Investigating the Randomness of Passengers' Seating Behavior in Suburban Trains.

In pedestrian dynamics, individual-based models serve to simulate the behavior of crowds so that evacuation times and crowd densities can be estimated or the efficiency of public transportation optimized. Often, train systems are investigated where seat choice may have a great impact on capacity utilization, especially when passengers get in each other's way. Therefore, it is useful to reproduce passengers' behavior inside trains. However, there is surprisingly little research on the subject. Do passengers distribute evenly as it is most often assumed in simulation models and as one would expect from a system that obeys the laws of thermodynamics? Conversely, is there a higher degree of order? To answer these questions, we collect data on seating behavior in Munich's suburban trains and analyze it. Clear preferences are revealed that contradict the former assumption of a uniform distribution. We subsequently introduce a model that matches the probability distributions we observed. We demonstrate the applicability of our model and present a qualitative validation with a simulation example. The model's implementation is part of the free and open-source Vadere simulation framework for pedestrian dynamics and thus available for further studies. The model can be used as one component in larger systems for the simulation of public transport.

Using Hidden Markov Models to characterise intermittent social behaviour in fish shoals.

The movement of animals in groups is widespread in nature. Understanding this phenomenon presents an important problem in ecology with many applications that range from conservation to robotics. Underlying all group movements are interactions between individual animals and it is therefore crucial to understand the mechanisms of this social behaviour. To date, despite promising methodological developments, there are few applications to data of practical statistical techniques that inferentially investigate the extent and nature of social interactions in group movement. We address this gap by demonstrating the usefulness of a Hidden Markov Model approach to characterise individual-level social movement in published trajectory data on three-spined stickleback shoals (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and novel data on guppy shoals (Poecilia reticulata). With these models, we formally test for speed-mediated social interactions and verify that they are present. We further characterise this inferred social behaviour and find that despite the substantial shoal-level differences in movement dynamics between species, it is qualitatively similar in guppies and sticklebacks. It is intermittent, occurring in varying numbers of individuals at different time points. The speeds of interacting fish follow a bimodal distribution, indicating that they are either stationary or move at a preferred mean speed, and social fish with more social neighbours move at higher speeds, on average. Our findings and methodology present steps towards characterising social behaviour in animal groups.

How cognitive heuristics can explain social interactions in spatial movement.

The movement of pedestrian crowds is a paradigmatic example of collective motion. The precise nature of individual-level behaviours underlying crowd movements has been subject to a lively debate. Here, we propose that pedestrians follow simple heuristics rooted in cognitive psychology, such as 'stop if another step would lead to a collision' or 'follow the person in front'. In other words, our paradigm explicitly models individual-level behaviour as a series of discrete decisions. We show that our cognitive heuristics produce realistic emergent crowd phenomena, such as lane formation and queuing behaviour. Based on our results, we suggest that pedestrians follow different cognitive heuristics that are selected depending on the context. This differs from the widely used approach of capturing changes in behaviour via model parameters and leads to testable hypotheses on changes in crowd behaviour for different motivation levels. For example, we expect that rushed individuals more often evade to the side and thus display distinct emergent queue formations in front of a bottleneck. Our heuristics can be ranked according to the cognitive effort that is required to follow them. Therefore, our model establishes a direct link between behavioural responses and cognitive effort and thus facilitates a novel perspective on collective behaviour.

Clinical effectiveness of hymenoptera venom immunotherapy: a prospective observational multicenter study of the European academy of allergology and clinical immunology interest group on insect venom hypersensitivity.

BACKGROUND: Treatment failure during venom immunotherapy (VIT) may be associated with a variety of risk factors. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to evaluate the association of baseline serum tryptase concentration (BTC) and of other parameters with the frequency of VIT failure during the maintenance phase. METHODS: In this observational prospective multicenter study, we followed 357 patients with established honey bee or vespid venom allergy after the maintenance dose of VIT had been reached. In all patients, VIT effectiveness was either verified by sting challenge (n = 154) or patient self-reporting of the outcome of a field sting (n = 203). Data were collected on BTC, age, gender, preventive use of anti-allergic drugs (oral antihistamines and/or corticosteroids) right after a field sting, venom dose, antihypertensive medication, type of venom, side effects during VIT, severity of index sting reaction preceding VIT, and duration of VIT. Relative rates were calculated with generalized additive models. RESULTS: 22 patients (6.2%) developed generalized symptoms during sting challenge or after a field sting. A strong association between the frequency of VIT failure and BTC could be excluded. Due to wide confidence bands, however, weaker effects (odds ratios <3) of BTC were still possible, and were also suggested by a selective analysis of patients who had a sting challenge. The most important factor associated with VIT failure was a honey bee venom allergy. Preventive use of anti-allergic drugs may be associated with a higher protection rate. INTERPRETATION: It is unlikely that an elevated BTC has a strong negative effect on the rate of treatment failures. The magnitude of the latter, however, may depend on the method of effectiveness assessment. Failure rate is higher in patients suffering from bee venom allergy.

Inhibition of augmented muscle vasoconstrictor drive following asphyxic apnoea in awake human subjects is not affected by relief of chemical drive.

Progressive asphyxia, produced by a prolonged voluntary breath hold (end-expiratory apnoea), evokes large bursts of muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA). These bursts increase in amplitude until the asphyxic break point is reached, at which point the bursts are inhibited. We tested the hypothesis that lung inflation, rather than relief from hypoxia and hypercapnia, is responsible for the inhibition of MSNA. Multiunit MSNA was recorded from motor fascicles of the common peroneal nerve in 11 subjects. Following a period of quiet breathing, subjects were instructed to behave as follows: (i) to hold their breath in expiration for as long as they could (mean duration 32.3 ± 1.9 s); (ii) to take a single breath of room air, 100% N(2) or 10% CO(2) + 90% N(2) at the asphyxic break point; (iii) to exhale and continue the apnoea until the next break point; and then (iv) to resume breathing. All subjects reported relief during inhalation of any gas, and could continue holding their breath for a further 30.7 ± 2.8 s with room air, 18.6 ± 1.7 s with N(2) and 11.8 ± 1.8 s with 10% CO(2) + 90% N(2). Despite the exaggerated chemoreceptor drive in the latter two conditions (hence the significantly shorter latencies to the subsequent asphyxic break point), the inhibition still occurred; moreover, there was no significant difference in duration of the inhibition of MSNA following the single breath of room air (7.6 ± 0.7 s), N(2) (6.2 ± 0.6 s) or 10% CO(2) + 90% N(2) (5.5 ± 0.4 s). Following the resumption of breathing, however, the duration of MSNA inhibition (11.0 ± 1.0 s) was significantly longer than that following a single breath. To investigate the involvement of chemoreceptors in the respiratory modulation of MSNA further, the same gases were used during an inspiratory-capacity apnoea, which causes a brief inhibition of MSNA during the inflation phase and a sustained increase during the hold phase. The duration of the apnoea was shortest after a breath of 10% O(2) + 90% N(2), but the latency until the bursts resumed after the inspiratory breath hold were similar for all gases, which suggests that there is no chemoreceptor involvement during the sympathetic silence seen during the inflation phase of inspiratory-capacity apnoeas. We conclude that neither peripheral nor central chemoreceptors are responsible for the inhibition of muscle vasoconstrictor drive following an end-expiratory apnoea or an end-inspiratory apnoea. Rather, we suggest that the inhibition is evoked by stretch receptors in the lungs and/or chest wall, which may also contribute to the longer inhibition associated with the hyperventilation following the subsequent resumption of rhythmic breathing.

The keystone flap: not an advance, just a stretch.

BACKGROUND: The keystone flap is being promoted as an advance in oncological surgical reconstruction. Wound closure with this island flap involves two V-Y advancements toward the center and along the long axis of the island, at right angles to the line of maximum tension when the wound is closed. It is implied that the long-axis advancements enable closure by relaxing the entire flap of skin, allowing it to be stretched more easily along the short axis. We undertook a study to test this hypothesis. METHODS: We measured tension and extension along perpendicular axes in nine freshly excised specimens of human skin. We held the longitudinal axis fixed while stretching the skin along the transverse axis. We then released the longitudinal axis and measured the resultant drop in transverse tension. Finally, we increased the transverse tension to approximately its previous level, and measured the new transverse extension. RESULTS: There was significant interdependence between longitudinal and transverse tensions. The fall in transverse wound tension associated with longitudinal release varied with starting tensions and with the original site and orientation of the specimen. In the five cases where the longitudinal release was from the in vivo length, the mean increase in transverse stretch attributable to the release was 0.6 mm (95% confidence interval 0.1-1.1 mm). DISCUSSION: The increase in transverse stretch that can be achieved by releasing skin from its longitudinal in vivo length appears trivial, raising questions about the rationale for the use of the prototypical (type 1) keystone flap in wound closure.

Natural discretization of pedestrian movement in continuous space.

Is there a way to describe pedestrian movement with simple rules, as in a cellular automaton, but without being restricted to a cellular grid? Inspired by the natural stepwise movement of humans, we develop a model that uses local discretization on a circle around virtual pedestrians. This allows for movement in arbitrary directions, only limited by the chosen optimization algorithm and numerical resolution. The radii of the circles correspond to the step lengths of pedestrians and thus are model parameters, which must be derived from empirical observation. Therefore, we conducted a controlled experiment, collected empirical data for step lengths in relation with different speeds, and used the findings in our model. We complement the model with a simple calibration algorithm that allows reproducing known density-velocity relations, which constitutes a proof of concept. Further validation of the model is achieved by reenacting an evacuation scenario from experimental research. The simulated egress times match the values reported for the experiment very well. A new normalized measure for space occupancy serves to visualize the results.

A rare cause of Takotsubo cardiomyopathy related left ventricular apical thrombus requiring surgery.

We present the case of a 48 year-old male with a history of cystic fibrosis who presented with massive haemoptysis and was later found to have Takotsubo cardiomyopathy. He subsequently developed a left ventricular (LV) thrombus which was successfully removed via a left apical ventriculotomy. Surgical management of LV thrombus related to Takotsubo cardiomyopathy is warranted in a selected population of patients and a left apical ventriculotomy provides good access with minimal complications in the post operative setting.