What might working from home mean for the geography of work and commuting in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, Canada?

The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the precarity of urban society, illustrating both opportunities and challenges. Teleworking rates increased dramatically during the pandemic and may be sustained over the long term. For transportation planners, these changes belie the broader questions of how the geography of work and commuting will change based on pandemic-induced shifts in teleworking and what this will mean for society and policymaking. This study focuses on these questions by using survey data (n = 2580) gathered in the autumn of 2021 to explore the geography of current and prospective telework. The study focuses on the Greater Golden Horseshoe, the mega-region in Southern Ontario, representing a fifth of Canadians. Survey data document telework practices before and during the pandemic, including prospective future telework practices. Inferential models are used to develop working-from-home scenarios which are allocated spatially based on respondents' locations of work and residence. Findings indicate that telework appears to be poised to increase most relative to pre-pandemic levels around downtown Toronto based on locations of work, but increases in teleworking are more dispersed based on employees' locations of residence. Contrary to expectations by many, teleworking is not significantly linked to home-work disconnect - suggesting that telework is poised to weaken the commute-housing trade-off embedded in bid rent theory. Together, these results portend a poor outlook for downtown urban agglomeration economies but also more nuanced impacts than simply inducing sprawl.

Barriers to Walking: An Investigation of Adults in Hamilton (Ontario, Canada).

This study investigates perceived barriers to walking using data collected from 179 randomly-selected adults between the ages of 18 and 92 in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. A survey (Hamilton Active Living Study) asked questions about socio-demographics, walking, and barriers to walking. A series of binary logit models are estimated for twenty potential barriers to walking. The results demonstrate that different barriers are associated with different sub-groups of the population. Females, senior citizens, and those with a higher body mass index identify the most barriers to walking, while young adults, parents, driver's license owners, and bus pass owners identify the fewest barriers. Understanding who is affected by perceived barriers can help policy makers and health promotion agencies target sub-groups of the population in an effort to increase walking.

A geography of moral hazard: sources and sinks of motor-vehicle commuting externalities.

Motor-vehicles are responsible for harms to health that are not directly experienced by individual drivers - such as air pollution and risk of injury to pedestrians. In addition to their direct effects on health, these harms also represent a moral hazard since drivers are not required to consider their effects as part of their decision to drive. We describe an approach for estimating sources of motor-vehicle commuter externalities as a means of understanding the geography of moral hazard, and in particular, the spatial displacement of negative health externalities associated with motor-vehicle commuting. This approach models motor-vehicle commuter traffic flow by trip origin for small geographic areas within the City of Toronto, Ontario. We find that most health-related externalities associated with motor-vehicle commuters are not locally generated, with a large share coming from outside Toronto. Low income is associated with externalities originating outside the municipal boundary, but not with locally sourced externalities. We discuss the impact of geographical moral hazard on the agency of citizens as well as policy options aimed at addressing motor-vehicle externalities.

Altering school attendance times to prevent child pedestrian injuries.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this research was to determine whether modifying school start time schedules can be used to reduce children's exposure to traffic on their morning walks to school. METHODS: We use models of pedestrian and motor vehicle commuting to estimate the frequency of encounters between child pedestrians and motor vehicles at intersections throughout the City of Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. We use a simple heuristic to identify the school-specific start times that would most reduce the local frequency of encounters between motor vehicles and pedestrians. RESULTS: Our analysis suggests that it may be possible to achieve an almost 15 percent reduction in the total number of encounters between child pedestrians and motor vehicles during the morning commute by staggering school start times such that the periods of high pedestrian activity are temporally staggered from periods of high motor vehicle activity. Our analysis suggests that small changes in school start times could be sufficient to see noteworthy reductions in pedestrian exposure to traffic. CONCLUSIONS: Changing school times may be an effective, inexpensive, and practical tool for reducing child pedestrian injuries in urban environments. Enhanced transportation models and community-based interventions are natural next steps for exploring the use of school-specific scheduling to reduce the risk of child pedestrian injury. Further research is required to validate our models before this analysis should be used by policy makers.

The effects of local and non-local traffic on child pedestrian safety: a spatial displacement of risk.

In most places, motor-vehicle traffic volume is associated with increased risk of child pedestrian injury; however, the burden of risk is geographically complex. In some neighbourhoods, proportionally fewer drivers may be local, meaning that the moral and practical responsibility of risk to children is displaced from one place (e.g., the suburbs) to another (e.g., downtown). Using the City of Toronto, Canada, as a case study, this research asks two related questions: 1) what is the variation in traffic volume by neighbourhood of origin and socioeconomic status and 2) what is the relationship between the geographical origin of traffic and the risk of collisions involving child pedestrians and motor-vehicles? We find that low-income downtown neighbourhoods have the highest proportion of non-local traffic. We also find that while higher local traffic activity is associated with lower risk of collision, higher flow-through traffic activity (excluding traffic from major thoroughfares) is associated with higher risk of collision. We interpret the former as very likely a proxy of parents' frequency of chauffeuring children to school, and the latter an illustration of the spatial displacement of risk between Toronto neighbourhoods. Our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to account for the externalization of harm experienced by children, particularly in low-income downtown neighbourhoods.

Mapping commuter cycling risk in urban areas.

Cycling is becoming an increasingly important transportation option for commuters. Cycling offers exercise opportunities and reduces the burden of motor vehicle travel on society. Mapping the risk of collision between cyclists and motor vehicles in urban areas is important to understanding safe cyclist route opportunities, making informed transportation planning decisions, and exploring patterns of injury epidemiology. To date, many geographic analyses and representations of cyclist risk have not taken the concept of exposure into account. Instead, risk is either expressed as a rate per capita, or as a count of events. Using data associated with the City of Hamilton, Canada, we illustrate a method for mapping commuter cyclist collision risk per distance travelled. This measure can be used to more realistically represent the underlying geography of cycling risk, and provide more geographically and empirically meaningful information to those interested in understanding how cycling safety varies over space.

Child pedestrian injuries and urban change.

BACKGROUND: The health impacts of rapid changes in urban environments due to economic growth and/or retraction are not widely known. This study looks at the effects of urban change on the risk of child pedestrian injury in Edmonton, Alberta, a city that has experienced large economic and population growth following the expansion of the oil and gas industry in Canada. METHODS: A longitudinal ecological study design was used to model the relationships between several built and social environmental variables and the risk of child pedestrian injury and severe child pedestrian injury between 1996 and 2007. RESULTS: The incidence of child pedestrian injury was stable, but the incidence of severe injury increased over the study period. Areas with higher proportions of families on low incomes had higher injury incidence. While new residential development is associated with a lower incidence of injury in most areas, in poor areas, new residential development is associated with a higher incidence, even after controlling for urban planning features and traffic intensity. CONCLUSION: While suburban areas have a lower incidence of child pedestrian injury, residential development in poorer areas is associated with a higher child pedestrian injury risk. Child pedestrians may be less able to adapt to changes in the urban environment due to rapid growth and increasing income, and as a result, may be at greater risk of injury.