Zonal control on Holocene precipitation in northwestern Madagascar based on a stalagmite from Anjohibe.

The Malagasy Summer Monsoon is an important part of the larger Indian Ocean and tropical monsoon region. As the effects of global warming play out, changes to precipitation in Madagascar will have important ramifications for the Malagasy people. To help understand how precipitation responds to climate changes we present a long-term Holocene speleothem record from Anjohibe, part of the Andranoboka cave system in northwestern Madagascar. To date, it is the most complete Holocene record from this region and sheds light on the nature of millennial and centennial precipitation changes in this region. We find that over the Holocene, precipitation in northwestern Madagascar is actually in phase with the Northern Hemisphere Asian monsoon on multi-millennial scales, but that during some shorter centennial-scale events such as the 8.2 ka event, Anjohibe exhibits an antiphase precipitation signal to the Northern Hemisphere. The ultimate driver of precipitation changes across the Holocene does not appear to be the meridional migration of the monsoon. Instead, zonal sea surface temperature gradients in the Indian Ocean seem to play a primary role in precipitation changes in northwestern Madagascar.

Antiphase response of the Indonesian-Australian monsoon to millennial-scale events of the last glacial period.

Antiphase behaviour of monsoon systems in alternate hemispheres is well established at yearly and orbital scales in response to alternating sensible heating of continental landmasses. At intermediate timescales without a sensible heating mechanism both in-phase and antiphase behaviours of northern and southern hemisphere monsoon systems are recorded at different places and timescales. At present, there is no continuous, high resolution, precisely dated record of millennial-scale variability of the Indonesian-Australian monsoon during the last glacial period with which to test theories of paleomonsoon behaviour. Here, we present an extension of the Liang Luar, Flores, speleothem δ18O record of past changes in southern hemisphere summer monsoon intensity back to 55.7 kyr BP. Negative δ18O excursions (stronger monsoon) occur during Heinrich events whereas positive excursions (weaker monsoon) occur during Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadials-a first order antiphase relationship with northern hemisphere summer monsoon records. An association of negative δ18O excursions with speleothem growth phases in Liang Luar suggests that these stronger monsoons are related to higher rainfall amounts. However, the response to millennial-scale variability is inconsistent, including a particularly weak response to Heinrich event 3. We suggest that additional drivers such as underlying orbital-scale variability and drip hydrology influence the δ18O response.

A new interpretation of Madagascar's megafaunal decline: The "Subsistence Shift Hypothesis".

Fundamental disagreements remain regarding the relative importance of climate change and human activities as triggers for Madagascar's Holocene megafaunal extinction. We use stable isotope data from stalagmites from northwest Madagascar coupled with radiocarbon and butchery records from subfossil bones across the island to investigate relationships between megafaunal decline, climate change, and habitat modification. Archaeological and genetic evidence support human presence by 2000 years Before Common Era (BCE). Megafaunal decline was at first slow; it hastened at ∼700 Common Era (CE) and peaked between 750 and 850 CE, just before a dramatic vegetation transformation in the northwest that resulted in the replacement of C3 woodland habitat with C4 grasslands, during a period of heightened monsoonal activity. Cut and chop marks on subfossil lemur bones reveal a shift in primary hunting targets from larger, now-extinct species prior to ∼900 CE, to smaller, still-extant species afterwards. By 1050 CE, megafaunal populations had essentially collapsed. Neither the rapid megafaunal decline beginning ∼700 CE, nor the dramatic vegetation transformation in the northwest beginning ∼890 CE, was influenced by aridification. However, both roughly coincide with a major transition in human subsistence on the island from hunting/foraging to herding/farming. We offer a new hypothesis, which we call the "Subsistence Shift Hypothesis," to explain megafaunal decline and extinction in Madagascar. This hypothesis acknowledges the importance of wild-animal hunting by early hunter/foragers, but more critically highlights negative impacts of the shift from hunting/foraging to herding/farming, settlement by new immigrant groups, and the concomitant expansion of the island's human population. The interval between 700 and 900 CE, when the pace of megafaunal decline quickened and peaked, coincided with this economic transition. While early megafaunal decline through hunting may have helped to trigger the transition, there is strong evidence that the economic shift itself hastened the crash of megafaunal populations.

Millennial and orbital scale variability of the South American Monsoon during the penultimate glacial period.

The presence of large, rapid climate oscillations is the most prominent feature of the Earth's last glacial period. These oscillations are observed throughout the Northern Hemisphere and into the Southern Hemisphere tropics. Whether similar oscillations are typical of prior glacial periods, however, has not been well established. Here, we present results of a study of the South American Summer Monsoon system that covers nearly the entire penultimate glacial period, from 195 to 135 ky BP. We use a well-dated, high-resolution (~50 y) time series of oxygen isotopes to show that the precession of the earth's orbit is the primary control on monsoon intensity. After removing the precession signal we observe millennial oscillations that are very similar in amplitude and structure to the Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles of the last interglacial and that match well a synthetic reconstruction of millennial variability. Time series analyses shows that the most prominent of the observed cycles occur at considerably longer frequency (~3500 y) that the Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles from Marine Isotope Stages 2-4.