Identification of maladaptive behavioural patterns in response to extreme weather events.

Human behaviour has gained recognition as a critical factor in addressing climate change and its impacts. With extreme weather events posing risks to vulnerable communities, understanding cognitive processes driving behaviours becomes essential for effective risk communication. This study focuses on the 2018 "Vaia" storm, which brought unprecedented precipitation and wind velocity to the mountainous regions of North-eastern Italy. Drawing upon the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) framework, we employ probabilistic models to identify distinct groups with similar behavioural profiles. By administering a web-based survey to 1500 residents affected by the event, we find that threat appraisal is more influential in shaping protective behaviours than coping appraisal. Our findings indicate that by enhancing coping appraisals and discouraging non-protective measures, we can actively mitigate maladaptive responses and promote the adoption of effective adaptation strategies.

Transformative adaptation through nature-based solutions: a comparative case study analysis in China, Italy, and Germany.

This paper explores how claims for transformative adaptation toward more equitable and sustainable societies can be assessed. We build on a theoretical framework describing transformative adaptation as it manifests across four core elements of the public-sector adaptation lifecycle: vision, planning, institutional frameworks, and interventions. For each element, we identify characteristics that can help track adaptation as transformative. Our purpose is to identify how governance systems can constrain or support transformative choices and thus enable targeted interventions. We demonstrate and test the usefulness of the framework with reference to three government-led adaptation projects of nature-based solutions (NBS): river restoration (Germany), forest conservation (China), and landslide risk reduction (Italy). Building on a desktop study and open-ended interviews, our analysis adds evidence to the view that transformation is not an abrupt system change, but a dynamic complex process that evolves over time. While each of the NBS cases fails to fulfill all the transformation characteristics, there are important transformative elements in their visions, planning, and interventions. There is a deficit, however, in the transformation of institutional frameworks. The cases show institutional commonalities in multi-scale and cross-sectoral (polycentric) collaboration as well as innovative processes for inclusive stakeholder engagement; yet, these arrangements are ad hoc, short-term, dependent on local champions, and lacking the permanency needed for upscaling. For the public sector, this result highlights the potential for establishing cross-competing priorities among agencies, cross-sectoral formal mechanisms, new dedicated institutions, and programmatic and regulatory mainstreaming. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02066-7.

Rethinking the interplay between affluence and vulnerability to aid climate change adaptive capacity.

Affluence and vulnerability are often seen as opposite sides of a coin-with affluence generally understood as reducing forms of vulnerability through increased resilience and adaptive capacity. However, in the context of climate change and an increase in associated hazards and disasters, we suggest the need to re-examine this dynamic relationship-a complex association we define here as the Affluence-Vulnerability Interface (AVI). We review research in different national contexts to show how a more nuanced understanding of the AVI can (a) problematize the notion that increasing material affluence necessarily has a mitigating influence on social vulnerability, (b) extend our analysis of social vulnerability beyond low-income regions to include affluent contexts and (c) improve our understanding of how psychosocial characteristics influence people's vulnerability. Finally, we briefly outline three methodological approaches that we believe will assist future engagement with the AVI.

Simulating synergies between Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction stakeholders to improve management of transboundary disasters in Europe.

Natural hazards and climate-related disasters disregard political borders, where additional barriers can complicate mitigation, response and recovery efforts within and between the sectors of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The ESPREssO Project (Enhancing Synergies for Disaster Prevention in the European Union) aims to improve management of transboundary disasters by encouraging closer synergies between the CCA and DRR communities. Using targeted stakeholder interviews, questionnaires, Think Tank discussions and purpose-built serious games, ESPREssO draws on both CCA and DRR stakeholder experiences and informed perspectives in order to identify current gaps. Set within a fictitious border zone, ESPREssO's RAMSETE II serious game challenges CCA and DRR stakeholders in making coordinated decisions before, during and after a simulated disaster, in protection of population and critical infrastructure. Results highlight the essential role of local governance mechanisms as the sharp end of the policy wedge, with current examples of proactivity that require to be championed and supported at national level in order to thrive. These good practice examples reflect the fact that transboundary settings, despite their challenges, act as fertile ground for mutual growth, offering opportunities for CCA and DRR communities to find innovative ways to cooperate and unite in developing synergies and strengthening their mutual efforts towards resilience. Stakeholders emphasise a need to invest more resources in informal cooperation and call on policy makers to recognise that each border zone raises its own unique set of complex challenges that requires flexibility and special consideration by transboundary authorities in management of disasters.

The views of experts and residents on social vulnerability to flash floods in an Alpine region of Italy.

This paper reports on research work performed for Floodsite a European Community-funded project on the social aspects of vulnerability in the Adige/Sarca river basin of the Trentino-Alto Adige region, Italy. It identifies some limitations to the use of a fixed set of indicators, which fail to account for either local peculiarities or the intangible aspects that contribute to the shaping of social vulnerability. The authors employed a number of methods to investigate the opinions of professionals and residents on risk and safety, distinguishing between the individual and the institutional components of social vulnerability. Adopting a systemic perspective, they explored the interactions between these two elements, showing how they may give rise to unexpected phenomena. The 'safety paradox' and the 'efficiency paradox' are discussed, emerging when increased protection provided by structural devices and dedicated institutions translates into a lack of awareness and agency on the part of residents.