ABSTRACT
When treating HCV patients with conventional dual therapy in the current context of rapidly evolving HCV therapy, outcome prediction is crucial and HCV kinetics, as early as 48 hours after the start of treatment, may play a major role. We aimed at clarifying the role of HCV very early kinetics. We consecutively enrolled mono-infected HCV patients at 7 treatment sites in Central Italy and evaluated the predictive value of logarithmic decay of HCV RNA 48 hours after the start of dual therapy (Delta48). Among the 171 enrolled patients, 144 were evaluable for early and sustained virological response (EVR, SVR) prediction; 108 (75.0%) reached EVR and 84 (58.3%) reached SVR. Mean Delta 48 was 1.68 ± 1.22 log10 IU/ml, being higher in patients with SVR and EVR. Those genotype-1 patients experiencing a Delta 48 >2 logs showed a very high chance of success (100% positive predictive value), even in the absence of rapid virological response (RVR). Evaluation of very early HCV kinetics helped identify a small but significant proportion of genotype-1 patients (close to 10%) in addition to those identified with RVR, who could be treated with dual therapy in spite of not reaching RVR. In the current European context, whereby sustainability of HCV therapy is a crucial issue, conventional dual therapy may still play a reasonable role in patients with good tolerance and early prediction of success.
