Preliminary evidence for chaotic signatures in host-microbe interactions.

Host-microbe interactions constitute dynamical systems that can be represented by mathematical formulations that determine their dynamic nature and are categorized as deterministic, stochastic, or chaotic. Knowing the type of dynamical interaction is essential for understanding the system under study. Very little experimental work has been done to determine the dynamical characteristics of host-microbe interactions, and its study poses significant challenges. The most straightforward experimental outcome involves an observation of time to death upon infection. However, in measuring this outcome, the internal parameters and the dynamics of each particular host-microbe interaction in a population of interactions are hidden from the experimentalist. To investigate whether a time-to-death (time-to-event) data set provides adequate information for searching for chaotic signatures, we first determined our ability to detect chaos in simulated data sets of time-to-event measurements and successfully distinguished the time-to-event distribution of a chaotic process from a comparable stochastic one. To do so, we introduced an inversion measure to test for a chaotic signature in time-to-event distributions. Next, we searched for chaos in the time-to-death of Caenorhabditis elegans and Drosophila melanogaster infected with Pseudomonas aeruginosa or Pseudomonas entomophila, respectively. We found suggestions of chaotic signatures in both systems but caution that our results are preliminary and highlight the need for more fine-grained and larger data sets in determining dynamical characteristics. If validated, chaos in host-microbe interactions would have important implications for the occurrence and outcome of infectious diseases, the reproducibility of experiments in the field of microbial pathogenesis, and the prediction of microbial threats.IMPORTANCEIs microbial pathogenesis a predictable scientific field? At a time when we are dealing with coronavirus disease 2019, there is intense interest in knowing about the epidemic potential of other microbial threats and new emerging infectious diseases. To know whether microbial pathogenesis will ever be a predictable scientific field requires knowing whether a host-microbe interaction follows deterministic, stochastic, or chaotic dynamics. If randomness and chaos are absent from virulence, there is hope for prediction in the future regarding the outcome of microbe-host interactions. Chaotic systems are inherently unpredictable, although it is possible to generate short-term probabilistic models, as is done in applications of stochastic processes and machine learning to weather forecasting. Information on the dynamics of a system is also essential for understanding the reproducibility of experiments, a topic of great concern in the biological sciences. Our study finds preliminary evidence for chaotic dynamics in infectious diseases.

Phenotypic pliancy and the breakdown of epigenetic polycomb mechanisms.

Epigenetic regulatory mechanisms allow multicellular organisms to develop distinct specialized cell identities despite having the same total genome. Cell-fate choices are based on gene expression programs and environmental cues that cells experience during embryonic development, and are usually maintained throughout the life of the organism despite new environmental cues. The evolutionarily conserved Polycomb group (PcG) proteins form Polycomb Repressive Complexes that help orchestrate these developmental choices. Post-development, these complexes actively maintain the resulting cell fate, even in the face of environmental perturbations. Given the crucial role of these polycomb mechanisms in providing phenotypic fidelity (i.e. maintenance of cell fate), we hypothesize that their dysregulation after development will lead to decreased phenotypic fidelity allowing dysregulated cells to sustainably switch their phenotype in response to environmental changes. We call this abnormal phenotypic switching phenotypic pliancy. We introduce a general computational evolutionary model that allows us to test our systems-level phenotypic pliancy hypothesis in-silico and in a context-independent manner. We find that 1) phenotypic fidelity is an emergent systems-level property of PcG-like mechanism evolution, and 2) phenotypic pliancy is an emergent systems-level property resulting from this mechanism's dysregulation. Since there is evidence that metastatic cells behave in a phenotypically pliant manner, we hypothesize that progression to metastasis is driven by the emergence of phenotypic pliancy in cancer cells as a result of PcG mechanism dysregulation. We corroborate our hypothesis using single-cell RNA-sequencing data from metastatic cancers. We find that metastatic cancer cells are phenotypically pliant in the same manner as predicted by our model.

Chaotic signatures in host-microbe interactions.

Host-microbe interactions constitute dynamical systems that can be represented by mathematical formulations that determine their dynamic nature, and are categorized as deterministic, stochastic, or chaotic. Knowing the type of dynamical interaction is essential for understanding the system under study. Very little experimental work has been done to determine the dynamical characteristics of host-microbe interactions and its study poses significant challenges. The most straightforward experimental outcome involves an observation of time to death upon infection. However, in measuring this outcome, the internal parameters, and the dynamics of each particular host-microbe interaction in a population of interactions are hidden from the experimentalist. To investigate whether a time-to-death (time to event) dataset provides adequate information for searching for chaotic signatures, we first determined our ability to detect chaos in simulated data sets of time-to-event measurements and successfully distinguished the time-to-event distribution of a chaotic process from a comparable stochastic one. To do so, we introduced an inversion measure to test for a chaotic signature in time-to-event distributions. Next, we searched for chaos, in time-to-death of Caenorhabditis elegans and Drosophila melanogaster infected with Pseudomonas aeruginosa or Pseudomonas entomophila, respectively. We found suggestions of chaotic signatures in both systems, but caution that our results are preliminary and highlight the need for more fine-grained and larger data sets in determining dynamical characteristics. If validated, chaos in host-microbe interactions would have important implications for the occurrence and outcome of infectious diseases, the reproducibility of experiments in the field of microbial pathogenesis and the prediction of microbial threats.

Oscillations in U.S. COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality Data Reflect Diagnostic and Reporting Factors.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic currently in process differs from other infectious disease calamities that have previously plagued humanity in the vast amount of information that is produced each day, which includes daily estimates of the disease incidence and mortality data. Apart from providing actionable information to public health authorities on the trend of the pandemic, the daily incidence reflects the process of disease in a susceptible population and thus reflects the pathogenesis of COVID-19, the public health response, and diagnosis and reporting. Both new daily cases and daily mortality data in the United States exhibit periodic oscillatory patterns. By analyzing New York City (NYC) and Los Angeles (LA) testing data, we demonstrate that this oscillation in the number of cases can be strongly explained by the daily variation in testing. This seems to rule out alternative hypotheses, such as increased infections on certain days of the week, as driving this oscillation. Similarly, we show that the apparent oscillation in mortality in the U.S. data are mostly an artifact of reporting, which disappears in data sets that record death by episode date, such as the NYC and LA data sets. Periodic oscillations in COVID-19 incidence and mortality data reflect testing and reporting practices and contingencies. Thus, these contingencies should be considered first prior to suggesting biological mechanisms.IMPORTANCE The incidence and mortality data for the COVID-19 data in the United States show periodic oscillations, giving the curve a distinctive serrated pattern. In this study, we show that these periodic highs and lows in incidence and mortality data are due to daily differences in testing for the virus and death reporting, respectively. These findings are important because they provide an explanation based on public health practices and shortcomings rather than biological explanations, such as infection dynamics. In other words, when oscillations occur in epidemiological data, a search for causes should begin with how the public health system produces and reports the information before considering other causes, such as infection cycles and higher incidences of events on certain days. Our results suggest that when oscillations occur in epidemiological data, this may be a signal that there are shortcomings in the public health system generating that information.

Contextual centrality: going beyond network structure.

Centrality is a fundamental network property that ranks nodes by their structural importance. However, the network structure alone may not predict successful diffusion in many applications, such as viral marketing and political campaigns. We propose contextual centrality, which integrates structural positions, the diffusion process, and, most importantly, relevant node characteristics. It nicely generalizes and relates to standard centrality measures. We test the effectiveness of contextual centrality in predicting the eventual outcomes in the adoption of microfinance and weather insurance. Our empirical analysis shows that the contextual centrality of first-informed individuals has higher predictive power than that of other standard centrality measures. Further simulations show that when the diffusion occurs locally, contextual centrality can identify nodes whose local neighborhoods contribute positively. When the diffusion occurs globally, contextual centrality signals whether diffusion may generate negative consequences. Contextual centrality captures more complicated dynamics on networks than traditional centrality measures and has significant implications for network-based interventions.

Single-molecule imaging of transcription dynamics in somatic stem cells.

Molecular noise is a natural phenomenon that is inherent to all biological systems1,2. How stochastic processes give rise to the robust outcomes that support tissue homeostasis remains unclear. Here we use single-molecule RNA fluorescent in situ hybridization (smFISH) on mouse stem cells derived from haematopoietic tissue to measure the transcription dynamics of three key genes that encode transcription factors: PU.1 (also known as Spi1), Gata1 and Gata2. We find that infrequent, stochastic bursts of transcription result in the co-expression of these antagonistic transcription factors in the majority of haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells. Moreover, by pairing smFISH with time-lapse microscopy and the analysis of pedigrees, we find that although individual stem-cell clones produce descendants that are in transcriptionally related states-akin to a transcriptional priming phenomenon-the underlying transition dynamics between states are best captured by stochastic and reversible models. As such, a stochastic process can produce cellular behaviours that may be incorrectly inferred to have arisen from deterministic dynamics. We propose a model whereby the intrinsic stochasticity of gene expression facilitates, rather than impedes, the concomitant maintenance of transcriptional plasticity and stem cell robustness.

Macrophages use a bet-hedging strategy for antimicrobial activity in phagolysosomal acidification.

Microbial ingestion by a macrophage results in the formation of an acidic phagolysosome but the host cell has no information on the pH susceptibility of the ingested organism. This poses a problem for the macrophage and raises the fundamental question of how the phagocytic cell optimizes the acidification process to prevail. We analyzed the dynamical distribution of phagolysosomal pH in murine and human macrophages that had ingested live or dead Cryptococcus neoformans cells, or inert beads. Phagolysosomal acidification produced a range of pH values that approximated normal distributions, but these differed from normality depending on ingested particle type. Analysis of the increments of pH reduction revealed no forbidden ordinal patterns, implying that the phagosomal acidification process was a stochastic dynamical system. Using simulation modeling, we determined that by stochastically acidifying a phagolysosome to a pH within the observed distribution, macrophages sacrificed a small amount of overall fitness to gain the benefit of reduced variation in fitness. Hence, chance in the final phagosomal pH introduces unpredictability to the outcome of the macrophage-microbe, which implies a bet-hedging strategy that benefits the macrophage. While bet hedging is common in biological systems at the organism level, our results show its use at the organelle and cellular level.