ABSTRACT
Long-term predictions of forest dynamics, including forecasts of tree growth and mortality, are central to sustainable forest-management planning. Although often difficult to evaluate, tree mortality rates under different abiotic and biotic conditions are vital in defining the long-term dynamics of forest ecosystems. In this study, we have modeled tree mortality rates using conditional inference trees (CTREE) and multi-year permanent sample plot data sourced from an inventory with coverage of New Brunswick (NB), Canada. The final CTREE mortality model was based on four tree- and three stand-level terms together with two climatic terms. The correlation coefficient (R2) between observed and predicted mortality rates was 0.67. High cumulative annual growing degree-days (GDD) was found to lead to increased mortality in 18 tree species, including Betula papyrifera, Picea mariana, Acer saccharum, and Larix laricina. In another ten species, including Abies balsamea, Tsuga canadensis, Fraxinus americana, and Fagus grandifolia, mortality rates tended to be higher in areas with high incident solar radiation. High amounts of precipitation in NB's humid maritime climate were also found to contribute to heightened tree mortality. The relationship between high GDD, solar radiation, and high mortality rates was particularly strong when precipitation was also low. This would suggest that although excessive soil water can contribute to heightened tree mortality by reducing the supply of air to the roots, occasional drought in NB can also contribute to increased mortality events. These results would have significant implications when considered alongside regional climate projections which generally entail both components of warming and increased precipitation.
