How Category Selection Impacts Inference Reliability: Inheritance Inference From an Ecological Perspective.

This article presents results from a simulation-based study of inheritance inference, that is, inference from the typicality of a property among a "base" class to its typicality among a subclass of the class. The study aims to ascertain which kinds of inheritance inferences are reliable, with attention to the dependence of their reliability upon the type of environment in which inferences are made. For example, the study addresses whether inheritance inference is reliable in the case of "exceptional subclasses" (i.e., subclasses that are known to be atypical in some respect) and attends to variations in reliability that result from variations in the entropy level of the environment. A further goal of the study is to show that the reliability of inheritance inference depends crucially on which sorts of base classes are used in making inferences. One approach to inheritance inference treats the extension of any atomic predicate as a suitable base class. A second approach identifies suitable base classes with the cells of a partition (of a preselected size k) of the domain of objects that satisfies the condition of maximizing the similarity of objects that are assigned to the same class. In addition to permitting more inferences, our study shows that the second approach results in inheritance inferences that are far more reliable, particularly in the case of exceptional subclasses.

The material theory of object-induction and the universal optimality of meta-induction: Two complementary accounts.

This paper brings together two accounts of induction that appear to be in opposition: John Norton's material account of induction (2003, 2010, manuscript) and Schurz' account of the universal optimality of meta-induction (2008, 2017, 2019). According to the material account of induction, all reliable rules of 'induction' are local and context-dependent. Here "induction" is understood in the sense of object-induction, i.e., induction applied at the object-level of events. In contrast, Schurz' account proceeds from the demonstration that there are universally optimal rules of meta-induction, i.e., rules of induction applied at the level of competing methods of prediction, including methods of object-induction. The two accounts are not in opposition; on the contrary, they agree on most questions related to the problem of induction. Beyond this agreement the two accounts are complementary: the material account suffers from a justificational circularity or regress problem that the meta-induction account can solve. On the other hand, the meta-inductive account abstracts from domain-specific aspects of object-induction that are supplied by the material account.

The Role of Reasoning and Pragmatics in the Modifier Effect.

The modifier effect refers to the fact that the perceived likelihood of a property in a noun category is diminished if the noun is modified. For example, "Pigs live on farms" is rated as more likely than "Dirty pigs live on farms." The modifier effect has been demonstrated in many studies, but the underlying cognitive mechanisms are still unclear. This paper reports two series of experiments that jointly point to the conclusion that the modifier effect is the result of a superposition of three cognitive mechanisms: (a) probabilistically softened default inheritance, (b) pragmatic implicatures due to Gricean relevance assumptions, and (c) inference based on world knowledge. We present evidence that the pragmatic effects operate largely on an unconscious level and that their influence can be reduced by changing the presentation format of the cognitive task.

Cognitive Success: A Consequentialist Account of Rationality in Cognition.

One of the most discussed issues in psychology-presently and in the past-is how to define and measure the extent to which human cognition is rational. The rationality of human cognition is often evaluated in terms of normative standards based on a priori intuitions. Yet this approach has been challenged by two recent developments in psychology that we review in this article: ecological rationality and descriptivism. Going beyond these contributions, we consider it a good moment for psychologists and philosophers to join forces and work toward a new foundation for the definition of rational cognition. We take a first step in this direction by proposing that the rationality of both cognitive and normative systems can be measured in terms of their cognitive success. Cognitive success can be defined and gauged in terms of two factors: ecological validity (the system's validity in conditions in which it is applicable) and the system's applicability (the scope of conditions under which it can be applied). As we show, prominent systems of reasoning-deductive reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, uncertain conditionals, and prediction and choice-perform rather differently on these two factors. Furthermore, we demonstrate that conceptualizing rationality according to its cognitive success offers a new perspective on the time-honored relationship between the descriptive ("is") and the normative ("ought") in psychology and philosophy.

Bayesian pseudo-confirmation, use-novelty, and genuine confirmation.

According to the comparative Bayesian concept of confirmation, rationalized versions of creationism come out as empirically confirmed. From a scientific viewpoint, however, they are pseudo-explanations because with their help all kinds of experiences are explainable in an ex-post fashion, by way of ad-hoc fitting of an empirically empty theoretical framework to the given evidence. An alternative concept of confirmation that attempts to capture this intuition is the use novelty (UN) criterion of confirmation. Serious objections have been raised against this criterion. In this paper I suggest solutions to these objections. Based on them, I develop an account of genuine confirmation that unifies the UN-criterion with a refined probabilistic confirmation concept that is explicated in terms of the confirmation of evidence-transcending content parts of the hypothesis.

Cognitive success: instrumental justifications of normative systems of reasoning.

In the first part of the paper (sec. 1-4), I argue that Elqayam and Evan's (2011) distinction between normative and instrumental conceptions of cognitive rationality corresponds to deontological vs. teleological accounts in meta-ethics. I suggest that Elqayam and Evans' distinction be replaced by the distinction between a-priori intuition-based vs. a-posteriori success-based accounts of cognitive rationality. The value of cognitive success lies in its instrumental rationality for almost-all practical purposes. In the second part (sec. 5-7), I point out that the Elqayam and Evans's distinction between normative and instrumental rationality is coupled with a second distinction: between logically general vs. locally adaptive accounts of rationality. I argue that these are two independent distinctions that should be treated as independent dimensions. I also demonstrate that logically general systems of reasoning can be instrumentally justified. However, such systems can only be cognitively successful if they are paired with successful inductive reasoning, which is the area where the program of adaptive (ecological) rationality emerged, because there are no generally optimal inductive reasoning methods. I argue that the practical necessity of reasoning under changing environments constitutes a dilemma for ecological rationality, which I attempt to solve within a dual account of rationality.