The anthroposphere as an anticipatory system: Open questions on steering the climate.

Climate change research and action counteracting it affect everyone and would involve cross-societal transformations reshaping the anthroposphere in its entirety. Scrutinizing climate-related science and policies, we recognize attempts to steer the evolution of climate according to expected (or modelled) futures. Such attempts would turn the anthroposphere into a large "anticipatory system", in which human society seeks to anticipate and, possibly, to govern climate dynamics. The chief aim of this discussion paper is to open a critical debate on the climate change paradigm (CCP) drawing on a strategic and systemic framework grounded in the concept of anticipatory system sensu Rosen (1991). The proposed scheme is ambitiously intended to turn an intricate issue into a complex but structured problem that is to say, to make such complexity clear and manageable. This framework emerges from concepts borrowed from different scientific fields (including future studies and system dynamics) and its background lies in a simple quantitative literature overview, relying upon a broad level of analysis. The proposed framework will assist researchers and policy makers in thinking of CCP in terms of an anticipatory system, and in disentangling its interrelated (and sometimes intricate) aspects. In point of fact, several strategic questions related to CCP were not subjected to an adequate transdisciplinary discussion: what are the interplays between physical processes and social-political interventions, who is the observer (what he/she is looking for), and which paradigm is being used (or who defines the desirable future). The proposed scheme allows to structure such various topics in an arrangement which is easier to communicate, highlighting the linkages in between, and making them intelligible and open to verification and discussion. Furthermore, ideally developments will help scientists and policy makers address the strategic gaps between the evidence-based climatological assessments and the plurality of possible answers as applied to the geopolitical contingencies.

Ecosystem services-based SWOT analysis of protected areas for conservation strategies.

An ecosystem services-based SWOT analysis is proposed in order to identify and quantify internal and external factors supporting or threatening the conservation effectiveness of protected areas. The proposed approach concerns both the ecological and the social perspective. Strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats were evaluated based on 12 selected environmental and socio-economic indicators for all terrestrial Italian protected areas, belonging to the Natura 2000 network, and for their 5-km buffer area. The indicators, used as criteria within a multi-criteria assessment, include: core area, cost-distance between protected areas, changes in ecosystem services values, intensification of land use, and urbanization. The results were aggregated for three biogeographical regions, Alpine, Continental, and Mediterranean, indicating that Alpine sites have more opportunities and strengths than Continental and Mediterranean sites. The results call attention to where connectivity and land-use changes may have stronger influence on protected areas, in particular, whereas urbanization or intensification of agriculture may hamper conservation goals of protected areas. The proposed SWOT analysis provides helpful information for a multiple scale perspective and for identifying conservation priorities and for defining management strategies to assure biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services provision.

Spatial rule-based assessment of habitat potential to predict impact of land use changes on biodiversity at municipal scale.

In human dominated landscapes, ecosystems are under increasing pressures caused by urbanization and infrastructure development. In Alpine valleys remnant natural areas are increasingly affected by habitat fragmentation and loss. In these contexts, there is a growing risk of local extinction for wildlife populations; hence assessing the consequences on biodiversity of proposed land use changes is extremely important. The article presents a methodology to assess the impacts of land use changes on target species at a local scale. The approach relies on the application of ecological profiles of target species for habitat potential (HP) assessment, using high resolution GIS-data within a multiple level framework. The HP, in this framework, is based on a species-specific assessment of the suitability of a site, as well of surrounding areas. This assessment is performed through spatial rules, structured as sets of queries on landscape objects. We show that by considering spatial dependencies in habitat assessment it is possible to perform better quantification of impacts of local-level land use changes on habitats.