Evaluating combined effects of pesticide and crop nutrition (with N, P, K and Si) on weevil damage in East African Highland Bananas.

Banana weevil (Cosmopolites sordidus, Germar) is a major pest in East African Highland Banana. The influence of crop nutritional status on weevil damage is poorly understood. Nutrient availability affects the nutritional quality of plants for weevils and may affect weevil damage. Here, we evaluate the effect of insecticides alone and in combination with fertilisers (N, P, K and Si) on weevil damage using data from two experiments in central and southwest Uganda. In the first experiment, we varied chlorpyrifos and application rates of N, P and K. In the second experiment, we varied the application rates of K and Si. Treatment effects were analysed using generalised linear mixed models with a negative binomial distribution. In the first experiment, chlorpyrifos reduced and N increased weevil damage, while P and K had no significant effect. In the K or Si application rates reduced weevil damage compared with the control. We conclude that the combined application of chlorpyrifos with K and Si fertilisers can contribute to weevil damage control on sites with low nutrient availability and should form part of integrated weevil management in bananas. Future studies should assess how much reduction in insecticide use is possible in EAHB with judicious input rates.

High species diversity and turnover in granite inselberg floras highlight the need for a conservation strategy protecting many outcrops.

Determining patterns of plant diversity on granite inselbergs is an important task for conservation biogeography due to mounting threats. However, beyond the tropics there are relatively few quantitative studies of floristic diversity, or consideration of these patterns and their environmental, biogeographic, and historical correlates for conservation. We sought to contribute broader understanding of global patterns of species diversity on granite inselbergs and inform biodiversity conservation in the globally significant Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). We surveyed floristics from 16 inselbergs (478 plots) across the climate gradient of the SWAFR stratified into three major habitats on each outcrop. We recorded 1,060 species from 92 families. At the plot level, local soil and topographic variables affecting aridity were correlated with species richness in herbaceous (HO) and woody vegetation (WO) of soil-filled depressions, but not in woody vegetation on deeper soils at the base of outcrops (WOB). At the outcrop level, bioclimatic variables affecting aridity were correlated with species richness in two habitats (WO and WOB) but, contrary to predictions from island biogeography, were not correlated with inselberg area and isolation in any of the three habitats. Species turnover in each of the three habitats was also influenced by aridity, being correlated with bioclimatic variables and with interplot geographic distance, and for HO and WO habitats with local site variables. At the outcrop level, species replacement was the dominant component of species turnover in each of the three habitats, consistent with expectations for long-term stable landscapes. Our results therefore highlight high species diversity and turnover associated with granite outcrop flora. Hence, effective conservation strategies will need to focus on protecting multiple inselbergs across the entire climate gradient of the region.

A low-altitude mountain range as an important refugium for two narrow endemics in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region biodiversity hotspot.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Low-altitude mountains constitute important centres of diversity in landscapes with little topographic variation, such as the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). They also provide unique climatic and edaphic conditions that may allow them to function as refugia. We investigate whether the Porongurups (altitude 655 m) in the SWAFR will provide a refugium for the endemic Ornduffia calthifolia and O. marchantii under forecast climate change. METHODS: We used species distribution modelling based on WorldClim climatic data, 30-m elevation data and a 2-m-resolution LiDAR-derived digital elevation model (DEM) to predict current and future distributions of the Ornduffia species at local and regional scales based on 605 field-based abundance estimates. Future distributions were forecast using RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 projections. To determine whether local edaphic and biotic factors impact these forecasts, we tested whether soil depth and vegetation height were significant predictors of abundance using generalized additive models (GAMs). KEY RESULTS: Species distribution modelling revealed the importance of elevation and topographic variables at the local scale for determining distributions of both species, which also preferred shadier locations and higher slopes. However, O. calthifolia occurred at higher (cooler) elevations with rugged, concave topography, while O. marchantii occurred in disturbed sites at lower locations with less rugged, convex topography. Under future climates both species are likely to severely contract under the milder RCP2.6 projection (approx. 2 °C of global warming), but are unlikely to persist if warming is more severe (RCP4.5). GAMs showed that soil depth and vegetation height are important predictors of O. calthifolia and O. marchantii distributions, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Porongurups constitute an important refugium for O. calthifolia and O. marchantii, but limits to this capacity may be reached if global warming exceeds 2 °C. This capacity is moderated at local scales by biotic and edaphic factors.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

Rapid characterisation of vegetation structure to predict refugia and climate change impacts across a global biodiversity hotspot.

Identification of refugia is an increasingly important adaptation strategy in conservation planning under rapid anthropogenic climate change. Granite outcrops (GOs) provide extraordinary diversity, including a wide range of taxa, vegetation types and habitats in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). However, poor characterization of GOs limits the capacity of conservation planning for refugia under climate change. A novel means for the rapid identification of potential refugia is presented, based on the assessment of local-scale environment and vegetation structure in a wider region. This approach was tested on GOs across the SWAFR. Airborne discrete return Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data and Red Green and Blue (RGB) imagery were acquired. Vertical vegetation profiles were used to derive 54 structural classes. Structural vegetation types were described in three areas for supervised classification of a further 13 GOs across the region. Habitat descriptions based on 494 vegetation plots on and around these GOs were used to quantify relationships between environmental variables, ground cover and canopy height. The vegetation surrounding GOs is strongly related to structural vegetation types (Kappa = 0.8) and to its spatial context. Water gaining sites around GOs are characterized by taller and denser vegetation in all areas. The strong relationship between rainfall, soil-depth, and vegetation structure (R(2) of 0.8-0.9) allowed comparisons of vegetation structure between current and future climate. Significant shifts in vegetation structural types were predicted and mapped for future climates. Water gaining areas below granite outcrops were identified as important putative refugia. A reduction in rainfall may be offset by the occurrence of deeper soil elsewhere on the outcrop. However, climate change interactions with fire and water table declines may render our conclusions conservative. The LiDAR-based mapping approach presented enables the integration of site-based biotic assessment with structural vegetation types for the rapid delineation and prioritization of key refugia.