicating a dominant aseismic slip. The Pisagua earthquake occurred within a prominent, curved section of the Andean subduction zone. This section may have acted as a barrier for the largest historical earthquakes and as an isolated segment during the Pisagua earthquake.

Gradual unlocking of plate boundary controlled initiation of the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

On 1 April 2014, Northern Chile was struck by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake following a protracted series of foreshocks. The Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile monitored the entire sequence of events, providing unprecedented resolution of the build-up to the main event and its rupture evolution. Here we show that the Iquique earthquake broke a central fraction of the so-called northern Chile seismic gap, the last major segment of the South American plate boundary that had not ruptured in the past century. Since July 2013 three seismic clusters, each lasting a few weeks, hit this part of the plate boundary with earthquakes of increasing peak magnitudes. Starting with the second cluster, geodetic observations show surface displacements that can be associated with slip on the plate interface. These seismic clusters and their slip transients occupied a part of the plate interface that was transitional between a fully locked and a creeping portion. Leading up to this earthquake, the b value of the foreshocks gradually decreased during the years before the earthquake, reversing its trend a few days before the Iquique earthquake. The mainshock finally nucleated at the northern end of the foreshock area, which skirted a locked patch, and ruptured mainly downdip towards higher locking. Peak slip was attained immediately downdip of the foreshock region and at the margin of the locked patch. We conclude that gradual weakening of the central part of the seismic gap accentuated by the foreshock activity in a zone of intermediate seismic coupling was instrumental in causing final failure, distinguishing the Iquique earthquake from most great earthquakes. Finally, only one-third of the gap was broken and the remaining locked segments now pose a significant, increased seismic hazard with the potential to host an earthquake with a magnitude of >8.5.