Development of a new score for early mortality prediction in trauma ICU patients: RETRASCORE.

BACKGROUND: Severity scores are commonly used for outcome adjustment and benchmarking of trauma care provided. No specific models performed only with critically ill patients are available. Our objective was to develop a new score for early mortality prediction in trauma ICU patients. METHODS: This is a retrospective study using the Spanish Trauma ICU registry (RETRAUCI) 2015-2019. Patients were divided and analysed into the derivation (2015-2017) and validation sets (2018-2019). We used as candidate variables to be associated with mortality those available in RETRAUCI that could be collected in the first 24 h after ICU admission. Using logistic regression methodology, a simple score (RETRASCORE) was created with points assigned to each selected variable. The performance of the model was carried out according to global measures, discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: The analysis included 9465 patients: derivation set 5976 and validation set 3489. Thirty-day mortality was 12.2%. The predicted probability of 30-day mortality was determined by the following equation: 1/(1 + exp (- y)), where y = 0.598 (Age 50-65) + 1.239 (Age 66-75) + 2.198 (Age > 75) + 0.349 (PRECOAG) + 0.336 (Pre-hospital intubation) + 0.662 (High-risk mechanism) + 0.950 (unilateral mydriasis) + 3.217 (bilateral mydriasis) + 0.841 (Glasgow ≤ 8) + 0.495 (MAIS-Head) - 0.271 (MAIS-Thorax) + 1.148 (Haemodynamic failure) + 0.708 (Respiratory failure) + 0.567 (Coagulopathy) + 0.580 (Mechanical ventilation) + 0.452 (Massive haemorrhage) - 5.432. The AUROC was 0.913 (0.903-0.923) in the derivation set and 0.929 (0.918-0.940) in the validation set. CONCLUSIONS: The newly developed RETRASCORE is an early, easy-to-calculate and specific score to predict in-hospital mortality in trauma ICU patients. Although it has achieved adequate internal validation, it must be externally validated.

Machine learning techniques for mortality prediction in critical traumatic patients: anatomic and physiologic variables from the RETRAUCI study.

BACKGROUND: Interest in models for calculating the risk of death in traumatic patients admitted to ICUs remains high. These models use variables derived from the deviation of physiological parameters and/or the severity of anatomical lesions with respect to the affected body areas. Our objective is to create different predictive models of the mortality of critically traumatic patients using machine learning techniques. METHODS: We used 9625 records from the RETRAUCI database (National Trauma Registry of 52 Spanish ICUs in the period of 2015-2019). Hospital mortality was 12.6%. Data on demographic variables, affected anatomical areas and physiological repercussions were used. The Weka Platform was used, along with a ten-fold cross-validation for the construction of nine supervised algorithms: logistic regression binary (LR), neural network (NN), sequential minimal optimization (SMO), classification rules (JRip), classification trees (CT), Bayesian networks (BN), adaptive boosting (ADABOOST), bootstrap aggregating (BAGGING) and random forest (RFOREST). The performance of the models was evaluated by accuracy, specificity, precision, recall, F-measure, and AUC. RESULTS: In all algorithms, the most important factors are those associated with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and organic failures. The LR finds thorax and limb injuries as independent protective factors of mortality. The CT generates 24 decision rules and uses those related to TBI as the first variables (range 2.0-81.6%). The JRip detects the eight rules with the highest risk of mortality (65.0-94.1%). The NN model uses a hidden layer of ten nodes, which requires 200 weights for its interpretation. The BN find the relationships between the different factors that identify different patient profiles. Models with the ensemble methodology (ADABOOST, BAGGING and RandomForest) do not have greater performance. All models obtain high values ​​in accuracy, specificity, and AUC, but obtain lower values ​​in recall. The greatest precision is achieved by the SMO model, and the BN obtains the best recall, F-measure, and AUC. CONCLUSION: Machine learning techniques are useful for creating mortality classification models in critically traumatic patients. With clinical interpretation, the algorithms establish different patient profiles according to the relationship between the variables used, determine groups of patients with different evolutions, and alert clinicians to the presence of rules that indicate the greatest severity.

A prospective pilot study using metabolomics discloses specific fatty acid, catecholamine and tryptophan metabolic pathways as possible predictors for a negative outcome after severe trauma.

BACKGROUND: We wanted to define metabolomic patterns in plasma to predict a negative outcome in severe trauma patients. METHODS: A prospective pilot study was designed to evaluate plasma metabolomic patterns, established by liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry, in patients allocated to an intensive care unit (in the University Hospital Arnau de Vilanova, Lleida, Spain) in the first hours after a severe trauma (n = 48). Univariate and multivariate statistics were employed to establish potential predictors of mortality. RESULTS: Plasma of patients non surviving to trauma (n = 5) exhibited a discriminating metabolomic pattern, involving basically metabolites belonging to fatty acid and catecholamine synthesis as well as tryptophan degradation pathways. Thus, concentration of several metabolites exhibited an area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) higher than 0.84, including 3-indolelactic acid, hydroxyisovaleric acid, phenylethanolamine, cortisol, epinephrine and myristic acid. Multivariate binary regression logistic revealed that patients with higher myristic acid concentrations had a non-survival odds ratio of 2.1 (CI 95% 1.1-3.9). CONCLUSIONS: Specific fatty acids, catecholamine synthesis and tryptophan degradation pathways could be implicated in a negative outcome after trauma. The metabolomic study of severe trauma patients could be helpful for biomarker proposal.

Location-dependent effects of trauma on oxidative stress in humans.

Though circulating antioxidant capacity in plasma is homeostatically regulated, it is not known whether acute stressors (i.e. trauma) affecting different anatomical locations could have quantitatively different impacts. For this reason, we evaluated the relationship between the anatomical location of trauma and plasma total antioxidant capacity (TAC) in a prospective study, where the anatomical locations of trauma in polytraumatic patients (n = 66) were categorized as primary affecting the brain -traumatic brain injury (TBI)-, thorax, abdomen and pelvis or extremities. We measured the following: plasma TAC by 2 independent methods, the contribution of selected antioxidant molecules (uric acid, bilirubin and albumin) to these values and changes after 1 week of progression. Surprisingly, TBI lowered TAC (919 ± 335 µM Trolox equivalents (TE)) in comparison with other groups (thoracic trauma 1187 ± 270 µM TE; extremities 1025 ± 276 µM TE; p = 0.004). The latter 2 presented higher hypoxia (PaO2/FiO2 272 ± 87 mmHg) and hemodynamic instability (inotrope use required in 54.5%) as well. Temporal changes in TAC are also dependent on anatomical location, as thoracic and extremity trauma patients' TAC values decreased (1187 ± 270 to 1045 ± 263 µM TE; 1025 ± 276 to 918 ± 331 µM TE) after 1 week (p < 0.01), while in TBI these values increased (919 ± 335 to 961 ± 465 µM TE). Our results show that the response of plasma antioxidant capacity in trauma patients is strongly dependent on time after trauma and location, with TBI failing to induce such a response.

Classification of dermatological disorders in critical care patients: a prospective observational study.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to identify dermatological disorders detected in the intensive care unit (ICU), to analyze their specific characteristics, and to define a useful classification for intensive care physicians. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a prospective, observational study over a 3-year period (2006-2009) in a mixed ICU. This included all patients presenting with dermatological disorders that were detected at the time of ICU admission or developed along the ICU stay. We recorded the specific characteristics of the disorders and its evolution and treatment, which enabled us to classify the different observed conditions. As general variables, we analyzed demographic factors, the principal diagnosis, ICU procedures, the severity score (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II), length of stay, and mortality. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-three patients showed at least one dermatological disorder (9.3%) and were classified into (1) preexisting dermatological disorders, (2) life-threatening dermatologic disorders, (3) systemic dermatological disorders, (4) infectious dermatological disorders, (5) reactive dermatological disorders, and (6) others. CONCLUSIONS: Dermatological disorders are a frequent problem in the ICU, and their recognition is key to set up an appropriate care plan. We propose a classification and description of the different types of dermatological disorders that are most commonly found in ICUs.

Time spent in the emergency department and mortality rates in severely injured patients admitted to the intensive care unit: An observational study.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to identify the determinants of a shorter emergency department time (EDt) in patients with severe trauma (STPs) admitted to the intensive care unit and determine whether EDt influences mortality. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A prospective observational study of STPs (2005-2007) was conducted. With the variables available from the ED, 2 multiple logistic regression models (MLRM) were created: one for the factors associated with EDt less than or equal to median and the other with mortality. RESULTS: A total of 243 patients were included. The mean age was 43 years; 76% were male. The overall mortality rate was 20%. The median EDt was 120 minutes. The independent factors that were associated with the MLRM for an EDt of 120 minutes or less included age less than 60 years, mechanical ventilation, severe traumatic brain injury, and a trauma and injury severity score of 20 or higher. The MLRM for mortality was age greater than 60 years, mechanical ventilation, traumatic brain injury and shock. An EDt of 120 minutes or less was associated with an increased risk of death in the univariate analysis but not in the MLRM. CONCLUSIONS: Patients in the ED with indicators of high trauma severity have a reduced EDt but a higher mortality rate. Advanced age increases both mortality and EDt. With the factors included in the model, EDt was not an independent factor for mortality in STPs.

Stratification of the severity of critically ill patients with classification trees.

BACKGROUND: Development of three classification trees (CT) based on the CART (Classification and Regression Trees), CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection) and C4.5 methodologies for the calculation of probability of hospital mortality; the comparison of the results with the APACHE II, SAPS II and MPM II-24 scores, and with a model based on multiple logistic regression (LR). METHODS: Retrospective study of 2864 patients. Random partition (70:30) into a Development Set (DS) n = 1808 and Validation Set (VS) n = 808. Their properties of discrimination are compared with the ROC curve (AUC CI 95%), Percent of correct classification (PCC CI 95%); and the calibration with the Calibration Curve and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR CI 95%). RESULTS: CTs are produced with a different selection of variables and decision rules: CART (5 variables and 8 decision rules), CHAID (7 variables and 15 rules) and C4.5 (6 variables and 10 rules). The common variables were: inotropic therapy, Glasgow, age, (A-a)O2 gradient and antecedent of chronic illness. In VS: all the models achieved acceptable discrimination with AUC above 0.7. CT: CART (0.75(0.71-0.81)), CHAID (0.76(0.72-0.79)) and C4.5 (0.76(0.73-0.80)). PCC: CART (72(69-75)), CHAID (72(69-75)) and C4.5 (76(73-79)). Calibration (SMR) better in the CT: CART (1.04(0.95-1.31)), CHAID (1.06(0.97-1.15) and C4.5 (1.08(0.98-1.16)). CONCLUSION: With different methodologies of CTs, trees are generated with different selection of variables and decision rules. The CTs are easy to interpret, and they stratify the risk of hospital mortality. The CTs should be taken into account for the classification of the prognosis of critically ill patients.

[Long distance interhospital transport. Accuracy of severity scoring system]. / Transporte interhospitalario de largo recorrido. Utilidad de las escalas de gravedad.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the hospital mortality risk for patients transported from a regional hospital to its second-level reference hospital using several scoring systems: Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), SAPS II and APACHE II. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective observational study of patients transferred from the Sant Hospital in la Seu d'Urgell to the University Hospital Arnau de Vilanova in Lleida, at a distance of 132 km. PATIENTS: Consecutive cohort of 134 patients transferred between October 2005 and July 2007. MAIN VARIABLES: Several data were collected, such as variables on demography, stay, severity score, diagnosis on admission, destination service and procedures, such as mechanical ventilation, inotropics, sedation, neuromuscular blockers and antiarrhythmics. Variable of result was hospital mortality. RESULTS: The average transfer time was 105 +/- 14 minutes; 31.6% of the patients were admitted to an ICU; 16 (11,9%) patients died during hospital stay. The APACHE II and SAPS II scores got significantly higher values in those patients who died. The RAPS and REMS scores showed no significant differences among dead and survivors. The higher the APACHE II and SAPS II scores, the higher the proportion of mortality. The RAPS and REMS scores did not prove to have that tendency. Area under ROC curve was higher for APACHE II (0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.89) and SAPS II (0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.89), compared to those of RAPS (0.59; 95% CI, 0.43-0.75) and REMS (0.63; 95% CI, 0.49-0.78). CONCLUSIONS: The severity of illness measured with APACHE II and SAPS II is able to identify those patients with a higher predictive of mortality. It is a priority to have the right previous stabilization and the adequately trained team to provide care during the transfer, when facing lengthy journey times.

Transporte interhospitalario de largo recorrido. Utilidad de las escalas de gravedad / Long distance interhospital transport. Accuracy of severity scoring system

Objetivo. Evaluar el riesgo de mortalidad hospitalaria del paciente trasladado desde un hospital comarcal a un hospital de referencia de segundo nivel mediante las escalas Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), SAPS II y APACHE II. Diseño y ámbito. Estudio prospectivo observacional de los pacientes trasladados desde el hospital Sant Hospital de la Seu d'Urgell al Hospital Universitario Arnau de Vilanova de Lleida, a 132 km de distancia. Pacientes. Se incluyó a 134 pacientes consecutivos trasladados desde octubre de 2005 a julio de 2007. Variables principales. Se recogieron datos de filiación, estancia, nivel de gravedad, diagnóstico principal, servicio de destino y variables clínicas como ventilación mecánica, uso de inotrópicos, sedantes, relajantes musculares y antiarrítmicos. Se consideró como variable de resultado la mortalidad hospitalaria. Resultados. La media ± desviación estándar del tiempo de traslado fue 105 ± 14 min. El 31,6% ingresaron en una unidad de cuidados intensivos. Fallecieron durante el ingreso hospitalario 16 (11,9%)pacientes. El APACHE II y el SAPS II fueron significativamente más elevados en los pacientes que fallecieron. El RAPS y el REMS no mostraron diferencias significativas entre fallecidos y supervivientes. A mayor puntuación en APACHE II y SAPS II, se observó un aumento proporcional de mortalidad. El RAPS y el REMS no mostraron esta tendencia. El área bajo la curva ROC fue mejor para el APACHE II (0,76; intervalo de confianza [IC] del 95%, 0,63-0,89) y el SAPS II (0,78; IC del 95%, 0,67-0,89) que para el RAPS (0,59; IC del 95%, 0,43-0,75) y el REMS (0,63; IC del 95%, 0,49-0,78). Conclusiones. El nivel de gravedad medido con APACHE II y SAPS II es un método útil para determinar el pronóstico de los pacientes trasladados permitiendo adecuar los recursos sanitarios fundamentalmente ante trayectos prolongados (AU)

Objective. To evaluate the hospital mortality risk for patients transported from a regional hospital to its second-level reference hospital using several scoring systems: Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), SAPS II and APACHE II Design and setting. Prospective observational study of patients transferred from the Sant Hospital in la Seu d'Urgell to the University Hospital Arnau de Vilanova in Lleida, at a distance of 132 km. Patients. Consecutive cohort of 134 patients transferred between October 2005 and July 2007. Main variables. Several data were collected, such as variables on demography, stay, severity score, diagnosis on admission, destination service and procedures, such as mechanical ventilation, inotropics, sedation, neuromuscular blockers and antiarrhythmics. Variable of result was hospital mortality. Results. The average transfer time was 105 ± 14 minutes; 31.6% of the patients were admitted to an ICU; 16 (11,9%) patients died during hospital stay. The APACHE II and SAPS II scores got significantly higher values in those patients who died. The RAPS and REMS scores showed no significant differences among dead and survivors. The higher the APACHE II and SAPS II scores, the higher the proportion of mortality. The RAPS and REMS scores did not prove to have that tendency. Area under ROC curve was higher for APACHE II (0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.89) and SAPS II (0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.89), compared to those of RAPS (0.59; 95% CI, 0.43-0.75) and REMS (0.63; 95% CI, 0.49-0.78). Conclusions. The severity of illness measured with APACHE II and SAPS II is able to identify those patients with a higher predictive of mortality. It is a priority to have the right previous stabilization and the adequately trained team to provide care during the transfer, when facing lengthy journey times (AU)

[Risk factors of the hepatic dysfunction associated with parenteral nutrition]. / Factores de riesgo de la disfunción hepática asociada a la nutrición parenteral.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to describe the incidence of hepatic dysfunction (HD) in our hospital and evaluate the possible risk factors associated with HD development as an improvement of the caring process received by patients treated with parenteral nutrition (PN). PATIENTS AND METHOD: A prospective study of patients (n=994) who required PN during the period 2000-2004. HD is the identification of an increase above 1,5 of the top reference value of alkaline phosphatase (40-450U/l) and gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (11-49U/l) associated with an increase of transaminases (5-32U/l) and a total bilirrubin higher than 1,2mg/dl. RESULTS: The incidence of HD was 4,9% (n=49). Days with PN were significantly higher in the HD group: median (interquartile range): 30 (20-59) vs 15 (8-25) days (p<0.001). In the univariated HD analysis, the variables that reached significant odds ratio were: the critical patient condition, the PN duration, the total calorie contribution higher than 25kcal/kg, to exceed 3g of carbohydrates/kg, to administer more than 0.8g/kg of lipids and to exceed 0.16g of nitrogen/kg. In the multivariated analysis, the variables selected as independent risk factors were: to exceed 3 weeks of PN, to be a critical patient and a contribution over 0.16g of nitrogen/kg. CONCLUSIONS: The present profiles of the patients who will develop HD are those with prolonged PN. These patients undergo processes and critical therapy, where the specialists must monitor, not only calorie contribution, carbohydrates or lipids, but proteins as well.

Factores de riesgo de la disfunción hepática asociada a la nutrición parenteral / Risk factors of the hepatic dysfunction associated with parenteral nutrition

Fundamento y objetivo: el objetivo de este trabajo es describir la incidencia de disfunción hepática (DH) en nuestro hospital y evaluar los posibles factores de riesgo asociados al desarrollo de DH como mejora del proceso asistencial de los pacientes con nutrición parenteral (NP). Pacientes y método: se ha realizado un estudio prospectivo de los pacientes (n=994) que requirieron NP durante el período 2000-2004. Se definió la DH como un aumento mayor de 1,5 veces el valor superior de referencia de la fosfatasa alcalina (40-450U/l) y la gammaglutamil transpeptidasa (11-49U/l), asociado a un aumento de las transaminasas (5-31U/l) y de la bilirrubina total superior a 1,2mg/dl. Resultados: la incidencia de DH fue del 4,9% (n=49). Los días de NP fueron significativamente mayores en el grupo de DH, con una mediana (intervalo intercuartílico) de 30 (20-59) frente a 15 (8-25) días (p<0,001). En el análisis univariado las variables que alcanzaron una odds ratio significativa fueron el estado de paciente crítico, la duración de la NP, el aporte de calorías superior a 25kcal/kg, superar los 3g de aporte de hidratos de carbono por kilogramo, administrar más de 0,8g/kg de lípidos y superar los 0,16g de nitrógeno por kilogramo. El modelo multivariante sólo seleccionó como factores de riesgo independientes: superar las 3 semanas de NP, ser un paciente crítico y un aporte mayor de 0,16g de nitrógeno por kilogramo. Conclusiones: el perfil actual de los pacientes que desarrollarán DH crítico con NP prolongada, en el que hay que controlar no sólo el aporte de calorías, hidratos de carbono o lípidos, sino también el de proteínas (AU)

Background and objective: The objective of this study is to describe the incidence of hepatic dysfunction (HD) in our hospital and evaluate the possible risk factors associated with HD development as an improvement of the caring process received by patients treated with parenteral nutrition (PN). Patients and method: A prospective study of patients (n=994) who required PN during the period 2000¿2004. HD is the identification of an increase above 1,5 of the top reference value of alkaline phosphatase (40-450U/l) and gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (11¿49U/l) associated with an increase of transaminases (5¿32U/l) and a total bilirrubin higher than 1,2mg/dl. Results: The incidence of HD was 4,9% (n=49). Days with PN were significantly higher in the HD group: median (interquartile range): 30 (20-59) vs 15 (8-25) days (p<0.001). In the univariated HD analysis, the variables that reached significant odds ratio were: the critical patient condition, the PN duration, the total calorie contribution higher than 25kcal/kg, to exceed 3g of carbohydrates/kg, to administer more than 0.8g/kg of lipids and to exceed 0.16g of nitrogen/kg. In the multivariated analysis, the variables selected as independent risk factors were: to exceed 3 weeks of PN, to be a critical patient and a contribution over 0.16g of nitrogen/kg. Conclusions: The present profiles of the patients who will develop HD are those with prolonged PN. These patients undergo processes and critical therapy, where the specialists must monitor, not only calorie contribution, carbohydrates or lipids, but proteins as well (AU)

Skin lesions after intensive care procedures: results of a prospective study.

PURPOSE: To define the skin lesions produced by procedures used in the intensive care unit (ICU) and to examine patients 12 months after discharge from the ICU. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a prospective clinical study in the 14-bed multidisciplinary ICU of a university hospital. Iatrogenic skin lesions (ISL) were examined in 316 patients after ICU discharge. RESULTS: A total of 189 patients were interviewed 12 months after ICU discharge. More than 85% of the patients had ISL after being discharged from the ICU. The patients with the highest Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score and longest average stay presented the highest number of ISLs. A total of 93 patients (49%) reported some skin lesions after 12 months. All patients who had undergone surgical tracheostomy reported the presence of a scar, but 4 of 24 patients who had undergone percutaneous tracheostomy reported no tracheostomy scar. Only 22% of all patients reported scars caused by vascular catheter access. About half (54.5%) of the patients reported secondary lesions caused by chest draining, and these were predominantly caused by the large-bore tube drainage. All patients reported the presence of a laparatomy scar. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients had identified skin lesions resulting from ICU procedures. Half of all patients were aware of their lesions and reported them at 12 months. Future research is needed to understand whether these lesions cause problems to survivor's quality of life and whether the lesions lead to increased health care utilization.

Intoxicación aguda por organofosforados tras ingestión de fruta fresca: ¿síndrome intermedio? / Acute orgonophosphate poisoning after fruit intake: an intermediate syndrome?

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