ABSTRACT
Background Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has a mortality rate as high as 40%. Early identification of SAP is required to appropriately triage and direct initial therapies. The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model that identifies patients at risk for developing SAP of patients managed according to a guideline-based standardized early medical management (EMM) protocol. Methods This single-center study included all patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis (AP) and managed with the EMM protocol Methodist Acute Pancreatitis Protocol (MAPP) between April 2017 and September 2022. Classification and regression tree (CART®; Professional Extended Edition, version 8.0; Salford Systems, San Diego, CA), univariate, and logistic regression analyses were performed to develop a scoring system for AP severity prediction. The accuracy of the scoring system was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results A total of 516 patients with mild (n=436) or moderately severe and severe (n=80) AP were analyzed. CART analysis identified the cutoff values: creatinine (CR) (1.15 mg/dL), white blood cells (WBC) (10.5 × 109/L), procalcitonin (PCT) (0.155 ng/mL), and systemic inflammatory response system (SIRS). The prediction model was built with a multivariable logistic regression analysis, which identified CR, WBC, PCT, and SIRS as the main predictors of severity. When CR and only one other predictor value (WBC, PCT, or SIRS) met thresholds, then the probability of predicting SAP was >30%. The probability of predicting SAP was 72% (95%CI: 0.59-0.82) if all four of the main predictors were greater than the cutoff values. Conclusions Baseline laboratory cutoff values were identified and a logistic regression-based prognostic model was developed to identify patients treated with a standardized EMM who were at risk for SAP.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: We aimed to define perfect care index (PCI) metrics and to evaluate whether implementation of standardized order sets would improve outcomes without increasing hospital-based charges in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). METHODS: This is a retrospective, pre-post, observational study measuring clinical quality, processes of care, and hospital-based charges at a single tertiary care center. The first data set included AP patients from August 2011 to December 2014 (n = 219) before the implementation of a standardized order set (Methodist Acute Pancreatitis Protocol [MAPP]) and AP patients after MAPP implementation from January 2015 to September 2018 (n = 417). The second data set included AP patients (n = 150 in each group) from January 2013 to September 2014 (pre-MAPP) and January 2018 to September 2019 (post-MAPP) to evaluate perfect care between the 2 cohorts after controlling for systemic inflammatory response syndrome at baseline. Length of stay, PCI, and hospital-based charges were measured. RESULTS: The post-MAPP cohort had a significantly shorter length of stay (median, 3 days vs 4 days; P = 0.01). In the second data set, PCI significantly increased after implementation of MAPP order sets (5.3%-35.3%, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The MAPP order sets increased the value of care by improving clinical outcomes without increasing hospital-based charges.
