A less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections.

Model warming projections, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, have a large inter-model spread in both their geographical warming patterns and global mean values. The inter-model warming pattern spread (WPS) limits our ability to foresee the severity of regional impacts on nature and society. This paper focuses on uncovering the feedbacks responsible for the WPS. Here, we identify two dominant WPS modes whose global mean values also explain 98.7% of the global warming spread (GWS). We show that the ice-albedo feedback spread explains uncertainties in polar regions while the water vapor feedback spread explains uncertainties elsewhere. Other processes, including the cloud feedback, contribute less to the WPS as their spreads tend to cancel each other out in a model-dependent manner. Our findings suggest that the WPS and GWS could be significantly reduced by narrowing the inter-model spreads of ice-albedo and water vapor feedbacks, and better understanding the spatial coupling between feedbacks.

Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim.

The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

Unmasking the negative greenhouse effect over the Antarctic Plateau.

A paradoxical negative greenhouse effect has been found over the Antarctic Plateau, indicating that greenhouse gases enhance energy loss to space. Using 13 years of NASA satellite observations, we verify the existence of the negative greenhouse effect and find that the magnitude and sign of the effect varies seasonally and spectrally. A previous explanation attributes this effect solely to stratospheric CO2; however, we surprisingly find that the negative greenhouse effect is predominantly caused by tropospheric water vapor. A recently developed principle-based concept is used to provide a complete account of the Antarctic Plateau's negative greenhouse effect indicating that it is controlled by the vertical variation of temperature and greenhouse gas absorption. Our findings indicate that unique climatological conditions over the Antarctic Plateau-a strong surface-based temperature inversion and scarcity of free tropospheric water vapor-cause the negative greenhouse effect.