Exploring Winegrowers' Behaviours and Ecological Impacts Under Climate Change and Policy Scenarios-Examples from Three European Winegrowing Regions.

Viticulture is an example of a socio-ecological system that poses serious challenges for sustainable soil management and pesticide use, with various interactions between winegrowers' decision-making and ecological consequences. This study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) on winegrowers' decision on inter-row management and pesticide use. The ABM builds upon an empirical study of winegrowers' decision-making in European viticultural landscapes and has been built for three case study regions: Leithaberg (Austria), Palatinate (Germany) and Târnave (Romania). The ABM allows for analysing potential effects of policy instruments including mandatory vegetation cover in the inter-rows, the reduction of fungicide use and ban of insecticides against Lobesia botrana. The effects of policies differ between the case study regions, indicating how important the local context is for effective policies. For example, policies aiming at higher inter-row vegetation cover had the strongest effects on vegetation cover, landscape aesthetics and soil loss in Târnave since many vineyards are currently intensively tilled and there exist no policies supporting inter-row vegetation cover in Romania.

From individual Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Agent Based Models: Modeling multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision-making for water scarcity.

Policy making for complex Social-Ecological Systems (SESs) is a multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision making process. Therefore, proper policy simulation in a SES should consider both the complex behavior of the system and the multi-stakeholders' interventions into the system, which requires integrated methodological approaches. In this study, we simulate impacts of policy options on a farming community facing water scarcity in Rafsanjan, Iran, using an integrated modeling methodology combining an Agent Based Model (ABM) with Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM). First, the behavioral rules of farmers and the causal relations among environmental variables are captured with FCMs that are developed with both qualitative and quantitative data, i.e. farmers' knowledge and empirical data from studies. Then, an ABM is developed to model decisions and actions of farmers and simulate their impacts on overall groundwater use and emigration of farmers in this case study. Finally, the impacts of different policy options are simulated and compared with a baseline scenario. The results suggest that a policy of facilitating farmers' participation in management and control of their groundwater use leads to the highest reduction of groundwater use and would help to secure farmers' activities in Rafsanjan. Our approach covers four main aspects that are crucial for policy simulation in SESs: 1) causal relationships, 2) feedback mechanisms, 3) social-spatial heterogeneity and 4) temporal dynamics. This approach is particularly useful for ex-ante policy options analysis.

The Bigger, the Better? The Influence of Urban Green Space Design on Cooling Effects for Residential Areas.

It is well known that the cooling effect of an urban green space extends into its surroundings, cooling the immediate environment and mitigating urban heat problems. However, the effects of size, shape, and type of an urban green space on cooling remain uncertain. The objectives of our study were to quantify and compare the strength of the cooling effects of urban parks and forests, to determine how far the cooling effects extend into the surrounding residential environment, and to better understand how temperature gradients are driven by physical characteristics of the green space and the surroundings. Mobile air temperature measurements were performed in 62 urban parks and forests in the city of Leipzig, Germany, in the summer of 2013. Three indicators of cooling were calculated: the change in temperature (ΔT) at the park-width distance, the maximum ΔT, and the cooling distance. The relationships of these variables to the physical characteristics of the green spaces and their surroundings were examined in multiple regression models. Analyzing all three indicators revealed that cooling effects were greater in urban forests than in parks. Cooling increased with increasing size but in a different manner for forests and parks, whereas the influence of shape was the same for forests and parks. Generally, the characteristics of the green spaces were more important than the characteristics of the residential surroundings. These findings have the potential to assist in better planning and designing of urban green spaces to increase their cooling effects.

A quantitative review of urban ecosystem service assessments: concepts, models, and implementation.

Although a number of comprehensive reviews have examined global ecosystem services (ES), few have focused on studies that assess urban ecosystem services (UES). Given that more than half of the world's population lives in cities, understanding the dualism of the provision of and need for UES is of critical importance. Which UES are the focus of research, and what types of urban land use are examined? Are models or decision support systems used to assess the provision of UES? Are trade-offs considered? Do studies of UES engage stakeholders? To address these questions, we analyzed 217 papers derived from an ISI Web of Knowledge search using a set of standardized criteria. The results indicate that most UES studies have been undertaken in Europe, North America, and China, at city scale. Assessment methods involve bio-physical models, Geographical Information Systems, and valuation, but few study findings have been implemented as land use policy.